Tuesday, December 11, 2012

11/12/2012: Ireland and EU27 Construction sector activity Q3 2012


On foot of the previous post looking at Q3 2012 data for Construction and Building Sector activity in Ireland, here are some international comparatives.

Keep in mind the mental key to decoding these: per Irish Government and a host of its 'analysts', Ireland has delivered an economic turnaround sometime back in early 2012 and our economy has stabilized. We are not Greece. In fact, per claims, we are the best performing economy in the Euro area periphery.

With the above in mind, chart below shows Ireland's Building & Construction Sector performance with index normalized at 100=2005, set against the backdrop of the 'Peripheral' Euro area states:


Pretty clearly, we are 'unique' in the periphery as being so far the worst performing economy in terms of Building & Construction. Now, let's recall that in Ireland, Building & Construction are about the only conduits for household investment. Also, let's recall that household investment is usually seen as the leading indicator of cyclical turnarounds.

Now, to the full EU27 comparative:


And again, by far, Ireland is the worst performer in the above. In fact, based on 2012 data through Q3:

  • Ireland's index of construction activity is currently at 20.85, down on 2011 index of 23.4 and down on pre-crisis peak of 103.6. 
  • Which means that Irish activity index is now down to the absolute lowest in the EU27. Worse, our index reading is worse than Greece's (37.7 or 81% ahead of Ireland's). 
  • We are 44.7% below Greece, 53.2% below Spain, 62.7% below Portugal and 73.2% below Italy.



So that 'turnaround' or in Hillary Clinton's words 'rebound', then... certainly not to be seen in Building & Construction sector.

11/12/2012: Construction Sector Activity in Ireland - Q3 2012



Horrible numbers out today for the Irish Building & Construction sector.

Per CSO: "The volume of output in building and construction was 4.2% lower in the third quarter of 2012 when compared with the preceding period. This reflects decreases of 5.3%, 2.4% and 1.9% respectively in the volume of residential building, civil engineering and non-residential building. The change in the value of production for all building and construction was -2.1%. On an annual basis, the volume of output in building and construction decreased by 10.8% in the third quarter of 2011. The value of production decreased by 8.5% in the same period."

Now some details:

  • Value Index for ex-Civil Engineering work stood at 17.5 in Q3 2012 (100=2005 activity levels), down 15.5% y/y, marking 23rd consecutive quarter of declines (! give that number a thought).
  • Worse, ex-Civil Engineering Value index is down 2.23% q/q, down 10.15% for Q2-Q3 2012 compared to Q4 2011-Q1 2012 6mo periods and down 14.5% for the 6 months through Q3 2012 compared to same period in 2011.
  • The rate of annual decline in the index has accelerated since Q4 2011.
  • Volume Index for ex-Civil engineering work fell to 15.5 in Q3 2012 from 15.9 in Q2 2012. The Index is now also down consecutive 23 quarters. The annual rate of decline continued to accelerate for the fourth quarter in a row.
  • In 6 months through Q3 2012 index fell 15.82% compared to same period of 2011. Quarterly index change is -2.52%.
  • Relative to peak, Value Index in ex-Civil Engineering sector is now at 15.39% and Volume Index is at 14.57%.

In Civil engineering sector things are bouncing at the bottom - a pattern that is now running solidly from Q3 2010:

  • Value Index for Civil engineering slipped to 63.0 from 64.6 in Q3 2012 compared to Q2 2012, marking a decline of 2.48% q/q. However, due to massive jump in Q2 (+16.2% y/y), index is still 9.2% ahead of Q3 2011 reading. This side of the Index is likely to suffer in 2013 due to Budget measures on capital spending.
  • Volume Index of Civil Engineering also fell from 57.5 in Q2 2012 to 56.1 in Q3 2012 (-2.43% q/q), although the index is up 7.9% y/y in Q3 2012 (due to a one-off substantial rise of 14.8% in Q2 2012).


Overall, based on simple averages, activity in Civil engineering remained broadly unchanged - at absolute lows - since Q3 2010, averaging between 63.3 for the Value Index and 56.3 for the Volume Index. This dynamic is simply inconsistent with any talk about economic turnaround.


Misery comparatives for the sector are self-evident when looking at residential and non-residential indices:



  • Value of Residential Construction reached another historical low in Q3 2012 - hitting 8.2, down from 8.5 in Q2 2012. This means that activity by value in this sub-sector is now down 91.8% on 2005 levels or 92.8% on pre-crisis peak. The Index has been posting annual rates of decline in every quarter since Q1 2007, or 23 quarters in a row. The rate of decline (y/y) also accelerated since Q1 2012.
  • Volume of Residential Construction is down from 7.6 in Q2 2012 to 7.2 in Q3 2012. Again, this implies that volume index is now down 92.8% on 2005 level and 93.0% down on pre-crisis peak. Annual rate of decline accelerate to 20% in Q3 2012, the highest rate in 4 quarters. The index has now posted 26 consecutive quarters of annual declines.
  • Non-residential Construction Value Index fell from 53.5 in Q2 2012 to 52.5 in Q3 2102, with annual rate of decline accelerating to 15.5% in Q3 2012, marking third consecutive quarter of annual declines. The index is now 57.4% down on pre-crisis peak.
  • Non-residential Construction Volume Index is down from 47.5 in Q2 2012 to 46.6 in Q3 2012, marking an accelerated annual rate of decrease of 16.3% in Q3. The Index is now down 58.4% on pre-crisis peak.

If anything the above dynamics clearly show that the rates of activity collapse are accelerating through Q3 2012, nto ameliorating or turning to positive growth. Both series dynamics, therefore, are consistent with worsening of economic conditions, not stabilization or a turnaround.

I will blog on European countries comparatives in the next post.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

9/12/2012: Two stunning visualizations


Two stunningly insightful and elegant visualizations:

The first one on numbers factorization: http://www.datapointed.net/visualizations/math/factorization/animated-diagrams/

And the second one on the spread of printing and publishing:
http://exp.lore.com/post/37413824753/remarkable-harvard-visualization-of-the-rise-of

9/12/2012: ListGate and journalistic biases


Breda O'Brien's piece on the issue of press and media independence published today by the Irish Times is likely to provoke - over the next few days - some heated polemic both in the media and amongst the readers. Knowing the level of vitriol that is out there toward the views of various opinion writers, opinion makers and journalists (including those who combine all three endeavors in one person) in our divided society, it is not my intention to start or re-direct the above polemic. I hold my own views, and on some issues, I prefer to keep these views private.

But I would like to make an observation or two on the issue of media independence, reporting biases and personal beliefs. These come from my own experience, both as a person occasionally / often writing for press, and as a person who used to hold a position of an editor of a publication.

Based on these experiences, and a bunch of my on biases, undoubtedly, I must say that the #listgate 'scandal' is misplaced.

Journalists have a right to hold their own beliefs and they have a right to express these beliefs freely. That these two inalienable rights can create a conflict with the ethos and ethics of independent reporting is a natural matter of life. These conflicts cannot be legislated against or regulated against without destroying these rights. Nor, for that precise reason, should such legislating or regulating be contemplated in the society that supports freedom and liberty.

A journalist has a right - an inalienable right - to attend any legal demonstration or join a legal organization or partake in a legal action of their choice. Full stop. A journalist has a right - an inalienable right - to express their view on any subject relating to any organization, action or demonstration. Including a right to express such opinion in public domain, including via media and press.

The boundary between independence of reporting and personal opinion bias is not established by whether a journalist has personal beliefs or whether a journalist chooses to express such beliefs. That boundary is not established by a journalist attending as a participant any event, or if she or he is tweeting about it or reporting on the events which can be coincident or contradictory with a journalist's personal opinion. Neither is the Daniel Kahneman's theory of how our brains work relevant to the ex ante analysis (it can be relevant to the ex post analysis, however) of what constitutes a risk factor in generating biased reporting.

That boundary is established by the nature and quality of reporting itself. If reporting is biased, then the boundary of professionalism and independence is crossed. If reporting is straight down the line, factual and un-emotive, then no boundary is broken.

The core problem, therefore, is not in the bais itself, but in the source of potential bias in Irish journalism. In my view, that source is media users' expectation that journalists can or should be opinion formers, cultivated by

  • preferences for complexity avoidance amongst the readers that vests journalists with a professional license to 'explain the world' to readers / viewers, plus
  • preferences of the journalists to shape their profession away from being a facilitator of newsflow (lowly task of reporting, reserved for the often despised wire services), toward being creators of content. 
The former implies immense amount of trust placed at the hands of the journalists by the public, while the latter implies a natural incentive to 'professionalise' opinion formation as a part of journalism.

Journalists should not - in either a professional capacity or in personal - be vested with a license to be intellectuals. No one should. Neither an academic, nor a legal professional, nor any other professional or indeed anyone. Formation and influencing of public opinion is the domain for all, not a domain for a single or a handful of professions. The game is up for Ireland's intellectual elite when one considers the representation of opinion in Irish press. Indeed, the game is up for virtually all press on the same basis.

In Ireland, the readers expect not reporting of news, but production of opinion from our press. And too often our press obliges to reflect these preferences. Thus, pages of newspapers and our airways are filled with journalists interviewing journalists and reporting on what other journalists expressed in their opinion articles. We have cross-media population of opinion writers whose only claim to knowledge they attempt to communicate and expand is that they acquire or collate opinions of others during their performance of their professional duties.

Take a look at economics - the field I am familiar with - as an example. How many economics commentators in this country have requisite training to understand an item of modern economic research? Outside those who only produce occasional opinion articles - a tiny handful. How many economics commentators in this country today run their own databases, maintain rigorous updating of their analysis, collate real data and are able to analyse that data using modern economics tools? Amongst regular commentators on economics - a tiny handful.

Thus, regular 'economics' opinion writers (as opposed to occasional ones) are confined to the realm of journalists covering economics pontificating on economics matters. They do so not from the basis of opening their own databases and tracking their own trends analysis, research (either published or maintenance, peer-reviewed or simply original), but from the absis of what they glimpse from either interviews or conversations with those who do, or worse - on the basis of un-cited sources. In volume terms, reprinting 'influential' but often commercially biased research, reporting on largely irrelevant or unscrutinised statistics, and creating fake 'balance' by seeking out diametrically opposed positions for commentary in situations where sometimes such positions simply make no sense are all routine occurrences in Irish economic policies debates.

One example comes to mind. During the debates on the issue of Property Tax, majority of airways were filled with superficial positioning of 'Pro-tax' arguments juxtaposed by 'Anti-tax'. At the same time, the real debate amongst professional economists was positioned more along the lines of 'What sort of tax?' and 'What the tax revenue should be used for?' Media-sustained tax and spending policies debate so far has completely failed to even begin addressing the core issue of what is being funded by our fiscal policies, stressing instead levels of funding and individual aspects of funding allocations.

The result of this 'professionalization' of journalists' own opinions is a gradual disappearance of actual reporting of facts and migration of journalism into opinion making, aka promotion of own views. In modern press and media, a reporter or an investigative reporter are the jobs only useful in so far as being instrumental to launch one's career to become an opinion writer.

(There are exceptions, of course, but these are found primarily in narrow specialization, requiring expertise-building, by a handful of journalists covering specialist fields. For example - legal affairs or finance or science and arts coverage.)

In general, however, once the two roles are combined, especially for senior journalists, there is always a risk of the boundary between personal belief and independent reporting being blurred - even if only sub-consciously. It is, thus, the end role of the editors, as guardians of the conduit by which journalists' work reaches the public, to ensure that the values of independent and objective reporting are reflected in a publication, as well as to make certain that opinion, when published, is clearly identified.

The concerns of impartiality and objectivity in reporting, of creating a clear-cut separation between analysis, reporting and opinion, are, thus, concerns of editorial approach. And these concerns are not served well by professionalization of the journalistic license into becoming a license to form opinion.

Kahneman's two-systems brain theory does not imply distortionary damage at the level of journalists seeking a balance between their own beliefs and the objectivity of their reporting. Instead, it implies that the danger - in the form of distorting the process of discovery of truth by the readers - arises from the ethos of publications and media channels editorial positioning. Thus, it is not relevant to the thesis of media biases formation as to how many journalists attend a particular social protest event any more than the knowledge of how many of the journalists have read a particular book or subscribe to a particular magazine. Neither is it relevant as to how many of them use social networks to promote that which they believe in. The only thing that matters is whether these beliefs are actually transmitted to the pages of their publications when they act in an official capacity without a clear warning that these are opinions of the authors. The primary guardian against such dangers is not each individual journalist, but the editor of the publication responsible for objectivity of the publication content.


Friday, December 7, 2012

7/12/2012: Irish Services Index - October 2012


The latest data on Services Sector activity in Ireland for october 2012 is very encouraging and reflective of the underlying growth signaled by previous PMI in Services readings.

Headline CSO-published monthly Services Activity Index for non-financial services in Ireland rose 3.8% m/m in October (after weak -2.4% m/m reading in September) and is now standing at 107.0 - an all-time high. Note, data for these series runs only from October 2010. Year on year the index is now up 10% on October 2012, the first time annual rate of growth hit double-digits expansion in series history. 

Removing some of the volatility, 3mo MA is now at 105.3 - the highest it has ever been. Solid upward push well beyond the already upward-sloping trend is very encouraging. 3mo MA in 3 months through July 2012 was 105.0 - also strong reading, especially compared to 98.7 3mo MA through October 2011.

Growth rates are impressive: 3mo average growth rate through October is 6.7% on annualized basis, ahead of 6.1 reading for 3mo average through July 2012 (although m/m rate is 0.63%, well below previous 3mo average of 1.2%).



Decomposition by sub-sectors is also solidly expansionary:
  • Wholesale and Retail Trade index rose to 115.3 in october, up 6.2% on September (following m/m fall-off of 2.6% in September) and up 10.5% y/y - the fastest pace of annual expansion in series history. 3mo MA is at 111.8 ahead of 3mo MA through July 2012 which stood at 110 and well ahead of 3mo MA through October 2011 (104.7). Average monthly rate of growth remained 1.33% in August-October, same as in May-July 2012. Annual rate of expansion based on 3mo MA series is now at 6.8% well ahead of 6.2% recorded for 3mo through July.
  • All of activity in the wholesale and Retail Trade came in from Wholesale Trade side, with Wholesale Trade index rising to a historic high of 128.7 (+8% m/, and +15.4% y/y). Wholesale activity was booming, which might be a net positive to the holidays sales season. 
  • In ICT services, activity rose 1.2% m/m and 6.5% y/y to 107.7. This only partially reversed the contraction of 2.8% m/m recorded in September 2012. The annualized rate of growth in the sub-sector slowed down to 6.5% in october from 7.3% in September. Thus, 3mo MA series are less impressive in dynamics: 2012 3mo MA through October stood at 107.9, down on 111.3 3mo MA for period through July 2012, but still well ahead of the 3mo MA through October 2011 (101.7). 
  • The sector is pivotal to our exports and the fact that annualized rate of growth fell to the 3mo MA of 6.1% in August-October compared to 12.5% for the 3mo period through July 2012 is a bit of a concern. Still, I am happy to take 6.1% growth in the current global environment.
  • Business Services index rose to 107.8 in October, the highest reading on record, with m/m growth of 6.3% (fully reversing the slide of 1.2% recoded in September). Year on ear the series up 10.7%. 3mo MA series are showing similar performance to the core index: 3mo MA through October is at 104.5, slightly up on 3mo MA through July 2012 (104.0) and significantly up y/y (100.5 recorded in 3mo through October 2011). Surprisingly, Business Services activity m/m expansion rate has slowed down over the last 3 months from the average of +2.3% m/m in May-July 2012 to an average of +0.9% in August-October. However, annual rate of expansion picked up from +0.4% in 3mo through July to +4.2% in 3mo through October.
  • Transportation and Storage sector activity rose marginally from 113.0 in September to 113.4 in October. The sector failed to recover from a 1% m/m slide in September, gaining just 0.4% m/m in October. However, annual rates of growth in the sector are now running at double digits for 7 consecutive months and the rate of expansion has accelerated to 17.6% in October 2012, marking the fastest annual rate of growth in the sub-index history.
  • Accommodation and Food sector activity slipped for the second month in a row. 3.1% m/m drop in September was followed by a 0.3% slip in October. 3mo MA for the index is now at 91.6, against 3mo MA through July of 89.4 and 3mo MA through October 2011 of 87.8. The sector has been a major disappointment in terms of activity since the start of the series.
  • Other Services also showed persistent weakness in recent months - the fall m/m in the subindex of 0.8% in September was moderated by a rise of 0.7% in October, but overall the index is a relative laggard in the entire Services group, performing worse than even Accommodation & Food. 





So on the net, very robust index performance for Services sector activity, with good strengths in terms of 3mo MA trends in Wholesale Trade, Business Services, and Transportation & Storage, relatively steady performance in ICT services and continued weaknesses in Accommodation & Food and Other Services sub-sectors.

Thursday, December 6, 2012

6/12/2012: 2008 and the Confidence Fairy


An interesting paper on euro area levels of financial stress arising from household debt (here). Do note that data on which this is based refers to 2008 survey, so is pretty dated by all possible means.

Recall that back in 2008 no one in the Official Ireland was even slightly concerned with household debt levels. I recall AIB senior banking team making rounds through the brokerage houses in late 2008 blabbing out mythological stuff like: "Irish people do not default on mortgages" and "Not a single cent from the State".

Yet, the data in the link above clearly shows that Ireland was already building up some serious payments problems:

Figure 1: Proportion of the population in a critical situation with respect to arrears and outstanding amounts by poverty status, 2008 (% of specified population) - Source: Eurostat 2008 ad-hoc module 'Over-indebtedness and financial exclusion'
Note that for the vulnerable population group, Ireland sports the 5th highest rate of stress in the EU.

But the really interesting chart is the following one:

Figure 6: Expectation for the financial situation for the forthcoming 12 months, 2008 (%) (NB: Households could also answer ‘to stay about the same’ or ‘don’t know’)
The above shows the following interesting fact: in 2008, Irish people had a pretty reasonably average ratio of optimism to pessimism. This ratio is roughly consistent with that in France, Belgium, Slovenia and the Netherlands. Our optimism for 12 months ahead was higher than the EU27 average and our pessimism levels were below those for any other bailout country. In other words, that confidence fairy was working our way... and the outcome of that was...