tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post545952947225914651..comments2024-03-26T05:57:44.937+00:00Comments on True Economics: Economics 02/03/2010: Exchequer (still) Singing BluesTrueEconomicshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07350536454228478974noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-61349356597109743062010-03-03T01:16:47.703+00:002010-03-03T01:16:47.703+00:00Constantin,
You may be giving the DoF slightly mo...Constantin,<br /><br />You may be giving the DoF slightly more credit than they deserve. Yes, the Department's Jan-Feb forecast of €4.8 billion in tax revenue is only out by €64 million or 1.3%, but this forecast was made AFTER they knew that €3.074 billion had been collected in January. <br /><br />They only had to predict the outturn for February. The <a href="http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=6181&CatID=5&StartDate=1+January+2010&m=f" rel="nofollow">monthly predictions</a> were <a href="http://www.finance.gov.ie/ViewDoc.asp?DocId=-1&CatID=5&m=f" rel="nofollow">released</a> with the January Exchequer Statement on Feb 2.<br /><br />Here they predicted an outturn of €1.726 billion for February. The actual outturn of €1.662 billion gives a forecast error of -3.7%. Still reasonable, but nearly three times greater than what they will claim.<br /><br />More fun and games with the Department's forecasts <a href="http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2010/03/february-exchequer-returns.html%22" rel="nofollow">here</a>.Seamushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15679299530222667673noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-50288146288235690572010-03-02T23:29:49.626+00:002010-03-02T23:29:49.626+00:00What I don't understand is how the national de...What I don't understand is how the national debt figures into this. We're servicing 77bn of debt. Is that already figured in when the govt says that there is a 5.5bn spending deficit, or is it artfully excluded?<br /><br />http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.phpDavid in Seattlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06440066369333733445noreply@blogger.com