Updating leading indicator data for Euro area growth from Eurocoin:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuwqgbMF_YxaYcIMBhKf8KP-tMVCksvfJjEZRfTtc_hlBLvM6B81qXeNRh4dVV1_DkEPWsLtgE82Nd980SiQfS9ho8jE54fIN7dalPZttOfep-zzWnRvvkzqV_jQRA3j87trYdquwwOWlh/s280/Picture2.png)
Having posted bang on forecast for September (forecast was 0.34 and this is what the final number came in at), I missed October turning point. The latest uplift suggests growth of 0.9% in Q3, but I am not convinced for a number of reasons:
- Growth in the lead indicator is driven strongly by the EU Comm survey of business expectations which has been trending strongly up since Feb 2010. In the mean time, PMIs-based expectations metric is showing a renewed expectation for a slowdown.
- Consumer confidence surveys are flat.
- Exports (to August) are down
So I am still sticking to Q3/Q4 growth at 0.2-0.25%
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