Thursday, January 17, 2019

17/1/19: Why limits to AI are VUCA-rich and human-centric

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Why ethics, and proper understanding of VUCA environments (environments characterized by volatility/risk, uncertainty, complexity and ambi...

17/1/19: Gonzo: Deplatforming the Mensheviks

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My contribution to Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert’s new documentary series ‘Gonzo’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyTWT7jpCyg starting at ...

17/1/19: 2019 Outlook

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My post on economic outlook for 2019 is now available from the Focus Economics : https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/constantin-gurdgiev-...

17/1/19: U.S. Imports Demand and Final Household Consumption

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A great post from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco blog ( https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/20...

17/1/19: Eurocoin December 2018 Reading Indicates a Structural Problem in the Euro Area Economy

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December 2018 reading for Eurocoin, a lead growth indicator for euro area posted a second consecutive monthly decline, falling from 0.47 i...
Saturday, January 12, 2019

12/1/19: Global Liquidity Conditions

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Things are getting ugly in the global liquidity environment. 1) The U.S. Treasuries demand from foreign buyers is drifting down - a tren...

11/1/19: Herding: the steady state of the uncertain markets

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Markets are herds. Care to believe in behavioral economics or not, safety is in liquidity and in benchmarking. Both mean that once large i...
Friday, January 11, 2019

11/1/19: A Behavioral Experiment: Irish License Plates and Household Demand for Cars

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While a relatively well known and understood fact in Ireland, this is an interesting snapshot of data for our students in Behavioral Finan...

11/1/19: Euromoney on U.S. and Global Credit Risk: 2018 in review

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My comment on key trends in the U.S. credit risk changes in 2018 and a glimpse into 2019 'crystal ball' for Euromoney  and ECR :  ...

11/1/19: Capital Gains Tax: Human Capital vs Other Forms of Capital

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This is exactly  the source of policy-induced wealth inequality in the modern advanced economies: the disparity between labor income tax a...

10/1/19: QE or QT? Look at the markets for signals

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With U.S. Fed entering the stage where the markets expectations for a pause in monetary tightening is running against the Fed statements o...
Wednesday, January 9, 2019

9/1/19: Student Debt Bubble Adjusted for Wages and Employment Costs Growth

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Student loans debt has been steadily rising in recent years, at rates far in excess of the rates of growth in overall credit to the U.S. h...