Wednesday, July 31, 2019

31/7/19: Fed rate cut won't move the needle on 'Losing Globally' Trade Wars impacts

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Dear investors, welcome to the Trump Trade Wars, where 'winning bigly' is really about 'losing globally': As the chart...

31/7/19: Canary in the Treasuries mine

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Judging by U.S. Treasuries, things are getting pretty ugly in the economy: The gap between long-dated bond yields and short-dated pap...
Saturday, July 27, 2019

27/7/19: A Cautionary Tale of Irish-UK Trade Numbers

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Per recent discussion on Twitter, I decided to post some summary stats on changes in Irish total trade with the UK in recent years. Here...
Friday, July 26, 2019

26/7/19: Stop Equating Low Unemployment Rate to High Employment Rate

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There is always a lot of excitement around the unemployment stats these days. Why, with near-historical lows, and the talk about 'full...
Tuesday, July 23, 2019

22/7/19: What Import Price Indices Do Not Say About Trump's Trade War

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A few days ago, I saw on Twitter some economics commentators, not quite analysts, presenting the following 'evidence' that Trump t...
Sunday, July 21, 2019

21/7/19: The Budgets of Wars: An Updated Study of U.S. Military Stocks Performance

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A new and much-improved version of our paper "The Budgets of Wars: Analysis of the U.S. Defense Stocks in the Post-Cold War Era"...
Thursday, July 18, 2019

17/9/19: Flight from Fundamentals is Flight from Quality: Corporate Risk

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Great chart via @jessefelder highlighting the extent to which the bond markets are getting seriously divorced from the normal 'fundame...
Tuesday, July 16, 2019

16/7/19: Corporate Yields are Heading South in the Euro Land

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Some of the euro area's junk-rated corporate debt is now trading at negative yields, and over 15% of near-junk debt is also charging t...

16/7/19: Monetary Policy Paradigm: To Cut or To Cut, and Not to Not Cut

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QE is back... almost. After a decade plus of failing to deliver on its core objectives, and having primed the massive bubble in risky as...
Saturday, July 13, 2019

13/7/19: A New Era of Entrepreneurship? Not in Data so Far...

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We are living in the Great New Era of Entrepreneurship that started in 2013 ( according to someone at Forbes ) and the academia is pumping...

13/7/19: Mapping the declines in jobs creation

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Increasing market power concentration, falling entrepreneurship, rising concentration amongst the start ups, unicorns and billions in inve...

13/7/19: BRICS and G7

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As a side note: the BRICS now have a bigger share of the world economy than the Euro area and the U.S. combined: In 2019, BRICS combin...