Just in case anyone reading the vitriolic blogosphere stuff about my conclusions questioning the 'turn around' in the Irish economy based on the 'nominal data' (apparently there are people out there capable of commenting on economy, yet unable to read in plain English), here's another take on our 'turning the corner' path. This time from the bond markets: 10-year bond yields for Ireland (red) and Portugal (black) - hat tip to Brian:
Notice Ireland hanging above Portugal in the chart, and notice the path we took since January 2010.
My entire analysis of Irish data to date is consistent with the markets pricing of Irish economy. So either a couple of nameless commentators on Irish posting boards are off in their views of reality, or the entire market is plain wrong. What was it, that someone once said about doing something against the gale force wind?
Notice Ireland hanging above Portugal in the chart, and notice the path we took since January 2010.
Ireland is black and Portugal is red on that chart, i assume your statement to the contrary is a typo as your subsequent analysis of Ireland "hanging above Portugal" is consistent with reality.
ReplyDeleteWhat i don't understand is why the narrowing and indeed passing of bond yields between Ireland and Portugal is a sign of lack of market confidence in Ireland. Clearly the market is indicating a decreasing level of confidence in Portugal relative to Ireland.