02/02/2011: Credit and Deposits of Irish residents: January 2011

Let's get back to the credit stats released yesterday by the CBofI. This is the second post (earlier post - here - focused on foreign depositors flight), so let's update the core charts and review some monthly changes in the data.

Credit side:

• Irish households credit contracted mom by €948mln in January 2011 (a drop of 0.73%) against a monthly contraction of 5.29% in December 2010 - so deleveraging has slowed down
• Year on year, Irish households total outstanding debt fell to €129,370 mln in January 2011 or yoy decline of €10,392mln (7.44%) while in December yoy decline was 6.97%.
• Irish household's outstanding mortgages amounted to €99,289mln, down in January by €289mln (-0.29%) against a monthly drop of 7.05% in December 2010
• Year on year, mortgages were down 9.78% (or €10,766mln) in January against a yoy decline of 9.65% in December 2010.
• Non-financial corporations outstanding debts amounted to €92,652mln in January up 0.1% mom (+€90mln), but down 35.67% yoy (-€51,363mln).
• Total private sector credit fell 0.57% (-€1,908mln) mom in January (December 2010 saw mom decline of 0.98%) and fell 10.6% yoy (-€39,427mln) in January (December 2010 saw yoy decline of 10.73%).

So on credit side by category:
And growth rates:

Next, deposits for Irish residents (remember - non-resident deposits were highlighted in the previous post linked at the top):

• Total private deposits down 0.82% mom (-€1,387 mln) in January and yoy down 9.05% (-€16,613 mln). Steep. Deposits were down 2.24% mom in December 2010 (8.41% yoy).
• Households deposits contracted 0.7% mom in January (-€663mln) and 5.56% yoy (-€5,531mln). There go our 'savings rates', folks. In December 2010, yoy drop was 4.57% so things are accelerating downward. Month on month deposits were down 0.71% in December 2010.
• Non-financial corporations deposits rose 0.12% (VAT carry overs and seasonal receipts and payments, especially for MNCs being most likely drivers) month on month (+€41mln), but were down 16.57% yoy (-€6,670mln). In December 2010 corporate deposits were down 4.93% mom and 17.42% yoy.
  

Now, let's consider the degree of leverage we carry in this economy:
As charts above show:

• Leverage rose 0.26% mom and fell 1.7% yoy in January 2011 across the entire economy. In December, leverage rose 0.51% mom and fell 3.44% yoy
• Overall leverage trend is up and currently this economy is leverage 199.32%
  
• For households, leverage fell 0.03% mom and 1.99% yoy in January 2011, having fallen 0.04% mom and 2.79% in December 2010. So deleveraginng is slowing down
• Currently Irish households are leveraged 137.69%
• Non-financial corporations leverage was formidable 275.93% in January, down 0.02% on December 2010 and 1.99% on January 2010. In December 2010 corporate leverage was down 0.04% mom and 2.79% yoy. So deleveraging is slowing down for corporates as well.

Deposits composition by maturity:
Clearly, longer maturity has fallen off the cliff and a slight bounce in longer maturities this month follows a catastrophic drop off in months before. This cliff is a clear indication that households are moving cash into shorter maturities - either to withdraw deposits all together or as a form of short term precautionary savings. So:

• Overnight deposits were down -0.9% (-€788mln) mom and -4.42% yoy (-€3,998mln) in January
• Deposits with maturity up to 3 months were down -1.26% (-€197mln) mom and -6.16% (-€1,011mln) yoy in January 2011
• Deposits with maturity up to 2 years were up 1.15% (+€780mln) mom and down -16.67% (-13,374mln) yoy.

Finally, credit cards debt fell 1.84% mom (€53.48mln) and -5.8% (-€175.81mln) yoy in January 2011. Good news for one of the most expensive forms of debt.

02/03/2011: Live Register February 2011

Live register for February is out today and makes for some interesting reading.

Headline figures are mildly encouraging. In February 2011 there were 444,299 people on the Live Register an increase of 7,343 (+1.7%) yoy. This compares with an increase of 5,741 (+1.3%) in the year to January 2011 and an increase of 84,503 (+24.0%) in the year to February 2010.

On a seasonally adjusted basis there was a decrease of 1,700 on the Live Register in 2011. M decrease of 5,800 was recorded in January 2011.

Overall the Live Register has now fallen by 10,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis since its peak in August/September 2010.

Let's update some charts:
To put the LR changes into perspective, consider weekly average changes:
and monthly averages:
Live Register-implied unemployment rate (pretty good measure of unemployment) is now at 13.5% - same as in January:
Now to some numbers in more detail:

• Year on year January 2011 saw increase in LR of 19,300. This has fallen back to 17,800 in February;
• In percentage terms, yoy change in LR in January was +4.522%, which eased to +4.150% in February
• For 25+ year olds, January LR increased by 10,000 year on year (+2.879%), while February increase was 11,300 (+3.272%) - so things are getting better here, but by only 600 mom
  
• For <25 year olds, January 2011 saw a decrease in numbers of 3,400 (-3.908%) yoy, but February decrease was 2,600 yoy (or -3.055%) - an improvement mom of 1,100
  
• Casual and part-time employment increased 5,770 in February (yoy) or +7.277% against an increase of 6,369 in January (+8.286%) - or mom increase of 1,827 (more people taking part time and casual work than the seasonally adjusted drop in overall LR)
• Non-nationals accounted for 79,162 of the total LR count against nationals with 365,137. So non-nationals count increased 635 month on month in February, while nationals saw an increase of 987.
• Non-nationals LR signees numbers fell 2,868 yoy in January (-3.524%) and by 2,104 (-2.589%) in February
• Nationals signees numbers increased 8,609 yoy in in January and 9,447 in February
• The above points on nationals v non-nationals signees imply rather rampant emigration or outflow from the labour force of non-nationals.

All of the decrease in the seasonally adjusted series over the last six months has been recorded for males.

One core problem has been the increasing duration on LR. Month on month, February saw an increase of 2,413 males and 858 females (total of 3,271) of signees on the LR for a year or longer. This contrasts with decreases of 2,610 males and and increase of 961 females with duration under 1 year. This suggests that the unemployment is, predictably, sticky for earlier LR signees.

Finally, separate figures released today by the Dept of Enterprise, Trade & Innovation show that notified redundancies were down 44% year on year in February. In addition, as reported earlier, PMIs for Manufacturing have signaled for the third month running that employers are starting to add jobs in the sector. These two developments suggest that barring some significant shocks, LR is now stabilizing and possibly reverting to a shallow downward trend. This trend, however, still appears to be driven by exits and emigration, rather than jobs creation.

02/03/2011: CB data - Total deposits

In the next few posts I will be covering the data released yesterday by the Central Bank.

Here are two telling charts rarely seen side by side:
Let's spell out some numbers:

• Total deposits from non-residents fell 36.35% year on year in January 2011 (€190.88bn) and 3.71% mom (€12.685bn)
• Private sector deposits from non-residents fell 22.89% yoy (€22.888bn) or 0.79% mom (€0.616bn)
• Total private sector deposits from Irish residents declined 9.05% yoy (€16.613bn) and 0.82% (€1.6387bn) mom
• No media outlet to my knowledge told us just how much distrust in our financial system do foreigners have
  

01/03/2011: Manufacturing PMIs

From NCB Manufacturing PMI report:

“Manufacturing production increased at the third fastest pace in the history of the survey, which began in May 1998. According to respondents, higher output mainly reflected strong new order growth.

Total new business rose at the sharpest pace in more than eleven years in February. New export orders expanded at the second-steepest rate in the series history, with the EU and Asia highlighted as sources of growth.

The second consecutive accumulation of backlogs of work was solid, and the fastest in the history of the series, in line with strong new order growth.

Employment growth hit a four-and-a-half year high in February as firms raised staffing levels in response to higher workloads. Job creation has now been recorded in each of the past three months.

Input cost inflation accelerated for the second month running to the steepest since July 2008. Higher prices for raw materials was the main factor behind increased input costs, with fuel and steel mentioned in particular.

As input prices rose, Irish manufacturers increased their charges accordingly. Furthermore, the marked inflation of output prices was the sharpest in four years.

Purchasing activity increased at the fastest pace since December 1999 in February, in line with rising production requirements. Anecdotal evidence suggested that suppliers had struggled to cope with rising demand for inputs, resulting in delivery delays.

Lead times lengthened markedly again over the month.

Despite a near-record rise in purchasing, preproduction inventories decreased modestly as inputs were consumed by production. Stocks of finished goods also declined in February, albeit only marginally. Panellists reported that post-production inventories were utilised to partly satisfy the sharp rise in new orders."

Nothing to add to this – across the board, strong performance and most encouragingly, expansion in employment prospects is holding over time and even getting stronger.

Perhaps one suggestion going forward - can the folks from NCB get us a breakdown of MNCs led activities from domestic respondents going forward.

Now, updated charts:

28/02/2011: Retail sales for January

Headline stuff: the volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects) increased by 4.6% in January 2011 when compared with January 2010 and there was a monthly decrease of 3.8%. Now, wait, that sounds good?

Not really. Let’s take another shot at that statement: volume of retail sales was up 4.6% yoy in January 2011, but it was down 3.8% on December 2010. In fact, it was down for the third month running, having declined 0.6% in November, then 1.9% in December and now 3.8% in January. The rate of decline is accelerating so far. And at a massive speed: x3 times in November-December and at x2 times in December-January. (Mrs G is putting that bubbly back in the fridge right now).

But what about the value of sales? Remember – CSO likes volume indices cause they tell you how much physical stuff was shifted through the stores. But let’s not forget that retail sales jobs and businesses depend not on volume, but on value of stuff being sold. Exactly the same picture here as in the case of volume. Value of retail sales was up 4.0% on January 2010, but it was down for the third month running (-1.5%) in monthly terms.

Let me toss in another factoid here. December sales were extremely poor in 2010, but not so much in 2009. In fact, December 2010 value of sales was down 4.0% on December 2009. So the rush post-Christmas into sales was much shallower in 2010 than in 2011. Hence, the current ‘boom in retail sales’ announced today by CSO is nothing more than a compensatory run onto the post-Christmas sales racks. (Mrs G is now putting away the celebratory bottle of Sprite back into the fridge).

And one more point – the value of sales index has been artificially boosted by rampant price inflation in several categories of sales where prices are state-controlled or subject to commodities price inflation (see below).

Now to updated charts:
You can see what I meant by the spin above and below (notice the divergence of monthly and annual rates of change):
And just in case you want to see it: relative to peak retail sales are still declining
Faster rate of decline in the volume, of course, is due to rising prices (as mentioned above).

Now to ex-motors sales (or core sales):
Ok, now, if Motor Trades are excluded, the volume of retail sales decreased by 1.2% in January 2011 when compared with January 2010, while there was a monthly increase of 2.7%. Value of sales rose mom 2.6% although year on year there was a decline of 1%. Both value and volume of core sales broke two months declines in November and December. And this is good news. Relative to peak, value of sales is now at 82.21% (up from 80.10% in December 2010) and volume of sales is at 86.5% (up from 84.19% in December 2010). Last time value of sales was at this level was in June 2010 and volume – in November.
And take a look at the detailed sub-categories of sales:

• Motor trades - -4.2% in value and -3.5% in volume, so either we are buying cheaper and cheaper cars (in fewer numbers) or prices are falling faster than sales;
• Department stores down 12% in volume (mom) and 12.3% in value - symmetric drop-off as sales prices continued through the month;
• Fuel - volume of sales is up 0.9% mom (down 1.4% yoy), but value of sales is up 2.8% mom and 10.4% yoy - as mentioned above - inflation, folks is biting;
• Non-food business excluding motors, fuel and bars - now, here's the real retail sector story: -0.6% mom and -4.0% yoy in value of sales, and -0.9% mom and -1.5% yoy in volume - deflation and shrinking sales means recession continues.
• Of course, our massive newsflow has boosted Books, Newspapers and Stationery category - +4.9% mom in January in value and +2.7% mom in volume;
• Lastly, in tune with the nation watching Vincent Brown and other current affairs programmes, we've invested heavily in furniture and lightning - up 9.5% mom in value and 9.3% in volume
  

28/02/2011: Ireland v Iceland: Economy, part 2

In the previous post I covered some of the macroeconomic differences between Ireland and Iceland. One core conclusion that can be drawn from the previous post is that while Ireland retains stronger longer-term economic foundations based on historical performance, these foundations are not sufficient for us to achieve better performance than Iceland in the current crisis.

One might wonder what is the reason for this. Let’s recap how both countries have arrived into the current situation.

Both Ireland and Iceland have experienced rapid collapse of their asset markets (in both, there was a property bubble and a general financial services bubble, albeit Iceland had much smaller property sector than Ireland and in another crucial difference, Iceland had IFS bubble, while Ireland experienced a domestic financial services implosion). Hence, both economies started from roughly speaking similar conditions.

The crucial difference between the two can be found in the responses to the crisis. Iceland defaulted on its banks liabilities, writing them off the country economy’s balancesheet. Ireland took the entire banking sector liabilities and loaded it onto the shoulders of its economy.

This story can be traced through the fiscal positions comparatives.
Chart above shows that the two countries have run significantly different fiscal policies through the crisis, with Government revenues deteriorating much more sharply during the early stages of the crisis in Iceland than in Ireland. From the peak of 47.671% in 2007, Iceland’s government revenues fell to 39.447% of GDP in 2010 and are expected to reach the lowest point of 38.464% of GDP in 2011. In the mean time, Ireland’s government revenue fell from 35.83% of GDP in 2007 to 34.423% in 2009 and then rose to 35.362% in 2010. Ex-ante, this suggests that Irish Government balance should be more benign than that of Iceland.

The above conclusion is supported by the data on Government expenditure above. Both countries peaked in terms of their Government spending in 2009 (Iceland at 52.09% of GDP) and 2010 (Ireland at 53.03% of GDP). But in terms of starting points, Iceland was in a much worse shape than Ireland with total expenditure in 2007 at 42.27% of GDP as opposed to Ireland with 35.78%.

However, the ex-ante expected deeper deterioration in fiscal positions for Iceland turns out to be incorrect.

As the chart above clearly shows, Iceland’s public net borrowing requirements were much more benign and are expected to be much shorter lived, than those of Ireland. In 2007 Ireland’s net lending stood at 0.051% of GDP, while Iceland posted a lending surplus of 5.402%. In 2009 Iceland hit the rock bottom in terms of its Government borrowings at 12.644% of GDP. But Ireland kept on going: from the net Government borrowing of 14.613% in 2009, we fell to 17.667% in 2010. By 2015 Iceland is expected to enjoy three years of surplus and its forecast government net lending in 2015 is set at 2.757%. Over the same time, Ireland will remain firmly in net borrower hole, with 2015 net government borrowing expected at 5.153% of GDP.

Much of this gap between Ireland and Iceland is accounted for by the liabilities assumed by the Irish state from its banking sector. Stripping out Government interest bill – again massively overextended by the banking sector rescue funding, primary net lending/deficits of the two governments are shown in the chart below.


Now, let’s take a look at the overall public debt levels. First the IMF data
It does appear that Irish Exchequer, despite having run smaller surpluses in 2004-2007 and despite having suffered much deeper crisis in the banking and own balancesheets is going to end up holding less debt than Iceland. This, however, does not reflect the quasi-Governmental debt, which relates to banks rescue packages and which in Ireland adds to at least 25% of GDP ion today’s terms while in Iceland the same debt adds up to nothing courtesy of their decision to default on banks liabilities.

The chart below corrects for this omission.
In fact in its recent assessment of the Irish economy prospects for recovery, the IMF stated that they expect Irish Government debt to GDP ratio peaking at over 120% and in the case of an adverse economic growth scenario – reaching possibly 150% of GDP.

Finally, here are the summaries of data from the IMF comparing two economies performance.

First - period averages:
And finally - starting year spot values: