Showing posts with label Secular stagnation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Secular stagnation. Show all posts
Saturday, April 17, 2021

17/4/21: Collapsing Labor Force Participation: A Secular Trend

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  For those of you following this blog this would be a familiar sight: I have been worrying about the underlying structure of the U.S. labor...
Friday, November 13, 2020

13/11/20: The economy has two chronic illnesses (and neither are Covid)

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My column for The Currency  this week covers two key long-term themes in the global economy that pre-date the pandemic and will remain in pl...
Tuesday, November 3, 2020

2/11/2020: Technological Deepening and De-globalization post-COVID

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Interesting insights from McKinsey on changes in technology adoption in response to COVID19 pandemic: In the ed, I marked two types of techn...
Monday, March 9, 2020

9/3/20: Beware the Endlessly Inflating Global Debt Bubble

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My latest article for Manning Financial on the global debt overload is available here:  https://issuu.com/publicationire/docs/mf_spring_20...
Wednesday, January 29, 2020

28/1/20: The Precariat of America's Workampers

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Precariat is defined as "a social class formed by people suffering from precarity, which is a condition of existence without predicta...
Tuesday, January 21, 2020

21/1/20: US Deficits, Growth and Money Markets Woes

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My article for The Currency  on the effects of the U.S. fiscal profligacy on global debt and money markets is out:  https://www.thecurrenc...
Friday, January 10, 2020

10/1/20: Eight centuries of global real interest rates

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There is a smashingly good paper out from the Bank of England, titled "Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘s...
Saturday, July 13, 2019

13/7/19: A New Era of Entrepreneurship? Not in Data so Far...

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We are living in the Great New Era of Entrepreneurship that started in 2013 ( according to someone at Forbes ) and the academia is pumping...
Wednesday, July 10, 2019

10/7/19: Financialising Stagnant Growth: From Japanified Economy to Christine Lagarde

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Monetary policy since the GFC of 2008 has been characterised by the near-zero (and even negative) policy rates, negative bank rates, negat...
Wednesday, June 12, 2019

12/6/19: Japanifying the World

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Heard on the sidelines of the QE: "Honey, we've Japanified the World..." Chart via Wells Fargo Research team.
Monday, May 27, 2019

27/5/19: Which part of the Federal spending poses a greater fiscal threat?

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An interesting chart via Cato on the number of Federal state aid programs in the U.S. The grand total of these programs in terms of ...
Saturday, April 6, 2019

6/4/19: Industrial Production and Global Trade are Tanking

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The great convergence of simultaneously declining global trade flows and industrial production: Via topdowncharts.com The trend is a...
Sunday, February 24, 2019

24/2/19: Buybacks vs Capex

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U.S. corporates spending or 'investing' over the last 10 years: CapEx ($6.4T), including often non-productive M&As Buyback...
Thursday, November 15, 2018

15/11/18: The 'New Normal' is a Road to another Tech Sector Bust

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The VC land of wonders and waste is awash with cash, thanks to a decade-long loose liquidity pumping across the markets by the Central Ban...
Friday, October 19, 2018

19/10/18: IMF's Woeful Record in Forecasting: Denying Secular Stagnation Hypothesis

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A recent MarketWatch post by Ashoka Mody, @AshokaMody, detailing the absurdities of the IMF growth forecasts is a great read (see  https:/...
Tuesday, September 11, 2018

11/9/18: Slow Recoveries & Unemployment Traps: Hysteresis and/or Secular Stagnation

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The twin secular stagnations hypothesis (TSSH, first postulated on this blog) that combines supply-side (technological cyclicality) and de...
Friday, August 24, 2018

24/8/18: The Fed Bites the Bullet on Secular Stagnation

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And just like... Federal Reserve Chair confirms the Twin Secular Stagnation Hypotheses in one paragraph of his speech: Per Powell, &q...
Saturday, August 18, 2018

18/8/18: Monopolization trends in Advanced Economies: my column for CFR

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My column for the Cayman Financial Review  on the topic of structural monopolization of the global economy and the declining competitivene...
Thursday, August 2, 2018

2/8/18: M&A Activity: More Concentration Risk Signals

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In recent media analysis of the markets, less attention that the rise in shares buybacks has been given to the M&A markets. And there ...

2/8/18: Shares Buybacks: the Evil Symptoms of an Ever More Evil Disease

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Yesterday, I have posted a quite unusual (for my normal arguments) defense of the shares buybacks. Normally, as the readers of this blog k...