24/9/2012: Irish Building & Construction decline v EU27

Last post on Irish Building & Construction sector data for Q2 2012. Here are the comparatives for EU member states based on current activity (through Q1-Q2 2012) compared to 2006-2007 peak levels:

No need to comment on the above...

24/9/2012: Irish Building & Construction Sector Activity Q2 2012

And in another post prompted by @stephenkinsella tweet, here's an update on CSO data for Irish Building & Construction sector activity:

Ex-Civil Engineering:

• Value index fell to 17.6 in Q2 2012 from 18.7 in Q1 2012, marking 5.88% decline q/q and down 15% y/y.
• H1 2012 Value index is down 12.11% on H2 2011 and down 13.78% on H1 2011.
• Value index fell to 15.5% relative to the peak and volume index declined to 14.66% of the peak level
• Volume index dropped to 15.6 in Q2 2012 down on 16.7 in Q1 2012, marking a 6.59% decline q/q and 16.6% decline y/y. 
• H1 2012 volume index was down 13.17% on H2 2011 and down 14.55% on H1 2011.
• Both Value and Volume indices are now down on an annual basis for 22 consecutive quarters.

Civil Engineering:

• Value of Civil Engineering activity rose from 58.4 in Q1 2012 to 62.7 in Q2 2012 (+7.36% q/q) and advanced 11/4% y/y, registering the first annual rate of increase after 15 quarters of contraction.
• H1 2012 value index rose +1.68% on H2 2011 and is up 5.21% on H1 2011.
• Volume of activity also grew from 52.3 in Q1 2012 to 55.8 in Q2 2012 (+6.69% q/q and +9.8% y/y) also breaking for the first time annualized contraction period of 18 quarters.
• H1 2012 volume index rose 0.93% on H2 2011 and is up 4.75% on H1 2011.

Residential and non-residential:

• Residential construction value index fell from 9.1 in Q1 2012 to 8.6 in Q2 2012 (-15.7% y/y and -5.49% q/q). H1 2012 index was down 9.69% on H2 2011 and down 16.51% on H1 2011. Relative to peak, the index is now down 92.45%.
• Residential construction volume index fell to 7.7 in Q2 2012 from 8.3 in Q1 2012 (decline of 7.23% q/q and down 17.2% y/y). The index is now down 92.53% on peak.
• Non-residential construction value index fell from 55.4 in Q1 2012 to 51.5 in Q2 2012 (-14.7% y/y and -7.04% q/q). H1 2012 index was down 14.41% on H2 2011 and down 12.23% on H1 2011. Relative to peak, the index is now down 58.23%.
• Non-residential construction volume index fell from 49.4 in Q1 2012 to 46.0 in Q2 2012 (-15.8% y/y and -6.88% q/q). H1 2012 index was down 15.12% on H2 2011 and down 12.48% on H1 2011. Relative to peak, the index is now down 58.89%.

To sum up: rates of decline are (annually) in double digits and/or accelerating in Q2 2012 in Residential (value and volume), Non-residential (value and volume) and ex-Civil Engineering (value and volume). Residential construction is now at 8.6% of 2005 levels in value terms and 7.7% of 2005 levels in volume terms. Non-residential construction is now at 51.5% of 2005 levels in value terms and 46% in volume terms. Civil Engineering activity is now at 62.7% of 2005 levels in value terms and at 55.8% in volume terms. All activity ex-civil engineering is now down to 17.6% of 2005 levels in value terms and 15.6% in volume terms.

24/9/2012: Euro peripherals Building & Construction activity

Here's a chart updating to latest data index of Building & Construction sector activity in the peripheral euro area states:

As inspired by @StephenKinsella: "Ouch!"

24/9/2012: Italy's debt overhang effect

Via @FGoria on twitter, this chart on Italy's potential GDP and output gap:

Shows brilliantly the cost of Italy's public debt overhang as a steadily falling potential GDP growth and sustained structural recession since ca 1990-1992. Better yet, shows that even cheap liquidity in the naughties failed to produce any real effect on the economy.

Now, keep in mind, Italy is suffering solely from the Government debt overhang, with relatively benign debt levels on household and corporate balancesheets, and with relatively functioning banking system.

23/9/2012: Euro area bonds supply Sept-October 2012

5 weeks from September 14th - cumulated gross supply of sovereign bonds of €70.5bn and €57.3bn of redemptions and coupons:

And supply calendar

All courtesy of Morgan Stanley

20/9/2012: Russian stock market performance for September

Danske analysis of emerging markets performance for September - a nice chart:

Spot RUB - Russian markets.