Daily Economics 20/04/09 - US debt problem

For those impatient - there is an estimate of Ireland Inc debt at the bottom... that can be compared with the US debt...

What is going on with the US economy? I expected the figures coming out on economic front (and earnings front outside the Federally financed banks) to be bad, but today's numbers are poor by all measures. According to the Fed's Conference Board, the index of leading economic indicators fell 0.3% in March, after a dip of 0.2% in February (revised up). But decomposition is telling:

• Building permits were the largest negative contributor in March, as builder have finally started to cut production in honest - much of this backed by the decreases in new starts, as finance committed to projects in 2008, signed for in 2007, has dried up. This is a welcome sign, as outstanding stock of unsold houses has to be pared back before any real recovery (as opposed to cliff-and-bottom bouncing) takes place.
• Stock prices, and the index of supplier deliveries also registered large negative contributions to the index in March, showing that real activity is continuing to deteriorate at, seasonally significantly faster rate. There is no spring bounce for now, and these are leading indicators, suggesting that any recovery upwards will require some new alchemy from the White House and the Fed.
  
• The real money supply was the largest positive contributor as the Feds printing presses were working overnight amidst deflation. And another sizeable positive push came from the yield spread - a sign that some of the future support might be waning - yield spreads narrowing is underpinned by lower Fed rates (not by healthier financial system, for banks are continuing to drop dead at an accelerating rate - 25 as of today in 2009 alone, and counting). So as the Fed has run out of options (short of setting negative nominal rates - e.g issuing loans with a principal repayment at a discount to the face value of the issued loan) and spreads are likely to start widening into the future as: (a) Uncle Sam's borrowing will remain buyoant, (b) debt refinancing will run rampant, and (c) Fed's helicopter drops of money thin out.
  

"There have been some intermittent signs of improvement in the economy in April," per Ken Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board. Overall, six of the 10 indicators were negative contributors, three were positive, and one was steady. Say what, Ken? Picture below is a telling one:
What Ken-omist from the Fed is referring to is the renewed momentum in the deterioration of the Leading Econ Indicators index that started in December (after a short 1-month flat) and has been going steady through March. The index has failed to bounce up in consecutive 9 months. Current Economic Conditions index is now converging downward to LEI, suggesting that unless things improve significantly in the next couple of months, simple psychology of the markets will lead to a renewed push down on LEI (the vicious cycle of self-fulfilling prophecies might commence).

Overall, in the six months to April 1, the index fell 2.5%, it declined 1.4% in the previous six months before that.

So about the only thing positive I can report has nothing to do with the Fed's own indicators, but with the decline in the new unemployment claims reported last week. If the decline persists for the next 6 weeks or so, then using comparisons with the last 6 recessions, we are at the point of inflection in economic recovery sometime now. But it is a big if, since the series can be reasonably volatile and their deviations from the monthly moving average can be significant (see here).

And here is a good chart on inflation expectations for the US (from the Fed: here) - care to argue this? or shall we start taking pressure on commodities-linked stuff in preparation for the new 2% inflation bout?


Paul Krugman on Ireland today: a good one from Krugman here. But an even better one from a comment to his article by PMD: "...Krugman and most of our own home-grown economists appear to regard cuts in public spending as being the same as tax increases. They have a model in their head with credit and debit on two sides and they are studiously agnostic about how the government should go about balancing the books. Those of us who work in the real economy know that increasing taxes on the productive part the economy - and that's 'productive' as in 'productivity' as in the only way to generate real wealth as in the only way to escape recession / depression - will dampen its productivity and, therefore, harm its capacity to generate wealth in the future - i.e. escape recession. All this 'sharing the pain' talk is just code for: we'll confiscate private sector wealth in order to avoid reform in the public sector. You can imagine a rich Titanic passenger on a half empty lifeboat blowing his nail and calling out to a dying pleb in the sea 'Chilly for this time of year. Isn't it?' I profoundly disagree with the reversion to the cargo cult school of economic management: let rich foreigners turn up and employ us. What on earth do we pay these mandarins for if the best they can come up with is 'something will turn up'? There are core domestic issues of productivity that are not being addressed." I couldn't have put it any better than this myself!

Lorenzo 'the Not-so-Magnificent' Smaghi... (or should it be Maghi?) is ECB's latest loose cannon... In an interview with FT Deutschland, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi of the ECB predicted that the Euro-zone recovery will follow the mirror image of a J-curve – a shallow recovery after the fall. Ok, I agree with this. In fact, I have warned for some months now that any recovery in the Euro-zone and Ireland in particular will be shallow and slow and will leave the continent at the trend growth rate of below 0.75% GDP, with Ireland at below 1% GDP pa. ECB's latest would-be-forecaster also 'predicted' a persistent and significant fall in potential growth rates going forward. Another thing Smaghi went into is inflation expectations: "'Inflation expectations are moving upwards (in euro area, U.S. and U.K.); no expectations of deflation," said the text of his presentation. Again, another theme I've been hammering about for some time now.

But... (S)maghi appeared to suggest that non-conventional monetary policy action would be likely soon, without giving any details. What this might be? Negative nominal interest rates? Unlikely. A policy of accepting all and any bonds issued by the member states? Brian Lenihan can wish... It is all but inevitable that the ECB will have to rescue Ireland and some of the other APIIGS. Such a rescue will have to be unconventional and not only because there is no existent convention within the Euro framework for doing so, but because as Smaghi stated in his presentation, households across Europe have lost faith in sustainability of public finances and have started to hoard cash. Nowhere more apparent than in Ireland. After surviving through a decade of anaemic (embarrassingly low, by some standards) economic growth, this is the second greatest threat point for the Euro.

A pat on the back: A stoodgy, but occasionally interesting quasi-official Euro economics website/blog: EuroIntelligence.com has the following 'news' item today. A long recession, a shallow recovery: The IMF has prereleased chapters 3 and 4 of its WEO. This is from the introduction of chapter 3 “…recessions associated with financial crises tend to be unusually severe and their recoveries typically slow. Similarly, globally synchronized recessions are often long and deep, and recoveries from these recessions are generally weak. Countercyclical monetary policy can help shorten recessions, but its effectiveness is limited in financial crises. By contrast, expansionary fiscal policy seems particularly effective in shortening recessions associated with financial crises and boosting recoveries. However, its effectiveness is a decreasing function of the level of public debt. These findings suggest the current recession is likely to be unusually long and severe and the recovery sluggish.”

Imagine this! See here for March 3 post that uses the exact precursor to Chapter 3 release... Oh dear, sometimes it is worth checking if a 'new' release is actually 'news'...

ESB's disgraceful entry into 'stimulus' economics has moved on to the next stage. As I noted in two earlier notes, the ESB plan for 'jobs creation' is an affront to the idea of competition and consumer interests (here), as well as an insensitive move at the time of economic hardship for many (here). Now, as today's IT reports (here) we are also looking at more Georgian Dublin demolitions... Is this predatory and arrogant monopoly ever going to brought under normal market controls? And is Irish Times ever going to become a paper where journalism stops being platitudinous to state monopolies and all-and-any 'Green' / 'sustainable' labels and starts seeing the likes of ESB for what they really are? And per wages and earnings in ESB... well, indeed in the entire public sector, see this excellent blog post from Ronan Lyons here. A must read.


A late Sunday thought - with Obamamama economics, how much debt is the US economy carrying?

Well, there are many sources of debt:

• National debt = currently at $11.2 trillion (per US National Debt Clock calculator here);
• Federal bailout commitments = so far set at $12.8 trillion (up from $4 trillion left by the previous Administration, per March 30 report by Bloomberg here);
• Federal entitlements commitments under Medicare and Social Security obligations = $52 trillion in current debt from the Federal Government to the system or $117 trillion in the present value of unfunded obligations (per National Center for Policy Analysis, as of December 2009, here);
• Private sector corporate and financial liabilities = $17 trillion (per US Federal Reserve numbers of December 2008, here)
• Private households liabilities $13.8 trillion (ditto), mortgages $10.5 trillion (here and a breakdown here) = $24.8 trillion.
  

Total = $117.8 - 172.8 trillion or 829.6-1,217% of 2008 GDP!
Financed at the current 30-year US Treasury rate of 3.79%, the interest payment on this debt alone will be $4,465-6,549 bln per annum - up to 46.1% of the country annual GDP.

We are not considering the pesky issue of the derivative instruments issued within the US system. These are notional debts, but they can come back and bite you as well. Per the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (here), as of the end of Q4 2008 US held:

• interest rate derivatives to the tune of $164 trillion;
• CDS at $15.9 trillion,
• other stuff: FX, equities, commodities -based derivatives, to the total of $20.5 trillion

So Derivatives grand total of $200.4 trillion.

Which brings US total debt obligations to $318.2-373.2 trillion = upwards of 2,628% of US GDP!

Considering that the US current population is 306,251,267, the total US debt per capita is between $1.31mln and $1.22mln, with a servicing cost of up to $46,185 per annum per person!

And amidst this, Obama is talking traditional Democratic drivel of 'spending the economy out of a recession'? While Paul Krugman is wailing that not enough is being spent?

Can anyone really doubt that inflation is around the corner? If so, consider the above figures and do tell me how can the US get out of this corner without a massive debt write-off via inflation and sustained devaluation? Dollar at 1.75 to the Euro in two years time and interest rates in double digits?

Now on to Ireland Inc's debt:

• National debt = currently at €54.245bn (per NTMA here);
• Government bailout commitments = so far set at €400bn (here) under Banks Guarantee Scheme, €70bn (my estimate in the forthcoming B&F article) under NAMA, €87bn (here); Sub-total = €557bn;
  
• Public entitlements commitments under Pensions, Social Welfare and Health obligations = €75bn (Pensions: here), €66.3bn (€38bn per annum spending on health, wages & social welfare taken over 30 years horizon with deficit of 10% per annum over term) in the present value of unfunded obligations; Sub-total = €141.6bn;
  
• Private sector corporate and financial liabilities = Monetary Financial Institutions: €810bn, inc of IFSC, corporate sectors: €551bn; Direct Investment: €183.6bn (here); Sub-total = €1,544.6bn
  
• Private households liabilities (per my earlier estimates here) = €150bn.
  

Total = €2.45 trillion or 1,440% of 2009 GDP!
Financed at the current 5-year rate over 30 year horizon (roll-over) of 4.5%, the interest payment on this debt alone will be €110.25bn per annum - up to 64.9% of the country annual GDP. Put differently - the debt/liabilities of this economy are currently amounting to ca €555,048 per every person living in Ireland...

Daily Economics 18/04/09: Nationwide fall(bail)out

Nationwide - systemic importance?
In today's Irish Times (here), Mr Cowen makes a ludicrous assertion that Irish Nationwide - or as we can call it - Irish Nationvile. How, Mr Cowen? Care to explain?

Irish Nationvile is not a systemically important organization. It is a mutually-owned closed shop (officially) or Fingleton's fiefdom (unofficially) that has done much good to this economy in the past as a safe-house for dodgy directors loans from the Anglo, a default bank for the most speculative developers, and an exemplary case study for corporate mis-governance. By its size, it is roughly equivalent to 10% of the property loans held by the two laregst banks, or just 6.4% of the property-related loans of our 6-banks system. It has virtually no productive net assets outside property sector so should the society go under, the economy of Ireland will hardly notice if, say, €8-10bn in performing loans were to be bought at a discount by the likes of HSBC or Barclays or Ulster Bank or NIB or whoever steps to the plate. Even BofI and AIB might want to step in and pick up depositors and good lending assets from the ruin.

But letting Nationvile sink - publicly and swiftly - will send two important signals to the international markets and to domestic voters. The first one will be to tell the world that Irish Exchequer is starting to manage its downside risk - throwing Nationwide out of the umbrella of state bailouts will make the case for judging Irish Government banks policies as being informed by economic efficiency rationale, not political expediency that Mr Cowen is so skilled in. The second one will be to tell the voters that there is at least some bound to the recklessness with which the Government is willing to use taxpayers hard earned cash to help its own cronies.

So, in my view, let it sink. Now!


ESB - another systemically important waster?
The Royal Bank of Scotland is toning down its flash headquarters to bring the building down to the early realities of the crisis. Many banks and large companies (including some Irish) are turning away from the posh offices they were planning to move to, but not ESB. The state monopoly that has milked its customers for years (and still does) with the second highest cost of electricity in Europe is planning to 'renovate' its (admittedly ugly) headquarters in Dublin as a package of 'stimulus' economics. To create jobs, so to speak. This amazing fact did not trace across Irish official media (Irish Times and RTE) reporting on the arrogant, in-your-face monopoly's last week's announcement.

Daily Economics 17/04/09: GGP & A dead cat bounce?

An open letter in Irish Times: here
Some of you have questioned my logic (sanity) in calling for nationalization of Irish banks. Here is a simple reason that does not involve economic theory. After the mini-Budget, it became all too apparent that Mr Lenihan and his boss are hell-bent on doing two things:

1. destroying the private economy in this country, and
2. using - without any restraint - our (public) money to prop up their power base (public sector unions, developers and banks).

I have less of a problem with the last two targets - at the very least, they are not subtracting from the real economic activity as our public sector unions do. But, following Ronald Regan's dictum (hat tip to M.E.S), if we have to give them public money, we must take the deeds.

My son, and your children - including those yet to be conceived or adopted, you, me, all of us working in the private sector are going to pay for NAMA. Inevitably! But I would like to get at least an IOU in return. Why? I do not trust this Government (and the opposition) to actually repay me my cash. If NAMA is a success, I would like my tax money back with interest, not for it to stash returns on my cash into another piggy-bank fund for public sector pensions and payoffs. If it is a failure, I would like to own the remaining pieces, not let it rest with Brian Cowen and Brian Lenihan who will be able to liquidate these NAMA assets to, you've guessed it, payoff their public sector cronies.

I would also like the shareholders and bondholders in banks to take a hit - over the years they placidly supported the disastrous decisions being made by their banks boards. Now, if my cash were to be used to undo their reckless complacency, they should be taken out altogether (in the case of shareholders) and be forced to pay up to the recapitalization and clean up levels (in the case of bondholders). The latter can be squeezed via a special one-off bond tax or via a direct cut in their coupon payments.

The only way to achieve this return of money to that taxpayers is via a voucher-style disbursal of the banks assets to the households. And this requires first a nationalization. Done...


GGP - the end of a lengthy saga and the start of a new chapter in defaults
At least one of the followers to this blog will know that back in the summer 2008 I wrote a quick note on GGP, valuing the fund at the time to be worth 'asymptotically zero' on the back of a belief that (a) its debt levels and maturity structure were beyond any repair, (b) its most recent $14bn acquisition, financed exclusively by the debt, was an act of suicide, (c) its management team did not know what they were doing over the last three years of operations, and (d) that the commercial real estate troubles cycle was not over, and that it will indeed come back full circle.

Apart from finally seeing the straw giant of REITs collapse under its own weight, today's bankruptcy filing by GGP tells me that the (d) part is now in full swing. This is timely as it is likely this time around to coincide with the peaking of the Alt-A mortgages refinancing, which, in my view, will drive US housing markets deeper into trouble. The question is what will Obama administration do about the new wave of households defaults, especially since this wave is not about sub-prime lending, but about ordinary American families taking a hit.

What is even more worrisome from my point of view is that the new wave of housing/ commercial property collapse will inevitably stress financials. This is tricky for a fragile economy hanging to the ledge created by the recent 6-weeks rally.

Just imagine for a second what dumping of some 158 GGP-owned shopping malls across the US might do to commercial property values there at the time when the market for commercial transactions is virtually non-existent. An idea that Simon Property Group - the largest US REIT still standing - will pick up some of GGPs properties is hardly a point worth considering. Simon is not exactly in a rude health itself and its tenants are suffering. With 158 new properties being in fire sale under Chapter 11 filing and another 42 GGP-owned properties waiting to be sold off as well, what can happen to retail malls yields other than a steep fall off? Prices will follow.


US Consumer Sentiment improved from 57.3 in March to 61.9 - a level that is still below the Consumer Sentiment reading of 70.3 recorded prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Alkl of the improvement was pretty much already priced into market valuations. The index of consumer expectations rose from 53.5 in march to 58.9 in April perfectly in line with the current sentiment reading.

So good news then? Not really. Look at the sentiment underlying fundamentals:

• Unemployment: in March, Michigan again scored the highest jobless rate of 12.6% and the state is dependent on consumer-driven activity (autos). Next came Oregon, 12.1%; South Carolina, 11.4%; California, 11.2% (all-time record for the state); North Carolina, 10.8% (another all-time record for the state); Rhode Island, 10.5%; Nevada, 10.4%; and Indiana, 10.0%. All of these states are either manufacturing centres or sources of soft business investment products (e.g software) - in other words, many of the states are the leading indicators of an upturn. Nine other states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment at or above 9.0%. So unemployment is not the cause of a bounce in consumer confidence;
• Equity markets: sustained bear rally is now settling into a gently declining trend, but in general, there have been some gains here. So stock market is one of the potential causes for a bounce in consumer sentiment, but it is a shaky ground for a sustained hope for consumer confidence pick up;
• Housing markets: some stabilization here over time, until yesterday's disastrous figures on new construction. It looks like the builders in the US have finally figured out (with a 12mo plus delay) that they have too much stuff on their hands already. SO housing markets are hardly a sustainable underpinning for consumer confidence;
• Personal income: personal after-tax income is falling and will continue to do so. We know that Federal taxes are rising only at the upper margin, so it is local taxes (and in particular local property taxes) and state taxes that are driving declines in personal disposable income. Either way, this is not a support base for confidence;
• Inflation: or rather deflation - with still positive near-zero interest rates, the US is far from gaining new borrowing cycle momentum, so while deflation is a net positive for consumers, positive interest rates are net negative - these cancel each other and we have no gain on support for confidence boost here.

What this really says is that fundamentally, the current bounce in Consumer Confidence is not justifiable - i.e it is a dead cat bounce. This is why the markets reaction has been relatively mild to now. QED...

Time to dump some bad risk? and ESB's rip-off 'investments'

EXCLUSIVE: Is it time to let Nationwide sink?
Here is an opportunity to show the financial world that we are serious about cleaning up the mess. It is also a good opportunity to show the world that we understand, as a country, that finance is about controlling the downside as much as exploiting the upside - in other words, that risky trades must be closed off. Nationwide is one of the riskiest plays in town - so the Government should let the stronger ones - including international banks - bid for the pieces. In other words, the Government should not mix Nationwide in with the systemic banks for nationalization or future re-capitalisations, or indeed NAMA cover.

Here are tomorrow's results from the Nationwide:

1. Loss after tax €243mln on a loan impairment charge of €464m (2007 pre-tax profit of €309mln), Operating profits €260mln
2. Total Capital at 10.2%, Core Tier 1 at 7.2% (not spectacular, but on par with other Irish banks - hardly impressive for internationals)
3. Total assets at €14.43bn - down 10% (unrealistic assessment, given equity and property markets conditions and shut down of land markets - details below)
4. Loan Book at €10.474bn - down 15% (so lending stalled, the patient is dead)
5. Customer accounts €6.785bn, so accounts cover 65% of loans - up from 59% cover in 2007 (but at what cost did Nationwide achieve this gain in cover?)
6. Cost-income ratio at 17% - the lowest among Irish financial institutions (i.e they have no soft-savings left to achieve as a cushion against future losses)
7. Liquid assets stand at €3.26bn - liquidity ratio of 24% - again, good luck to them if they think they can actually sell the stuff they hold against the loans...
8. Society reserves are at €1.2bn

"The Society did a very detailed examination of the loan book with the result that the sum allocated for provisions was a very robust figure of €464m for the year under review in line with market expectations... The Society’s loan book decreased in 2008 to €10,474m from €12,332 at the end of 2007. €1,339 of the reduction was attributable to the decline in the value of sterling; the balance was a reduction in capital balances. The commercial loan book now stands at €8,183m with the residential book at €2,291ml. As a result the total assets of the Society were reduced from €16,099m in 2007 to €14,429m in 2008."

So the impairment charge is of 3.22% of the total asset base and 4.43% of the property book. This is laughable. Also, Nationwide claims that as a part of its strategy it was actively reducing its exposure to commercial loans. But this active reduction took out at most only €331mln (16,099-14,429-1,339) in real assets, or ca 4%. This is in the time when property values fell over 20% and equity values are down more than 80%?

"Because of the reserves built up over the years from cumulative profits the Society was able to absorb the impairment provision. The Society still has total reserves of €1.2 Billion to absorb further impairment charges should they arise."

Well, now, suppose real impairment rises to 15% of the property-related loan book on commercial and 5% on residential. You have a need for €1.34bn in cash right there but you have only €1.2bn... and that is in the form of Tier 1 capital...

So are Nationwide's numbers (especially in the area of impairment) a case of exemplary management? Or of reckless 'ostrich' syndrome? You decide, but it does look to me like something is amiss. Here's what.

In 2008, Nationwide repaid some €750mln plus £500mln in debt securities, and in December 2008 it raised £325mln in new term notes maturing September 2010 (note the date?). But the beast still has €2.23bn in debt maturing in 2009 alone and "the Society plans to finance [this] through reduction of its loan book, the securitization of loans as well as the issue of new loans."

Yes, you did hear this right - securitization of loans (presumably Irish buy-to-let properties in the UK and Irish developers toxic waste in Ireland have strong market with ready buyers?). Of course they have no such hope, so in reality the Society is most likely looking for refinancing.

And here comes the confession: "the ability of the Society to raise wholesale funding on a continuing basis depends on the Government Guarantee. The Government intends in line with its previous indication to put a State guarantee in place for the future issuance of debt securities with a maturity of up to five years... The society's ability to remain a going concern and achieve its Business Plan is dependant on the continuation of Government support. As a systematically important institution Irish Nationwide was included in the guarantee Scheme. The Irish Government is committed to ensuring the continued viability and stability of systemically important credit institutions."

So here is Nationwide's survival strategy in a nutshell: "Give us more tax money! Now!"

In the end, Nationvile has €2.23bn of debt maturing this year alone and needs the extension of the Government guarantee to keep itself going. It also has an acute case of denial when it comes to potential losses it faces on its asset base and its loans, so it will need even more tax money to survive. This looks like they've gone to the markets to raise refinancing, but the markets laughed at them, they've gone to the auditors for a life-line on their NAV and they got that extension, so now its up to rich Uncle Taxpayer to rescue a systemically important private estate. Hmmm...


ESB's 'stimulus'
For shortage of time - more analysis of this is to follow, but in the nutshell, ESB announced new plans to 'create' 3,700 jobs through 2013... The Government & Opposition have welcomed the move that will see a notorious state monopoly

• using consumers' and businesses' cash (remember - it cannot pass cost reductions to its clients because it's out of town subsidiary - CER - doesn't let it)
  
• hire more grossly overpaid (remember, ESB runs a unionized closed shop with highest salaries in the entire public sector and work pracices that allow its employees draw full pay even when are asigned for years to plants producing absolutely nothing)
• to expand its dominance in the market that is so starved of competition, that much of our economy's competitiveness loss can be attributed to the ESB's existence.
  

This is a farce that passes in this country for industrial, fiscal and economic policies. Instead of breaking up a noxious monopoly, the state will allow ESB to piggy-bank the revenue it gains from ripping off its customers into 'developing new infrastructure such as smart metering and a system to allow for the recharging of electric cars'.

You might also notice that the two investment objectives are a red herring. Smart metering is already widely available and does not require any 'infrastructure' - you can install smart meter at your own home. Electric cars are about as widely spread in Ireland (or indeed anywhere else in the world) as dinosaurs. By 2013, this is unlikely to change.

Lastly, the Government has been calling for increasing ESB's and other state monopolies contributions to the Exchequer to compensate for some of the revenue losses incurred in this crisis. Now, the same Government is welcoming ESB chipping into this contribution. Who will make for the shortfall? Well, the same people who will be paying for those 3,700 new jobs to be 'created' by the ESB - you, me and the rest of taxpayers. ESB claims it can raise funding for the investment in private markets. Maybe so, but it can't raise funding for interest charges on the loans and it can't raise funding for paying lavish salaries to its new employees. At over €80,000 per average ESB job, this 'green investment' will cost the consumers some €300mln per annum in wage costs alone. Now that's what I call 'smart' metering.

WSJ today (here) has an excellent parallel story to the ESB circus.

Hush-Hush & Sweep it under the Rug: EU's latest 'transparency' move

Last week EUObserver reported an interesting story (here) about the EU Commission efforts to keep transparency at bay.

Per EUObserver report: "New rules on public access to EU documents have prompted one of the European Commission's key departments to circulate a memo warning officials to be careful about what they write in emails and advising them on how to narrowly interpret requests for information. The 15-page handbook was circulated in January to officials working in the commission directorate for trade, one of the EU's most important policy areas affecting millions of people both within and beyond the bloc.

"Each official must be aware that all his/her documents, including meeting reports and e-mails can potentially be disclosed. You should keep this in mind when writing such documents. This is particularly the case for meeting reports and emails with third parties (e.g. industry)," reads the memo.

It asks officials... to avoid making references to informal contacts, such as meals or drinks, with lobbyists. "Don't refer to the great lunch you have had with an industry representative privately or add a PS asking if he/she would like to meet for a drink." [Hold it, folks - wouldn't such a PS qualify as a solicitation of a payoff in the first place?] The document also tips off officials on how to narrow down the interpretation of a request for information. It points to a past example where a request referred to DG trade meetings with individual companies, meaning the department could avoid making public its contacts with business lobbyists."

Well, there is more the EUObserver report worth reading, but what is absolutely clear is that the EU Commission has absolutely no interest in following the spirit of the disclosure rules, preferring instead to bend the rule-book in order to conceal the extent, nature and effectiveness of lobbyists, as well as to cover up its own governance practices.

Of course, one solution to this problem is to make all information concerning EU public - including the so-called commercially-sensitive one. Taxpayers must be allowed to know who was bidding on which projects, how these bids were evaluated and judged and how the bidding companies spent their lobbying money. This will include a transparent and complete list of lobbying organizations, bureaucrats diaries and other information that can assist us, the taxpayers, in determining who dined with whom, when, why and at whose expense.

In fact, they should also be required to post the actual bills paid - in my humble opinion, if MEPs claim expenses on things like meals and entertainment, I would like to know how many lobsters were eaten in Brussels on the back of my taxes... wouldn't you?

And let's apply the same principles to our local politicians and officials...

A quintessence of Lenihan's economics

Hat tip to Linda - here is a descriptor of the logic of 'shared pain' policies that ask us all - ordinary me and you, a lavishly paid Secretary General of Department of Somethingness, a patrician head of some Quango in charge of Everythingness etc - to make sacrifices in the name of the country - to go that extra step beyond our already up-to-my-ears-in-work existence...

So what makes 100%? What does it mean to give MORE than 100%?
If: A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
is represented as:1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26.

Then:
H-A -R -D-W-O -R -K 8+1+18+4+23+15+18+11 = 98%
and
K -N -O -W-L -E-D-G-E 11+14+15+23+12+5+4+7+5 = 96%
and
A-T -T -I -T -U -D-E 1+20+20+9+20+21+4+5 = 100%

But
B -U -L -L -S -H-I -T 2+21+12+12+19+8+9+20 = 103%
and
A-S -S -K -I -S-S -I -N-G 1+19+19+11+9+19+19+9+14+7 = 118%

So, one can conclude with mathematical certainty, that
While Hard Work and Knowledge will get you close, and Attitude will get you there, its the Bullshit and Ass Kissing that will put you over the top - all the way to Brian Lenihan's national sacrifice economics...