tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post1747375311449983891..comments2024-03-26T05:57:44.937+00:00Comments on True Economics: Economics 30/05/2010: A gargantuan task aheadTrueEconomicshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07350536454228478974noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-82287372285739626922010-06-01T13:26:45.429+01:002010-06-01T13:26:45.429+01:00Constantin,
Excellent report, can I also include ...Constantin,<br /><br />Excellent report, can I also include the danger of the looming national debt.<br /><br />From the An Bord Snip report, they state that the cateogry that consists mainly of provision for debt-servicing, that the figures show that Central Fund current expenditure will rise to €11.2bn by 2013 from its 2008 baseline of €3.9bn. <br /><br />Does this mean that our interest repayments in 2013 could be 11 billion? Do you know what the central fund expenditure consists of?<br /><br />http://www.onegov.ie/eng/Publications/Bord_Snip_Nua_Volume_I.pdfKevinBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-86935689365134832672010-05-31T14:00:58.177+01:002010-05-31T14:00:58.177+01:00after reading this article and seeing those charts...after reading this article and seeing those charts and figures, and now the country is in a knot over a further €3 billion in cuts, I think it's time to leave the country.Damo Mackerelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14225139210177653458noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-79778217591227436512010-05-30T21:54:55.937+01:002010-05-30T21:54:55.937+01:00Mack, thanks - spot on. Note that our GDP was also...Mack, thanks - spot on. Note that our GDP was also inflated by it - as some of the revenues accruing to MNCs is raised from the Government spending and the private sector boom.TrueEconomicshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07350536454228478974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-85473992303190354872010-05-30T21:52:55.995+01:002010-05-30T21:52:55.995+01:00DofF fiscal data reported in the Exchequer stateme...DofF fiscal data reported in the Exchequer statements is net of associated receipts (see here: Supplementary Budget 2009: Macroeconomic and Fiscal Framework document http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2009Supp/2009Supp.aspx - see page 17 of the document).<br /><br /><br />IMF Fiscal Monitor, May 14, 2010, Table 4, page 85. Ireland General Government Expenditure 2008 = 41.2% of GDP. CSO data (here http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/03/economics-26032010-national-output.html) 17.37% GDP/GNP gap. I have applied the gap of 23% consistent with 2009 gap. Using 2008 gap, you have 49.62% GGE/GNP ratio.<br /><br />The same numbers hold per IMF table 3a from "From Stimulus to Consolidation: Revenue and Expenditure Policies in Advanced and Emerging Economies" Prepared by Fiscal Affairs Department, Approved by Carlo Cottarelli April 30, 2010.<br /><br />The only caveat supplied by the IMF is that Irish figures (as well as all European countries figures) are supplied by the Eurostat, with "capital spending proxied by gross fixed capital formation".<br /><br />Comparisons for other countries are given in the table here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/05/economics-16052010-imf-on-fiscal.html using actual GDP/GNP gaps. Averages are given below.<br /><br />IMF defines general government sector as consisting "of all government units and all nonmarket nonprofit institutions that are controlled and mainly financed by government units, comprising the central, state, and local governments. The general government sector does not include public corporations or quasi- corporations".<br /><br />IMF figures are exactly confirmed in the Stability Programme Updates from Budget 2009 (table 7, line 7: linked here http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2009/2009.aspx) and you can see actual figures for gross expenditure for 2008 provided in the Supplementary Budget 2009: Macroeconomic and Fiscal Framework document (http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2009Supp/2009Supp.aspx - see page 17 of the document). This lists provisional outrun for 2008, Gross Current Expenditure of €53.475 billion, plus Gross Capital Expenditure of €9.048 billion, for a total Gross Government Expenditure of €62.523 billion.<br /><br /><br />Now, per your conjecture about our tax system:<br />1) I agree - it is imbalanced too much in the direction of windfall transactions taxes. However, stamp duties are taxes on property, so it is incorrect to claim that we had no property tax. it simply was a wrong tax.<br />2) Our tax burden is not that much different from other countries, and in fact by many metrics, our state already collects too much in taxes in some areas.<br /><br />Detailed analysis and comparatives for our tax system relative to the peer states are supplied here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/05/economics-19052010-euro-rescue-and-tax.html<br /><br />Lastly, I actually would not compare Ireland to the entire Eurozone, or EU. I would compare Ireland to our real peers - small open market economies that we compete against (and yes, I do recognize that competitiveness is more than just tax and expenditure story). <br /><br />Hope this explains...<br /><br />Thanks for commenting and reading.<br /><br />C.TrueEconomicshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07350536454228478974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-71784585851099357252010-05-30T21:50:06.960+01:002010-05-30T21:50:06.960+01:00Anon -
It wasn't just tax receipts that were ...Anon -<br /><br />It wasn't just tax receipts that were inflated by the credit bubble, GNP was too. Take the massive private sector borrowing out of the picture and government spending as a proportion of the economy would have been much, much higher.Macknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-65629431633509462082010-05-30T19:29:48.222+01:002010-05-30T19:29:48.222+01:00I find these figures very misleading.
CSO gives ...I find these figures very misleading. <br /><br />CSO gives 2008 GNP as 154.5 billion.<br /><br />Dept of Finance gives total govt expenditure in 2008 as 55.7 billion euro. (44.7 current + ll capital). <br /><br />This means government accounted for a little over a third of the economy in 2008 -- well below levels of continental Europe. <br /><br />Or what am I missing here? <br /><br />Our real problem seems to have been a failure to devise a rational taxation system not dependent on bubble revenues from property sales.<br />People on average incomes pay minimal income tax and no local taxes (apart from bin charges); we also have no taxes on property owned. Contrast that with any other developed country including the US.<br /><br />As for cutting govt. expenditure by 23 billion, get real! You'd have to sack every single public sector worker in the country.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com