Friday, August 24, 2018

24/8/18: Moscow's Fiscal Resilience in the Headwinds

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Back in September 2017, Fitch (with Russia rating BBB-) estimated that the U.S. sanctions were costing Russia ‘one notch’ in terms of sove...

24/8/18: The Fed Bites the Bullet on Secular Stagnation

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And just like... Federal Reserve Chair confirms the Twin Secular Stagnation Hypotheses in one paragraph of his speech: Per Powell, &q...
Wednesday, August 22, 2018

22/8/18: Emerging Markets Risks and International Reserves

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Emerging markets are at the point of risk contagion these days, with a potential spillover into advanced economies. This brings us back to...
Saturday, August 18, 2018

18/8/18: Monopolization trends in Advanced Economies: my column for CFR

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My column for the Cayman Financial Review  on the topic of structural monopolization of the global economy and the declining competitivene...

18/8/18: Kiplinger quotes on equity markets

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Kiplinger quotes myself on Deutsche Bank, PG&E, and General Electric https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/T052-S001-10-rough...

18/08/18: Euromoney on Italian Banking Risks and Turkey Crisis

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Euromoney article on the latent Italian crisis, relative to the ongoing Turkish one:  https://www.euromoney.com/article/b19k3zjb7v811r/ita...
Thursday, August 9, 2018

9/8/18: BRIC PMIs trace Global economy's slowdown at the start of 3Q

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Recent PMIs for BRIC show a weaker start to 3Q 2018, in line with moderating growth outlook for the global economy: In summary, Compos...
Saturday, August 4, 2018

4/8/18: Collapsed Labor Share of Economy 1947-2016

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The frightening fate of the U.S. labor is best highlighted by the share of labor in economic output. Fred database only provides the data ...
Thursday, August 2, 2018

2/8/18: M&A Activity: More Concentration Risk Signals

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In recent media analysis of the markets, less attention that the rise in shares buybacks has been given to the M&A markets. And there ...

2/8/18: Shares Buybacks: the Evil Symptoms of an Ever More Evil Disease

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Yesterday, I have posted a quite unusual (for my normal arguments) defense of the shares buybacks. Normally, as the readers of this blog k...
Wednesday, August 1, 2018

1/8/18: Household Debt and the Cycle

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So far, lack of huge uplift in household debt in the U.S. has been one positive in the current business cycle. Until, that is, one looks a...

1/8/18: Dynamic patterns in BTCUSD pricing: is there a new down cycle afoot?

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Bitcoin Cycles Analysis in one chart: As the above suggests, BTCUSD dynamics are signalling continued structural pressures on Bitcoin...