So the number for Greece Deals 1 & 2 are finally emerging and it's a massive one. Here's the tally to-date:
- Deal 1 = €110 billion extended May 2010
- Deal 2 Loans package = €130 billion (though Troika report implies €145 billion requirement)
- Deal 2 PSI package = €107 billion bonds swap
- Deal 2 ECB package = no writedown, but a rebate of profits to NCBs - current level of profits estimated at €11 billion (€50 billion face value of bonds against €39 billion purchase value of bonds)
- Deal 2 Banks support package = the stand by arrangement for Euro area banks €30 billion
Grand total so far: €388 billion (although if NCBs rebate under ECB package above were to go to funding €130 billion Loans package, and if there is no call on Banks support package, this number falls to €347 billion). For comparison, Greek current prices GDP stood at (estimated) €163 billion at the end of 2011 or 42% of the Deals 1 & 2 combined worth.
The numbers are one thing and undoubtedly massive. However, I believe the real question is does the EU (Germany, Holland, ?) want Greece in the Euro or not. It's impossible for Greece to come off life support without growth. However, here in Greece, where the smoking ban and the law for the compulsory wearing of motorcycle helmets is not enforced,there is no way the trade unions will be confronted by the government in relation to the privatisation of the electric company, for example. Hence the question - is the memorandum designed for Greece to fail?
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