Showing posts with label uncertainty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label uncertainty. Show all posts
Thursday, September 17, 2020

17/9/20: Exploding errors: COVID19 and VUCA world of economic growth forecasts

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  Just as I covered the latest changes in Eurozone growth indicators ( https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/17920-eurocoin-leading-gro...
Saturday, July 25, 2020

25/7/20: Markets and COVID19: Unwinding Restrictions

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My column for Manning Financial on the direction of the markets in the period of COVID19 restrictions unwinding:  https://cfc.ie/2020/07/...
Friday, July 24, 2020

23/7/20: Globalization and Populism: A Recent Study

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I recently came across a fascinating paper by Dani Rodrik, an economist always worth reading. The paper, titled " Why Does Globalizat...
Thursday, April 30, 2020

30/4/20: No, Healthcare Systems are Not Lean Startups, Mr. Musk

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A tweet from @elonmusk yesterday has prompted a brief response from myself: https://twitter.com/GTCost/status/1255681426445365248?s=20...
Friday, March 20, 2020

20/3/20: Euromoney on Risk Landscape Changes

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Euromoney on changing risk landscape for global sovereigns:  https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1ktp0wqc12jyb/ecr-risk-experts-contemplate...
Tuesday, January 21, 2020

21/1/20: Investor Fear and Uncertainty in Cryptocurrencies

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Our paper on behavioral biases in cryptocurrencies trading is now published by the Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance  volume ...
Tuesday, February 27, 2018

27/2/18: Volatility & Uncertainty are Back with a Bang

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My recent article on markets volatility for the Sunday Business Post   https://www.businesspost.ie/business/volatility-uncertainty-back-ba...
Saturday, November 18, 2017

18/11/17: North Korean Uncertainty and Market Impacts

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S&P new post about the risks poised by North Korea is a neat summary of key actions and players involved (see the full note: https://m...
Saturday, October 28, 2017

28/10/17: Income Inequality: Millennials vs Baby Boomers

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OECD's recent report, "Preventing Ageing Unequally", has a wealth of data and analysis relating to old-age poverty and demog...
Tuesday, October 3, 2017

3/10/17: Ambiguity Fun: Perceptions of Rationality?

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Here is a very insightful and worth studying set of plots showing the perceived range of probabilities under subjective measure scenar...
Saturday, July 29, 2017

28/7/17: Risk, Uncertainty and Markets

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I have warned about the asymmetric relationship between markets volatility and leverage inherent in lower volatility targeting strategies,...
Thursday, June 8, 2017

7/6/17: European Policy Uncertainty: Still Above Pre-Crisis Averages

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As noted in the previous post, covering the topic of continued mis-pricing by equity markets of policy uncertainties, much of the decli...
Wednesday, June 7, 2017

7/6/17: Equity Markets Continue to Mis-price Policy Risks

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There has been some moderation in the overall levels of Economic Policy Uncertainty, globally, over the course of May. The decline was pri...
Friday, April 28, 2017

28/4/17: The VUCA Markets

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My regular column with the Cayman Financial Review  covering the current development of the risk-uncertainty frameworks in the markets is ...
Tuesday, February 28, 2017

28/2/17: Sentix Euro Breakup Contagion Risk Index Explodes

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Sentix Euro Break-up Contagion Index - a market measure of the contagion risk from one or more countries leaving the euro area within the ...
Friday, February 24, 2017

23/2/17: Welcome to the VUCA World

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Much has been said recently about the collapse of ‘risk gauges’ in the financial markets, especially on foot of the historically low readi...
Tuesday, September 16, 2014

16/9/2014: Mapping Uncertainty Across Industries

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A very interesting post on HBR Blog ( http://blogs.hbr.org/2014/09/the-industries-plagued-by-the-most-uncertainty/ ) mapping technological...
Tuesday, September 11, 2012

11/9/2012: Inherent limit to artificial intelligence?

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In a rather common departure from economics (as defined by rational expectations subset of the discipline) on this blog - here's a fa...
Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Economics 16/10/2010: Organizational systems and uncertainty

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I came across this very interesting, and to me - far reaching - paper on the effects of organizational structures on the organization's ...