Wednesday, April 16, 2014

16/4/2014: Tearing Up Ukraine Well Before Crimea

Per Foreign Affairs (hardly a pro-Russian platform): two maps of two consecutive Governments in Ukraine showing the drivers of national rifts between Western and Eastern Ukraine:

Yanukovich Presidency (last Government Cabinet)

Maidan (Yatsenyuk Government Cabinet)

I don't see Russian tanks in either of them. But I do see venal incompetence and nationalist preferences in both that are intrinsic to two, allegedly, different Governments.

As I noted before, Ukraine needs a Government of National Unity, not a pro- or anti- Moscow/Maidan/EU/Nato/US/China/Japan/UN/IMF/... Government.

8 comments:

Brendan Murphy said...

It is interesting when people make superficial facts the foundation of some essential truth, as Gurdiev does here.

Ukraine was not subject to some overthrow, certain well known people primarily from the east fled on foot of a massacre.

The succeeding government was appointed on the vote of a majority of the Verkhovna Rada, where they come from is superficial, as it is an interim government with support.

Across Ukraine there is no significant appetite for separation. Last Thursday's poll shows 70% of the South East opposed to anything other than a united Ukraine. What is going on is Russian forces working with criminal gangs and elements of the corrupt vertical (tax, police, local officials etc) who are seeking to preserve their privileges.

Such is the challenge of a wholly corrupted vertical that orders and directions are disobeyed or not communicated.

It is manipulative at best for Gurdiev to state that he does not see Russian tanks... Of course he doesn't, but there are many in Crimea, an illegally occupied part of Ukraine. By not referencing this fact, Gurdiev is open to the accusation that he is amenable to its occupation by Russia and so ignores any evidence that may make him address this gross violation of international law. What is happening in Crimea is a growing threat to people's lives. Gurdiev needs to be mindful of what is going to follow. In addition, Gurdiev in presenting two simplistic maps with a bland..what Ukraine needs is..ignores the 119 and growing Russian Force personnel arrested across Ukraine with weapons, maps and huge amounts of money.

He also ignores the violent suppression of pro unity protests in Odessa, Kharkov, Donetsk and Slaviansk.

What Ukraine needs is time to replace the corrupt vertical with a more honest one. Transitioning businesses out of corrupt Oligarchs into stable hands is extremely difficult and jobs are at stake, local communities are at stake, social stability is at stake.

This time is being denied by Putin. A government of national unity where rampant corruption is the rule cannot be a solution.

Across Ukrainem honest people like Lesia Orbets, Mykola Malamuzh and very many others are coming forward. They need time to make changes and to see these changes have effect.

They don't need simplistic observations by Gurdiev and his like.

TrueEconomics said...

Hmm...

1) My last name is Gurdgiev (for future references)
2) The post reproduces 2 maps from the US-published Foreign Affairs (linked in the text)

No further comment.

TrueEconomics said...

Hmm...

1) My last name is Gurdgiev (for future references)
2) The post reproduces 2 maps from the US-published Foreign Affairs (linked in the text)

No further comment.

GfsCapital said...

I find interesting how Dr. Constantin is being attacked for showing two simple maps and not taking any particular stance. I suppose it is lack of analysis and good old anti soviet mood in this part of the world.
Second, I wonder if Irish citizen had an opportunity to hold a referendum 100 years ago if they want to be part of Great Britain and what would be an outcome. Would this be fair to Irish nationals and if it would violate international laws?
Get a grip people! Crimera's referendum was an act of freedom!

Anti Katsap said...

Brendan Murphy is 100% correct in what he states. I would venture I know considerably more about the practicalities of living under the rule and corruption of terrorist-mafia gangs in Crimea and East Ukraine as I have lived in Sevastopol for two years and in the Luhansk region in a mining town for one year. Dr Gurdgiev is an academic - I'll bet, unlike me, he has never been kidnapped beaten and robbed by these mobsters. Things are VERY ugly on the ground. In his part of Ukraine you can trust NOBODY - I was shopped for my money and property to the mafia by my girlfriend. Thats how it is here. There is no banking or ATM's, rocketing food prices, a collapsing currency and mob rule everywhere in these places. Its very dangerous. Crimea is a total mess - all legal matters havd now been suspended, shops are running out of food, electricity and water supplies are disrupted EVERY day, ALL non-Russian radio and TV stations have been closed down and on Russians are being subjected to the most exterem discrimination and violence. Brendan is absolutely correct in stating that over 70% of Ukrainians do not want this criminality but they are feraful for their safety and utterly powerless. THE US breached their commitment to defend Ukraine under the nuclear arms handover protocol and they should be taken to task over this. Russia would have crumbled quickly had they the guts to team up with Europe and enter war with Russia. Ukraine and Crimea will IMO be economically dead for many years. All my investments in Crimea and Ukraine are now in doubt. I stand to lose everything thanks to Russia's appalling thuggery and oppression and intimidation of a peaceful people.

Anti Katsap said...

Maybe you should " get a grip "
Gfs ???? ...... what is happening in Ukraien has nothing to do with Ireland - today or in the past .... and in any event even if it had how would the rest of Ireland feel if Dublin decided it was sick of carrying the rest of the country and wanted to set up " an independent Republic " A little common sense is always a good thing. Crimea is now in chaos and will be for YEARS to come. Virtually all tourist bookings (6.0m last year) have been cancelled and the only people likely to travel there now in the foreseeable future are those Russian factory workers who are being told " you must take your vacation in Krim this year " That's dictatorship Russian style while the Mafia mobsters buy up property in places like London and make life unpleasant for anybody that comes up against them or challenges them in any way. They are an obnoxious people in my experience of them.

TrueEconomics said...

Anti, nothing you say is collaborated by evidence beyond hearsay and all of it contradicts your own central claim to knowledge: you lived in Ukraine for three years, per your own statement. Crimea has been annexed to Russia less than 2 months ago. Unrest in Crimea started 3.5 months ago (roughly) so I fail to see how the problems you claim to have witnessed and experienced are being caused by Russian interventions in Crimea.

While your personal experience might be reflective of, well, your personal experience (I have no desire to question this) it is, however hardly unique to Eastern Ukraine or to Southern Ukraine. Corruption is worse in Ukraine than in Russia by many metrics. Shake downs for money by police and mafia are common across the country (especially by police). Your friend behaviour might reflect on her, on you, or on the state of affairs in the country, but it is hardly Russia's fault.

Per your claim of lost investments, may I suggest that if the country you invested in was so dangerous & unsuitable for your business - given experiences you narrated it seems to be - then perhaps you could have thought about investing somewhere else?

Should you choose, however, to think over the matters: Ukraine ranks 127th in the world in protecting investors. Russia ranks 115th. It is hard to see how a more functional economy can make a less functional one even less so.

In Enforcing Contracts, Russia that you decry as the source of lawless mafia state in the areas you lived in is ranked 10th, Ukraine 45th. This is also reflected in corruption perception index: Ukraine ranked 144th, Russia ranked 127th.

This is also collaborated by the economic Freedom Indices: overall, Russia ranks 140th, Ukraine 155th.

I assume you did your homework before investing in Ukraine?.. If not, you should do your homework to match your risk appetite to conditions in the country you are investing in, in the future.

I have no time, nor desire to surgically dissect the rest of your post, but I do suggest - if you want to stay engaged - to move away from the sort of arguments & language you deployed above. I prefer academism to abuse on my site.

TrueEconomics said...

Anti, nothing you say is collaborated by evidence beyond hearsay and all of it contradicts your own central claim to knowledge: you lived in Ukraine for three years, per your own statement. Crimea has been annexed to Russia less than 2 months ago. Unrest in Crimea started 3.5 months ago (roughly) so I fail to see how the problems you claim to have witnessed and experienced are being caused by Russian interventions in Crimea.

While your personal experience might be reflective of, well, your personal experience (I have no desire to question this) it is, however hardly unique to Eastern Ukraine or to Southern Ukraine. Corruption is worse in Ukraine than in Russia by many metrics. Shake downs for money by police and mafia are common across the country (especially by police). Your friend behaviour might reflect on her, on you, or on the state of affairs in the country, but it is hardly Russia's fault.

Per your claim of lost investments, may I suggest that if the country you invested in was so dangerous & unsuitable for your business - given experiences you narrated it seems to be - then perhaps you could have thought about investing somewhere else?

Should you choose, however, to think over the matters: Ukraine ranks 127th in the world in protecting investors. Russia ranks 115th. It is hard to see how a more functional economy can make a less functional one even less so.

In Enforcing Contracts, Russia that you decry as the source of lawless mafia state in the areas you lived in is ranked 10th, Ukraine 45th. This is also reflected in corruption perception index: Ukraine ranked 144th, Russia ranked 127th.

This is also collaborated by the economic Freedom Indices: overall, Russia ranks 140th, Ukraine 155th.

I assume you did your homework before investing in Ukraine?.. If not, you should do your homework to match your risk appetite to conditions in the country you are investing in, in the future.

I have no time, nor desire to surgically dissect the rest of your post, but I do suggest - if you want to stay engaged - to move away from the sort of arguments & language you deployed above. I prefer academism to abuse on my site.