Sunday, June 30, 2019

29/6/19: Why Moody’s is wrong to keep Cyprus on junk status

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Euromoney on Cypriot economy: "Why Moody’s is wrong to keep Cyprus on junk status"  https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1g125jl1w...
Monday, June 24, 2019

24/6/19: Markets Expect the Next QE Soon...

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Adding to the previous post on the negative yielding debt, here is a recent post from @TracyAlloway showing Goldman Sachs' chart on im...

24/6/19: Negative Yielding Debt: Monetary Contagion Spreads

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Negative yielding Government debt (the case where investors pay  the sovereign lenders for the privilege of lending them funds) has hit al...
Friday, June 21, 2019

20/6/19: Say Goodbye to the Trump Bump in Corporate Investment

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Trump's investment boom... is vapour now. And that is despite the fact that tariffs on China, threats of tariffs against Mex...

20/6/19: The 'Mental' Bits of Economic Fundamentals

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My article on the statistical mishaps in the U.S. and Irish economic data for the Manning Financial:  https://cfc.ie/2019/06/11/economic-o...
Wednesday, June 19, 2019

19/6/19: In an Alternate Ireland, Captain Leary...

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Big congratulations to my friend and co-author (on economics and finance matters), Prof. Brian M. Lucey @brianmlucey on his debut in ficti...

18/6/19: In May, 12 month forward probability of a U.S. recession has jumped up

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The NY Fed estimated risk of recession (12 months forward) has hit another business cycle high of 29.62% for May 2020, up from 27.49% for ...

18/6/19: OECD-led Tax Reforms: A Prescription for a Less Competitive Economy

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I have just posted a draft of my paper on the OECD BEPS proposals from May-June 2019 here: Gurdgiev, Constantin, OECD-led Tax Reforms: A ...

18/6/19: Obama v Trump: Jobs Creation

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Who had the more impressive numbers in terms of jobs creation: President Obama or President Trump? This question is non-trivial. For a num...
Monday, June 17, 2019

17/6/19: Lose-Lose-and-Lose-Some-More Trade War: Trumpism in Action

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Recently, I have posted on the latest Fed research covering the impact of the President Trump's trade war with China, showing that the...
Friday, June 14, 2019

14/6/19: Rising Concentration Risk in S&P500 Earnings and Revenues

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S&P 500 companies earnings and revenues are heading for another round of de-diversification (increasing concentration of earnings and ...

14/6/19: The Real U.S. Migration Crisis is Not at the Border, but at Home

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I recently wrote about the new data from the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol on crime amongst the illegal and legal immigrants in the U.S. ...