29/06/2011: Live Register - June 2011

Live Register figures for June are out, so let's updated the charts.

Headline numbers are for implied standardised unemployment rate which is up in June to 14.2% from 14.1% in May. Remember, this change is reflective of the past adjustments made to the Live Register-implied standardised unemployment rate made on the foot of latest QNHS-derived official unemployment rate which in Q1 2011 stood at 14.0%.

So:

• Standardized unemployment rate was driven up by 2,900 new entrants to seasonally adjusted LR (+0.7% mom)
• Overall in June 2011 there were 457,948 people signing on the Live Register (not seasonally adjusted) -- an increase of 5,066 (+1.1%) yoy. In May 2011, yoy increase was 3,025 (+0.7%)
• Increase in the first 6 months of the year was 37,420(+9.0%) relative to the first six months of 2010. Obviously, that is down from a massive jump of 194,651 (+88.2%) in Live Register for the first six months period between 2009 and 2010

In seasonally adjusted terms: there was a 5,000 (+1.13%) increase in the numbers on Live Register in June 2011 relative to June 2010. May 2011 increase on May 2010 was 2,900 (+0.66%). Taking 3-mo MA: current 3mo MA (Q2) rose 0.604% on previous 3-mo period (Q1) and current (Q2) 3mo average is up 0.925% yoy. This suggests renewed acceleration, albeit weak, in LR numbers. Monthly increases in LR were 2,900 (seasonally adjusted) for June and May, a decrease of 600 in April and a rise of 1,000 in March. Not an exceptional level of volatility in the series to suggest general upward trend. Since January 1, 2011 we have added 5,300 to the seasonally adjusted Live Register figures.

Some other results from the latest release:

• Seasonally adjusted, there was a monthly increases of 2,000 males and 900 females, but year on year the number of females on LR has risen by 3.8% (+5,975) while the number of males is down 0.3% (-909). In the six months through June 2010, 15,797 (+11.3%) females were added to the LR against 21,623 (+7.9%) males
  
• Perhaps expected, but extremely worrisome is the rise of long term claimants by 49,448 in the year to June 2011, in the words of CSO: "bringing to 40.8% the number of claimants that have now been on the Live Register for one year or more. In June 2010 long term claimants made up just over 30% of the total Live Register." The problem with is that long duration of unemployment spell implies structural unemployment, with requisite loss of skills, continuity of experience and subsequently reduced employability.
• Youth unemployment has eased somewhat in June. LR for those under 25 years of age has fallen 4,500 year on year (-5.18%), but zero percent mom. In May 2011, yoy decline in this category was 4,800 (-5.50%), so not exactly an improving trend here. But at least some good news. In contrast, LR for those 25 years of age and over increased 9,500 yoy (+2.68%), against May 2011 yoy increase of 7,600 (+2.15%).

• Numbers of casual and part-time workers on LR increased 6,526 yoy (+8.23%) in June, up from the increase of 6,058 (+7.68%) in May, suggesting that the overall quality of employment gained by LR signees is low. Current 3mo average yoy rise is 8.04% against previous 3mo average rise of 7.82%. Not dramatic, but certainly not signaling any improvement in jobs creation quality.
• Lastly, the numbers of non-Irish nationals on LR has risen by 76 in June 2011 relative to June 2010 (+0.1%) while the number of Irish nationals was up 4,990 (+1.33%). In May 2011, yoy changes in these two groups were: -1,091 (-1.40%) and +4,116 (1.14%). 3mo averages also suggest strong divergence in LR in favour of lower non-Irish nationals participation and higher Irish nationals participation.