Showing posts with label Euro area. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Euro area. Show all posts
Sunday, February 7, 2021

6/2/21: Longer Trends in Economic Uncertainty

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  Quite dramatic trends in terms of rising economic uncertainty over the last 21 years: And, not surprisingly, the rise of uncertainty in Eu...
Saturday, October 3, 2020

3/10/20: Eurocoin Leading Growth Indicator 3Q 2020

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  Eurocoin, a leading growth indicator for the euro area published by CEPR and Banca d'Italia posted another negative (recessionary) rea...
Thursday, September 17, 2020

17/9/20: Exploding errors: COVID19 and VUCA world of economic growth forecasts

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  Just as I covered the latest changes in Eurozone growth indicators ( https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/09/17920-eurocoin-leading-gro...

17/9/20: Eurocoin Leading Growth Indicator 3Q 2020

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  Eurocoin, CEPR & Banca d'Italia leading growth indicator for Euro Area economy is pointing to renewed weaknesses in the Eurozone e...
Friday, July 3, 2020

3/7/20: ECB Jumping the Proverbial Shark?

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ECB's money-printing press has been running overtime these weeks. So let's put the Euro area central banks' monetary policy sh...
Monday, June 29, 2020

29/6/20: Eurocoin Growth Indicator June 2020

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Using the latest Eurocoin leading growth indicator for the Euro area, we can position the current COVID19 pandemic-related recession in hi...
Saturday, June 27, 2020

26/6/20: Longer-Term Impact of COVID19 on Growth

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IMF published updated forecasts this week, and here the summary: IMF has stopped doing 5 year forecasts this April, due to uncerta...
Wednesday, June 24, 2020

24/6/20: German Business Sentiment for June: Mixed Signs of the Ongoing Recovery

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Germany's ifo Institute published June survey results for business confidence, reflecting the latest changes arising from the graduate...
Monday, June 1, 2020

1/6/20: COVID19 and European Banking

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McKinsey research note on European banks' potential losses due to COVID19 is quite on the money: With more than 1/3rd of European...
Wednesday, May 27, 2020

27/5/20: Germany: Employment and Business Activity Show Gentle Uptick in May

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Germany employment conditions improved slightly in May, based on ifo Institute survey: The gains are in line with the Business Act...
Tuesday, May 19, 2020

19/5/20: German Hawks vs ECB Doves?

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My article for The Currency  on the German Constitutional Court ruling regarding ECB's PSPP program:  https://www.thecurrency.news/art...
Wednesday, May 6, 2020

6/5/20: Eurozone Composite PMI: Covid Horror Show

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Final Eurozone Composite Output Index came in at 13.6 (Flash: 13.5, against March Final: 29.7). March was bad. April is worse. Final Euroz...
Monday, May 4, 2020

4/5/20: Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs Crater to Historic Lows

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I do not commonly cover Eurozone PMIs, but April read-out is shocking. Truly, abysmally, shocking. From Markit release: Final Eurozon...
Wednesday, April 22, 2020

22/4/20: Eurozone Growth Forecasts

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April data on analysts and institutional forecasts for Eurozone growth over 22 sources, including a range of investment banks and internat...
Thursday, April 9, 2020

9/4/20: Ifo Eurozone Forecast Q1-Q3 2020: Covid19 Impacts

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Germany's ifo Institute joint forecasts for Eurozone growth are out today. Bleak reading. The forecasts below assume that Covid-19 res...
Wednesday, April 8, 2020

8/4/20: Ifo Institute Germany Forecast for 2020

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A surprisingly 'positive' forecast for Germany from ifo Institute this morning: While GDP contraction for 2020 looks sharp a...
Tuesday, January 7, 2020

7/1/20: Euromoney on 2020 Risk Outlook for the Eurozone

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Euromoney on Eurozone risks into 2020, with some comments from me: https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1js9nd289vtm9/country-risk...
Tuesday, December 10, 2019

10/12/19: Irish Banks: Part 2

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Continuing with the coverage of the Irish banks, in the second article for The Currency , available here:  https://www.thecurrency.news/ar...

10/12/19: Irish Banks: Part 1

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Returning back to the blog after a break, some updates on recent published work. In the first article on Irish banking for The Currency,...
Sunday, September 29, 2019

29/9/19: Divided ECB

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Divided they stand... Source:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-29/lagarde-inherits-ecb-tinged-by-bitterness-of-draghi-...