And it's getting worse. Data taken from eurostat shows that openly advertised procurement contracts for public sector purchasing have risen from 2.6% of Irish GDP in 2005 to 3.4% in 2007 before falling back to 2.2% in 2009.
Sunday, May 15, 2011
15/05/2011: Public procurement
Ireland's "Social Partnership Capitalism" illustrated in one chart:
And it's getting worse. Data taken from eurostat shows that openly advertised procurement contracts for public sector purchasing have risen from 2.6% of Irish GDP in 2005 to 3.4% in 2007 before falling back to 2.2% in 2009.
And it's getting worse. Data taken from eurostat shows that openly advertised procurement contracts for public sector purchasing have risen from 2.6% of Irish GDP in 2005 to 3.4% in 2007 before falling back to 2.2% in 2009.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
14/05/2011: Euro area growth leading indicator
An excellent blog post from the Zero hedge on the ECB's absolutely outrageous treatment of public disclosure rules when it comes to the Greek's Enronesque accounting fraud: here. Absolutely worth a read.
Now, on to the post. Eurocoin - leading indicator of economic activity for the Euro area - needs to be updated to reflect couple of months of my absence from the blog. So here it is:
After couple of months of static activity, the Euro-coin is back on the rise in Q2 2011. This increase in the leading indicator, however, is driven primarily by external trade. Blistering exports performance is in turn driving expansions of manufacturing (industrial output) in Germany, France and now Spain, while Italy's industrial output remains largely stagnant.
Consumers are striking across the Euro area with retail sales for March coming in at -1.0% (-0.8% in EU27) month-on-month. This reverses 0.3% rise in retail sales volumes for Euro area recorded in February (+0.1% for EU27). Year-on-year retail sales fell 1.7% in March 2011 for the Euro area and 1.0% for EU27. Although EU economy has never been explicitly focused on the objective of internal markets improvements for the sake of consumer, these figures suggest that 'exports-only-led' recovery is coming in at the expense of the already weakened European households.
Here are two charts on the latest retail sales indices:
Industrial production latest data, released after euro-coin data, shows some pressures on the manufacturing sector: March 2011 seasonally adjusted industrial production1 fell by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU27 month-on-month. This follows an increase of 0.6% and 0.4% respectively in February 2011. Year-on-year March industrial production expanded by 5.3% in the euro area and by 4.6% in the EU27.
Now, on to the post. Eurocoin - leading indicator of economic activity for the Euro area - needs to be updated to reflect couple of months of my absence from the blog. So here it is:
After couple of months of static activity, the Euro-coin is back on the rise in Q2 2011. This increase in the leading indicator, however, is driven primarily by external trade. Blistering exports performance is in turn driving expansions of manufacturing (industrial output) in Germany, France and now Spain, while Italy's industrial output remains largely stagnant.
Consumers are striking across the Euro area with retail sales for March coming in at -1.0% (-0.8% in EU27) month-on-month. This reverses 0.3% rise in retail sales volumes for Euro area recorded in February (+0.1% for EU27). Year-on-year retail sales fell 1.7% in March 2011 for the Euro area and 1.0% for EU27. Although EU economy has never been explicitly focused on the objective of internal markets improvements for the sake of consumer, these figures suggest that 'exports-only-led' recovery is coming in at the expense of the already weakened European households.
Here are two charts on the latest retail sales indices:
Industrial production latest data, released after euro-coin data, shows some pressures on the manufacturing sector: March 2011 seasonally adjusted industrial production1 fell by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU27 month-on-month. This follows an increase of 0.6% and 0.4% respectively in February 2011. Year-on-year March industrial production expanded by 5.3% in the euro area and by 4.6% in the EU27.
Friday, May 13, 2011
13/05/11: CBofI accounts
Update: Namawinelake blog has an excellent post on the lunacy of Government treasury management exposed by the CBofI's latest accounts - read it here.
On April 7, 1775, Samuel Johnson made his famous pronouncement: "Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel". This statement caught the chord with many other illustrious thinkers. Ambrose Bierce's The Devils Dictionary: “In Dr. Johnson’s famous dictionary patriotism is defined as the last resort of a scoundrel. ...I beg to submit that it is the first." In 1926, H. L. Mencken added that patriotism "...is the first, last, and middle range of fools.”
Whether one can separate a scoundrel from a fool or the first refuge from the last, in recent years we have seen Government officials who have exhibited all four attributes of false 'patriotism'.
No doubt, the decision by the Irish Minister for Finance to instruct NTMA to deposit €10.6 billion of state money with the Irish banks were not supposed to be amongst one of them. However, motivated by a 'patriotic' desire to provide a temporary support for the zombie institutions, artificially increasing their deposits base, this was a significant mistake from the risk management point of view.
Irish banks are experiencing a severe liquidity crisis, as the latest figures from the CBofI clearly show (Table A.2, column E). Lending to Euro area credit institutions has risen from 30 April 2010 levels of €81.25 billion to the peak of €136.44 billion by the end of October 2010 and now stands at a still hefty €106.13 billion (April 29, 2011), down €8.37 billion on the end of March. That's folks - our banks debts to the ECB. As far as banks debts to the CBofI itself are concerned, these have declined by some €12.64 billion to €54.15 billion March to April 2011. Chart below plots combined ECB and CBofI 'assets' that are loans to the Irish banks.
So the banks are still under immense pressure on the liquidity front.
As far as their solvency is concerned, BalckRock advisers estimated back in March 2011 the through-cycle expected losses in excess of €40 billion for just 4 out of 6 Irish 'banks'. Although these relate to 'potential' losses, the likelihood of these occurring is high enough for the CBofI to provision for €24 billion of these.
Either way, Irish banks are not really the counterparties that can be deemed safe.
There is an added component to this transaction - under the deposits guarantee, the Irish Exchequer holds simultaneously a liability (a Guarantee) and the asset (the deposit) when Mr Noonan approved the transaction. Before that, the Exchequer only had an asset. In effect, balance-sheet risk of this transaction was to reduce the risk-adjusted value of the asset it had.
Lastly, the entire undertaking smacks of the Minister directly interfering in the ordinary operations of NTMA which is supposed to be independent of exactly such interference.
So whether Minister's 'patriotism' of supporting Irish banks was the first or the last resort or the first and the last range, the outcome of his decision to prop up banks balance sheets with artificial short-term deposits was an example of a risky move that has cost NTMA its independence and reputation. The move achieved preciously little other than destroy risk-adjusted value of Government assets. Not exactly a winning combo...
On April 7, 1775, Samuel Johnson made his famous pronouncement: "Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel". This statement caught the chord with many other illustrious thinkers. Ambrose Bierce's The Devils Dictionary: “In Dr. Johnson’s famous dictionary patriotism is defined as the last resort of a scoundrel. ...I beg to submit that it is the first." In 1926, H. L. Mencken added that patriotism "...is the first, last, and middle range of fools.”
Whether one can separate a scoundrel from a fool or the first refuge from the last, in recent years we have seen Government officials who have exhibited all four attributes of false 'patriotism'.
No doubt, the decision by the Irish Minister for Finance to instruct NTMA to deposit €10.6 billion of state money with the Irish banks were not supposed to be amongst one of them. However, motivated by a 'patriotic' desire to provide a temporary support for the zombie institutions, artificially increasing their deposits base, this was a significant mistake from the risk management point of view.
Irish banks are experiencing a severe liquidity crisis, as the latest figures from the CBofI clearly show (Table A.2, column E). Lending to Euro area credit institutions has risen from 30 April 2010 levels of €81.25 billion to the peak of €136.44 billion by the end of October 2010 and now stands at a still hefty €106.13 billion (April 29, 2011), down €8.37 billion on the end of March. That's folks - our banks debts to the ECB. As far as banks debts to the CBofI itself are concerned, these have declined by some €12.64 billion to €54.15 billion March to April 2011. Chart below plots combined ECB and CBofI 'assets' that are loans to the Irish banks.
So the banks are still under immense pressure on the liquidity front.As far as their solvency is concerned, BalckRock advisers estimated back in March 2011 the through-cycle expected losses in excess of €40 billion for just 4 out of 6 Irish 'banks'. Although these relate to 'potential' losses, the likelihood of these occurring is high enough for the CBofI to provision for €24 billion of these.
Either way, Irish banks are not really the counterparties that can be deemed safe.
There is an added component to this transaction - under the deposits guarantee, the Irish Exchequer holds simultaneously a liability (a Guarantee) and the asset (the deposit) when Mr Noonan approved the transaction. Before that, the Exchequer only had an asset. In effect, balance-sheet risk of this transaction was to reduce the risk-adjusted value of the asset it had.
Lastly, the entire undertaking smacks of the Minister directly interfering in the ordinary operations of NTMA which is supposed to be independent of exactly such interference.
So whether Minister's 'patriotism' of supporting Irish banks was the first or the last resort or the first and the last range, the outcome of his decision to prop up banks balance sheets with artificial short-term deposits was an example of a risky move that has cost NTMA its independence and reputation. The move achieved preciously little other than destroy risk-adjusted value of Government assets. Not exactly a winning combo...
Economics: Op-ed in the Irish Examiner 12/05/2011
This is the unedited version of my and Declan Ganley's op-ed in yesterday's Irish Examiner.
As you have undoubtfuly heard, I will be moving to a full-time role with StColumbanus AG - a Switzerland-based Asset Management company - on June 1, 2011. I will be setting up economic and financial markets research capabilities within the company and will remain based in Dublin, Ireland. I will also continue teaching in Irish universities and conduct academic research.
This blog will continue its independent existence.
"In December 2010, Olli Rehn joined those of us that had long been forewarning of financial contagion in Europe, when Mr. Rehn declared, “We have to stop the bush fires turning into a Europe-wide forest fire.” Yet the fires continue to rage on, fueled by ever increasing amounts of debt ultimately provided by European taxpayers, an unfairly disproportionate share of them being Irish.
Now, nearly 6 months later, the dead wood of Europe’s financial sector is far from secure against the potential of an even greater conflagration this summer. The ECB-supplied liquidity intended to douse the flames of many local bush fires sparked during the summer of 2010 has grown to proportions few had foreseen – proportions that few are willing to continue subsidizing as evidenced by the growing intransigence of some of Mr. Rehn’s compatriots in Finland who have said, “Enough”.
The Greek spark that initially lit the European forest fires of debt risks is now becoming a consuming fire – after collapse of the interbank lending, many sovereign borrowers today no longer can find a market for their debts. Contagion from the sick banks to the Governments’ balancesheets and now back to the banking system across the EU is nearly complete.
In the same way that planting new saplings is essential for forest management after a major forest fire, there is a need for new institutions to emerge now, in the midst of the crisis, to establish themselves in order to serve the economy in years to come and to grow into a more substantive role as the failed institutions are finally allowed to fail.
St. Columbanus AG is committed to a long-term vision for economic vitality based upon sound business and investment practices in order to create the commercial opportunities for growth and development necessary for a strong European future.
The approach of Switzerland as a global financial center is shifting; the old model of "tax-neutral" capital is fading. A new model of secure "tax-declared" capital is developing, based firmly on the
foundations of sound risk management and long-term investment strategies. Thus, throughout the current crisis, Switzerland continues to provide Europe its traditional role of a safe haven.
St. Columbanus seeks to participate in this push toward tax-declared assets/capital, to learn from it and to develop on the basis of Swiss financial model new products that can address the concerns of today’s clients.
In the past years, we have seen an overemphasis upon derivatives and exotic products that maximize profits for a few people, but to what real benefit of society as a whole? Our own analysis, as well as global market research, clearly show that ordinary investors today are now more concerned with safety, security, long-term growth, transparency and clarity of products and strategies.
On the other hand, failed model of financial engineering has taken hold of the policy responses to the crisis. This makes the world around us inherently less safe. Consider for example the new strikes in Greece as a sign of "social stability" made possible by the efforts to financially engineer Greece's balance sheet?
In our view, Europe today needs competition, and sound financial innovation that is in tune with the clients needs and not with the margin demands of the asset managers. We need to create and to sustain an healthy financial sector. Playing a part in this renewal is the long term vision of our asset management initiative. We will seek to fully participate on several levels in strengthening the fundamental financial landscape across Europe.
Returning to Mr. Rehn’s metaphor, a Forest take generations to grow and only hours to destroy. While a single undertaking like St Columbanus AG cannot be the sole driver of the change required to renew Europe’s financial health, we hope to play a role in this by planting one of the first saplings of the new asset management model.
Declan Ganley & Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev."
As you have undoubtfuly heard, I will be moving to a full-time role with StColumbanus AG - a Switzerland-based Asset Management company - on June 1, 2011. I will be setting up economic and financial markets research capabilities within the company and will remain based in Dublin, Ireland. I will also continue teaching in Irish universities and conduct academic research.
This blog will continue its independent existence.
"In December 2010, Olli Rehn joined those of us that had long been forewarning of financial contagion in Europe, when Mr. Rehn declared, “We have to stop the bush fires turning into a Europe-wide forest fire.” Yet the fires continue to rage on, fueled by ever increasing amounts of debt ultimately provided by European taxpayers, an unfairly disproportionate share of them being Irish.
Now, nearly 6 months later, the dead wood of Europe’s financial sector is far from secure against the potential of an even greater conflagration this summer. The ECB-supplied liquidity intended to douse the flames of many local bush fires sparked during the summer of 2010 has grown to proportions few had foreseen – proportions that few are willing to continue subsidizing as evidenced by the growing intransigence of some of Mr. Rehn’s compatriots in Finland who have said, “Enough”.
The Greek spark that initially lit the European forest fires of debt risks is now becoming a consuming fire – after collapse of the interbank lending, many sovereign borrowers today no longer can find a market for their debts. Contagion from the sick banks to the Governments’ balancesheets and now back to the banking system across the EU is nearly complete.
In the same way that planting new saplings is essential for forest management after a major forest fire, there is a need for new institutions to emerge now, in the midst of the crisis, to establish themselves in order to serve the economy in years to come and to grow into a more substantive role as the failed institutions are finally allowed to fail.
St. Columbanus AG is committed to a long-term vision for economic vitality based upon sound business and investment practices in order to create the commercial opportunities for growth and development necessary for a strong European future.
The approach of Switzerland as a global financial center is shifting; the old model of "tax-neutral" capital is fading. A new model of secure "tax-declared" capital is developing, based firmly on the
foundations of sound risk management and long-term investment strategies. Thus, throughout the current crisis, Switzerland continues to provide Europe its traditional role of a safe haven.
St. Columbanus seeks to participate in this push toward tax-declared assets/capital, to learn from it and to develop on the basis of Swiss financial model new products that can address the concerns of today’s clients.
In the past years, we have seen an overemphasis upon derivatives and exotic products that maximize profits for a few people, but to what real benefit of society as a whole? Our own analysis, as well as global market research, clearly show that ordinary investors today are now more concerned with safety, security, long-term growth, transparency and clarity of products and strategies.
On the other hand, failed model of financial engineering has taken hold of the policy responses to the crisis. This makes the world around us inherently less safe. Consider for example the new strikes in Greece as a sign of "social stability" made possible by the efforts to financially engineer Greece's balance sheet?
In our view, Europe today needs competition, and sound financial innovation that is in tune with the clients needs and not with the margin demands of the asset managers. We need to create and to sustain an healthy financial sector. Playing a part in this renewal is the long term vision of our asset management initiative. We will seek to fully participate on several levels in strengthening the fundamental financial landscape across Europe.
Returning to Mr. Rehn’s metaphor, a Forest take generations to grow and only hours to destroy. While a single undertaking like St Columbanus AG cannot be the sole driver of the change required to renew Europe’s financial health, we hope to play a role in this by planting one of the first saplings of the new asset management model.
Declan Ganley & Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev."
Sunday, March 27, 2011
27/03/2011: Annual GDP and GNP - few lessons to be learned
I haven't had time to update QNA numbers on the blog, but here's a nice preview charts of analysis to come.
First annual GDP and GNP:
When I often say that over the last 3 years we've lost a war, I mean it: relative to peak 2007 levels, our real GDP is down 12%, our GNP is down 16%. Our 2010 GNP clocked the level of 2003-2004 average, erasing 7 years of growth. Our GDP is now at the level of 2004-2005.
What about the composition of our GDP and GNP?
The above is just a snapshot. Here are headline figures:
Now, let's take a look at percentage contributions to GDP and GNP from each line of QNA:
So while economy shrunk, Public Administration and Defence grew in overall importance as a share of GDP.
First annual GDP and GNP:
When I often say that over the last 3 years we've lost a war, I mean it: relative to peak 2007 levels, our real GDP is down 12%, our GNP is down 16%. Our 2010 GNP clocked the level of 2003-2004 average, erasing 7 years of growth. Our GDP is now at the level of 2004-2005.What about the composition of our GDP and GNP?
The above is just a snapshot. Here are headline figures:
- Agriculture, forestry & fishing sector output in constant prices is now 10% down on 2007 (remember - we were supposedly having a boom in this sector in 2010 according to the various CAP-dependent quangoes, and still the preliminary output came out at a miserly €3,328 million - the lowest in 8 years).
- Industry had a better year, with output rising to €48,111 million, up on €45,841 million in 2009, but still 7% down on 2007.
- Building & construction sector shrunk 58% on 2007 levels, posting output worth just €5,754 million in 2010, down on €8,433 million in already abysmal 2009.
- Distribution, Transport and Communications sector shrunk 13% in 2010 relative to 2007. 2010 sector output was €21,509 million against 2009 level of €21,845 million.
- Other services have fared better than other sectors, posting a decline of 6% on 2007 levels. In 2010 the sector brought into this economy €71,828 million against €73,823 million recorded in 2009.
- Public Administration and Defence - the sector that has been allegedly (per our Government and Unions claims) hit very hard by the austerity has managed to "contribute" €6,243 million in 2010 - slightly down on €6,416 million in real euros in 2009. Relative to peak 2007 levels, Public Administration and Defence "contribution" to our GDP/GNP has fallen by a whooping ZERO percent. That's right - zero percent. In 2007 the 'sector' posted GDP contribution of €6,266 million.
- Taxes, net of subsidies, have fallen 31% in 2010 relative to 2007 and 'contributed' just €16,027 million in 2010 compared to €16,807 million in 2009. Tax hikes are working marvels for the Government, then. Keep on the course, Captain!
- Net Factor Income from the Rest of the World has increased steadily from 2007 levels, posting an outflow of -€29,313 million in 2010, up on outflow of -€28,184 in 2009 and a massive 31% above 2007 levels. These outflows represent the GDP/GNP gap that has expanded from 15.17% local minimum in 2006 to 21.67% today.
Now, let's take a look at percentage contributions to GDP and GNP from each line of QNA:
So while economy shrunk, Public Administration and Defence grew in overall importance as a share of GDP.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
19/03/2011: Retail sales & Consumer confidence
In the previous post I suggested that the latest inflation figures do not bode well for 'growth-linked inflation, but signal instead the worst kind of inflation - inflation that is driven by either imports or regulatory factors. Here's more evidence - consumer confidence and retail sales figures:
Larger markers in the above chart show February values - clearly, no sign of demand drivers for price increases anywhere in sight here. Same holds for consumer confidence as a driver.
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