Friday, September 24, 2010

Economics 24/9/10: Double Dip is now official

With a slight delay - here are the latest figures from the Quarterly National Accounts released yesterday.

The headline number is GDP double dip - Q2 2010 posted a decline in real GDP of 1.2%, deeper than the decline in GNP (-0.3%), signaling weakening side of the external economy.
In constant market prices and seasonally adjusted, Q2 GDP stood at €41,130mln down 1.81% on Q2 2009 and -1.21% on Q12010. Cumulative H1 2010 GDP was 1.28% below H1 2009. Despite shallower contraction in GNP, domestic income has suffered a much deeper contraction in the year to date. Quarter on quarter contraction in GNP between Q1 2010 and Q2 2010 was 0.278%, year on year GNP fell 4.05% in Q2 2010. H1 2010 GNP was 4.42% below H1 2009.

Let's put this into a perspective. Over the course of H1 2010, Irish economy lost €3,087mln in income. Per latest QNHS, there were 1,859,100 people in employment in the country, which means that our economic loss in H1 2010 amounted to €1,660 per working person. Since H1 2007, our economic losses total €13,078mln or €7,035 per working person. Annualized losses in national income now run at roughly €14,000 per working person since the Great Recession began.

The gap between GDP and GNP has narrowed as a result of horrific performance of GDP:
The slight recovery in GDP/GNP gap is, of course of little comfort.

Core components by sectors:

Spending and investment remain depressed:
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2 comments:

  1. ottogunscheSeptember 24, 2010

    Thanks for this analysis, Constantin.

    The governments solution to this latest set of nad economic news is to try to persuade people to spend their money so as to try to inflate GNP.

    We're in a deflationary debt dance where people are afraid to spend because they're uncertain as to what the future holds.
    I would also contend that the public do not have any confidence in the policy taken by government to try to deal with the economic crisis that this country is facing.

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  2. @BrianMcsSeptember 25, 2010

    24 September, 2010:
    "It is clear that the coordinated measures taken by Government to improve competitiveness, tackle the public finances, fix the banking system and create jobs are paying off."
    No, not Comical Ali.
    Batt O'Keefe.
    Yes, I am serious.
    Don't believe me? Take a look yourself:
    http://bit.ly/aijKCC

    ReplyDelete