tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post2489053522036731731..comments2024-03-26T05:57:44.937+00:00Comments on True Economics: Economics 22/06/2009: Cutting public wasteTrueEconomicshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07350536454228478974noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-3211458025848861072009-06-22T00:07:03.096+01:002009-06-22T00:07:03.096+01:00Yes, I agree with your assessment of the downside ...Yes, I agree with your assessment of the downside risk on revenue side. My estimates in the post simply used existent DofF projections, varying only expenditure side to reflect my balance sheet.<br /><br />On bonds maturing this year - we have a growing pile of short-term bonds issued earlier this year that mature also this year, so that will have to be rolled over. On capital spending side - I think they are going to cut it back to ca €6bn, although so far they've budgeted for more than that.<br /><br />Another problem will be issuing NAMA bonds.<br /><br />In short - can they borrow this year's requirement? My guess is 70% yes, 30% no.<br /><br />Can they borrow next year's requirements? My guess is 70% no, 30% yes.TrueEconomicshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07350536454228478974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-69054383529984116222009-06-21T23:52:12.161+01:002009-06-21T23:52:12.161+01:00Looking at 2009, I don't think revenue will ex...Looking at 2009, I don't think revenue will exceed 30bn in 2009, and spending, as usual, is out of control, any may well exceed 58bn.<br /><br />Thats -18bn on current plus capital budgetof 10bn, but say 7bn, as its easy to cut Capital Exps. Thats 25bn to be borrowed this year, plus redeem any govt bonds maturing (say 3bn), thats 28bn.<br /><br />As govt is borrowing short, how much next year to be borrowed?, and allowing for FFs inabilty to address spending, 40? 50?. Can the state borrow that? 20-30% of GDP?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com