Showing posts with label VUCA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label VUCA. Show all posts
Sunday, February 7, 2021

6/2/21: Longer Trends in Economic Uncertainty

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  Quite dramatic trends in terms of rising economic uncertainty over the last 21 years: And, not surprisingly, the rise of uncertainty in Eu...
Saturday, December 12, 2020

12/12/20: Hungary's risk improvement in peril

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 My comment for Euromoney on changes in sovereign risk profile for Hungary:  https://www.euromoneycountryrisk.com/article/b1pjjpq2xr2bfy/hun...
Saturday, October 3, 2020

3/10/20: Identity & Risk: Financial Services in a Time of Transformation & Uncertainty

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  Delighted to announce that I will bee keynoting October 22 conference Identity & Risk: Financial Services in  a Time of Transformation...
Thursday, September 17, 2020

17/9/20: Exploding errors: COVID19 and VUCA world of economic growth forecasts

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  Just as I covered the latest changes in Eurozone growth indicators ( https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/17920-eurocoin-leading-gro...
Wednesday, August 19, 2020

19/8/20: The VUCA World of World Trade

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  WTO projections for global merchandise trade by volume: Let's take a closer look. Optimistic scenario is for a 13% y/y drop in merchan...
Saturday, July 25, 2020

25/7/20: Markets and COVID19: Unwinding Restrictions

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My column for Manning Financial on the direction of the markets in the period of COVID19 restrictions unwinding:  https://cfc.ie/2020/07/...
Tuesday, May 5, 2020

5/5/20: A simple view of Globalization: some thoughts

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Globalization in  retreat chart via PIIE:  https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/pandemic-adds-momentum-deglobalizatio...
Sunday, May 3, 2020

3/5/20: Financial Strength Across Emerging Markets

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A somewhat simplified, but nonetheless telling heat map of financial strengths and vulnerabilities across emerging market/middle income ec...
Thursday, April 30, 2020

30/4/20: No, Healthcare Systems are Not Lean Startups, Mr. Musk

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A tweet from @elonmusk yesterday has prompted a brief response from myself: https://twitter.com/GTCost/status/1255681426445365248?s=20...
Friday, February 14, 2020

14/2/20: Pandemics, Panics and the Markets

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In my recent article for The Currency  I wrote about the expected market effects of the 2019-nCov coronavirus outbreak:  https://www.thecu...
Wednesday, January 15, 2020

15/1/20: What Trade Deal Phase 1/N Says About the Four Horsemen of Apocalypse

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Phase 1 of N of the "Greatest Trade Deal" that is "easiest to achieve' by the 'stablest Genius' is hitting the ...
Wednesday, October 16, 2019

16/10/19: Euromoney Risk Survey Q3 2019 Results

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Euromoney analysis of Q3 2019 results for country risk surveys and risk outlook forward, with lots of comments from myself and others:  ht...
Thursday, January 17, 2019

17/1/19: Why limits to AI are VUCA-rich and human-centric

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Why ethics, and proper understanding of VUCA environments (environments characterized by volatility/risk, uncertainty, complexity and ambi...
Wednesday, January 9, 2019

9/1/2019: Assets with Negative Returns: 1901-present [Updated]

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Updating the chart for major assets performance 1901-present, based on data from  http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2018/12/191218-assets-...
Friday, December 28, 2018

28/12/18: BTCD is neither a hedge nor a safe haven for stocks

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A quick - and dirty - run through the argument that Bitcoin serves as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks. This argument has been popular i...
Saturday, December 22, 2018

22/12/18: Millennials and Buffetts: It’s a VUCA Investment World

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My August 2018 Economic Outlook  for Manning Financial: What unites Warren Buffett, Apple and the financially distressed generation of t...
Wednesday, December 19, 2018

19/12/18: Assets with Negative Returns: 1901-present

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Highlighting the evidence presented in the earlier-linked article, here is the chart based on data from the Deutsche Bank Research team, s...
Thursday, December 6, 2018

6/12/18: Are Younger Americans More Comfortable With a Multipolar World?

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When it comes to challenging status quo heuristics, the younger generations usually pave the way. The same applies to the heuristics relat...

6/12/18: When it comes to geopolitical & socio-economic anxiety, Europe's problem is European

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Europe is a sitting duck for major geopolitical risk, but the U.S. is getting there too: And volatility surrounding the uncertainty ...
Saturday, November 24, 2018

24/11/18: Wisdom of Crowds, Meta-Knowledge and Behavioral Biases in Scalable Data

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Social networks: scale, biases and the notion of the 'wisdom of crowds'... Here are my lecture notes from the Behavioral Finance a...