Showing posts with label Interest rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Interest rates. Show all posts
Friday, January 10, 2020

10/1/20: Eight centuries of global real interest rates

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There is a smashingly good paper out from the Bank of England, titled "Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘s...
Tuesday, July 16, 2019

16/7/19: Monetary Policy Paradigm: To Cut or To Cut, and Not to Not Cut

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QE is back... almost. After a decade plus of failing to deliver on its core objectives, and having primed the massive bubble in risky as...
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

14/5/19: Monetary Policy at the edge of QE

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My new column for the Cayman Financial Review  on the current twists in global Monetary Policies is now available on line:  https://www.ca...
Sunday, July 15, 2018

14/7/18: Elephants. China Shop, Enters a Mouse: Global Debt Bubble

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Bank for International Settlements Annual Report for 2018 has a very interesting set of charts covering the growing global debt bubble, on...
Friday, February 24, 2017

24/2/17: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2017

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My article for Manning Financial  covering monetary policy outlook is out and can be viewed here:  https://issuu.com/publicationire/docs/m...
Thursday, January 12, 2017

12/1/17: NIRP: Central Banks Monetary Easing Fireworks

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Major central banks of the advanced economies have ended 2016 on another bang of fireworks of NIRP (Negative Interest Rates Policies). A...
Thursday, December 15, 2016

15/12/16: Long-Term Fed Path May Force ECB to Act

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My post-mortem analysis of the U.S. Fed's FOMC meeting and policy changes announcements for Sunday Business Post :  https://www.busine...
Monday, September 12, 2016

12/9/16: Fiscal Policy in the Age of Debt

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In recent years, there has been lots and lots of debates, discussions, arguments and research papers on the perennial topic of fiscal stim...
Saturday, June 11, 2016

11/6/16: 5,000 Years Record…

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A quick classic from the 11-months-old Andrew Haldane’s chart plotting history of interest rates from 3000BC through NIRP/ZIRP Oh, a...
Thursday, April 21, 2016

21/4/16: Economic Outlook: Advanced Economies

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My article on economic outlook forward for the Advanced Economies is now out at the Manning Financial quarterly:  https://issuu.com/public...
Saturday, November 21, 2015

21/11/15: Be Kind to Economic Forecasting Dodos...

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Oh, spare a kind thought for the economists... crippled by the intellectual feebleness of algebraic (and utterly useless) models and hamst...
Monday, September 28, 2015

28/9/15: Blow Outs in the Markets: Beware of Debt Financing

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 This is an unedited version of my article in the Village Magazine from June 2015. Three recent events, distinct as they may appear...
Wednesday, February 18, 2015

18/2/15: Inflation Expectations and Consumers' Readiness to Spend

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In an earlier post I provided a rough snapshot of the evolving relationship between inflation and consumer demand. But here is a fresh ac...
Thursday, September 4, 2014

4/9/2014: ECB: Little Done. Loads More to Be Done Still...

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In its latest move in attempting to combat the risk of deflation in the euro area, the ECB pushed the policy interest rate down to 0.05% f...
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Saturday, May 17, 2014

17/5/2014: Growth Forecasts: What Matters and What Doesn't

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This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times article from April 20, 2014. Nothing sums up frustrations of the policymakers and gene...
Tuesday, May 13, 2014

13/5/2014: BIS on Unwinding Global QE: There Will Be Pain...

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BIS Working Papers No 448 "The exit from non-conventional monetary policy: what challenges?" by Philip Turner published last wee...
Thursday, March 20, 2014

20/3/2014: ECB Rates and Policy Expectations

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My comment on ECB policy in Portugal's Expresso: Click on image to enlarge
Saturday, August 17, 2013

17/8/2013: Long-Term Great Unwinding for ECB?..

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On foot of David Rosenberg's pressie on Long-Term Inflation strategy switch ( link here ), here's the ECB Monetary Policy dilemma ...
Friday, August 16, 2013

16/8/2013: David Rosenberg Breaks Consensus on Long-Term Inflation

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The most important note on the market written in the last 12 months, if not longer (and for those forward looking - the most important note...