Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 8, 2021

8/6/21: U.S. Investor Confidence under Biden

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 My recent comment on the Biden Administration early successes for the Euromoney:  https://www.euromoneycountryrisk.com/article/b1rqlvl15wr2...

8/6/21: This Recession Is Different: Corporate Profits Boom

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  Corporate profits guidance is booming. Which, one might think, is a good signal of recovery. But the recession that passed (or still passi...
Sunday, September 27, 2020

26/9/20: America's Scariest Charts: Continued Unemployment Claims

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  Updating my charts for the continued unemployment claims: The latest data is covering the period through September 12, 2020. On a non-seas...
Monday, August 24, 2020

23/8/20: America's Scariest Charts: Continued Unemployment Claims

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  Having updated non-farm employment data ( https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/08/23820-americas-scariest-charts.html ), let's take...

23/8/20: America's Scariest Charts: Employment

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  Good news, folks, just in time for the Republican National Convention. The latest data, through July 2020, shows some recovery in non-farm...
Saturday, July 25, 2020

25/720: Updated: America's Scariest Charts: Unemployment Claims

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Updating my Scariest Charts for the latest data, through thee week of July 18, 2020: First, a summary table and chart for changes in the...
Thursday, July 16, 2020

16/720: Updated: America's Scariest Charts: Unemployment Claims

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New data for the week prior on continued and new unemployment claims continues to support a view of a relatively slow and slowing-down rec...
Friday, July 10, 2020

10/7/20: America's Scariest Charts Updated

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Updating my series of 'America's Scariest Charts' for the latest data releases this week. First: continued unemployment clai...
Saturday, July 4, 2020

3/7/20: Labor Market COVID19ed

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I have been running a regular update on my 'America's Scariest Charts' covering labor markets developments (see most recent on...
Thursday, July 2, 2020

2/7/20: America's Scariest Charts Updated

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Some updates from the US Labour Markets to our America's Scariest Charts series today. First, headline official Non-Farm Payrolls data f...
Wednesday, July 1, 2020

1/7/20: Manufacturing PMIs Q2 2020: BRIC

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BRIC economies reported their June manufacturing PMIs, so we can update Q2 2020 data. Here is the chart: Despite improving PMIs in al...
Monday, June 29, 2020

29/6/20: Eurocoin Growth Indicator June 2020

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Using the latest Eurocoin leading growth indicator for the Euro area, we can position the current COVID19 pandemic-related recession in hi...
Tuesday, May 5, 2020

5/5/20: A V-Shaped Recovery? Ireland post-Covid

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My article for The Currency  on the post-Covid19 recovery and labour markets lessons from the pst recessions:  https://www.thecurrency.new...
Monday, March 23, 2020

23/3/20: Private Consumption Gets the Virus. Heads to an ICU...

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Via @bkollmeyer, Deutsche Bank's Research chart on discretionary spending across the global economy: I have no access to the prim...
Wednesday, March 18, 2020

18/3/20: Yield Curve and Recessions

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Some things work even in pandemics:

18/3/20: Past Recessions and COVID19 Crisis

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As governments around the world are revising the expected duration of the extraordinary restrictive measures aimed at containing COVID19 p...
Wednesday, July 3, 2019

2/7/19: Inverted Yield Curve

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Inverting U.S. yield curve is one of the best early indicators of recessions. Or at least it used to be... before all the monetary policy ...
Wednesday, June 19, 2019

18/6/19: In May, 12 month forward probability of a U.S. recession has jumped up

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The NY Fed estimated risk of recession (12 months forward) has hit another business cycle high of 29.62% for May 2020, up from 27.49% for ...
Friday, June 17, 2016

17/6/16: Credit markets on the ropes?

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In their research note, titled aptly “Credit Metrics Bode 1ll”, Moody’s Analytics produced a rather strong warning to the corporate credit...
Friday, July 4, 2014

4/7/2014: Q1 2014: Domestic Demand dynamics

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In the previous posts I covered the revisions to our GDP and GNP  introduced by the CSO, top-level GDP and GNP growth dynamics , and secto...