Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

2/2/21: Daylight Saving Time and Carbon Emissions


We usually associate reduction of carbon emissions with reduced consumption, as opposed to variation in timing of consumption, but this association is both too simplistic and also erroneous. Here is why: shifting more consumption activities toward periods of the day when energy generation mix is cleaner (e.g. daylight, when solar can be contributing more to the energy mix) can, quite literally, reduce overall emissions.

Right? Yep. Here is a nice piece of evidence from a natural experiment in Turkey. "In October 2016, Turkey chose to stay on DST all year round." This shifted a lot more consumption by the public from late afternoons to early mornings. As reported in Bircan, Cagatay and Wirsching, Elisa study "Daylight Saving All Year Round? Evidence from a National Experiment" (December, 2020, EBRD Working Paper No. 251, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3751336), overall levels of consumption did not change much, but "the policy has a strong intra-day distributional effect, increasing consumption in the early morning and reducing it in the late afternoon. This change in the load shape reduced generation by dirtier fossil fuel plants and increased it by cleaner renewable sources that can more easily satisfy peak load generation. Emissions from generation decreased as a result." 

Overall, the authors "find that staying on DST during winter months may have led to a reduction in CO2 emissions of between 1,500 and 8,200 tons per day. Hence, the policy change has an unforeseen but beneficial effect of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as generation by “cleaner” power plants substitutes generation from “dirtier” ones to satisfy changes in intra-day demand."

Incidentally, the study does not appear to have considered the effects of solar in their study that should have increased the CO2 abatement effects. It is unclear to me as to why...

Sunday, November 29, 2015

29/11/15: Simple analysis of the EU-Turkey 'deal' on refugees


What does EU-Turkey refugees 'deal' means:

  • With closure of land-crossing, duration of refugees passage to Europe over sea is going to be up;
  • This means that cost of smuggling refugees will rise, which means safety of refugees during crossing is down (due to quality of boats / procedures, as their ability to pay higher costs is severely restricted, and due to longer crossing routes); 
  • Thus, risk of losses of lives is up 
  • Which will require greater sea monitoring & rescue missions efforts to avoid horrific losses of lives (unless EU abandons all and any humanitarian considerations);
  • Which means EU dilemma of what to do with sea-crossing refugees has gone even less solvable, whilst adding a new dilemma of facing Turkey acting as a physical barrier for legitimate refugees, triggering potential humanitarian crisis on Turkish borders.
So, in summary, it is hard to see how the 'deal' is not a humanitarian crisis gone more acute.

Monday, December 15, 2014

15/12/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, December 2014


BlackRock Investment Institute released the latest Economic Cycle Survey results for EMEA:

"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a mixed outlook for the region. The consensus of respondents describe Russia, Croatia and the Ukraine in a recessionary state, the outlook changes to expansion for Croatia over next two quarters." In previous survey, the same three countries were described as likely to remain recessionary.

"At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Russia and the Ukraine. Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 58% of 43 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 28% increase from the net 30% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."


Note: Red dot represents Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Romania, Israel, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia


Previous report was covered here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/10/23102014-blackrock-institute-survey.html

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

23/10/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, October 2014


BlackRock Investment Institute released the latest Economic Cycle Survey results for EMEA:

"The consensus of respondents describe Russia, Croatia, Egypt and the Ukraine in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Hungary and Turkey to be in a recessionary or contraction phase. Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Egypt and Turkey"

Red dot represents Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Israel, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia

"At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Russia and the Ukraine."


Global: "respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 43% of 37 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 7% decrease from the net 50% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy"

Previous month results are here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/10/6102014-blackrock-institute-survey-emea.html


Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Monday, October 6, 2014

6/10/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, September 2014


BlackRock Investment Institute released the latest Economic Cycle Survey results for North America and Western Europe (covered here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/10/6102014-blackrock-institute-survey-n.html). Here are the survey results for EMEA:

"The consensus of respondents describe South Africa, Croatia, Slovenia, Russia and the Ukraine in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Romania to be in a recessionary or contraction phase. Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Russia and South Africa. At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Turkey, Slovenia, Hungary and the Ukraine."

Global: "respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 50% of 36 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 9% decrease from the net 59% figure last month. [There was also a net decrease from 85% two months ago]. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."


Two charts to illustrate:


Previous month results are here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/08/2382014-blackrock-institute-survey-emea.html

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Saturday, August 23, 2014

23/8/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, August 2014


BlackRock Investment Institute released the latest Economic Cycle Survey results for North America and Western Europe (covered here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/08/2382014-blackrock-institute-survey-n.html). Here are the survey results for EMEA:

"…this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a mixed outlook for the region. The consensus of respondents describe Croatia and the Ukraine in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Russia, Hungary and Turkey to be in a recessionary or contraction phase."

6 months out: "Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Russia and Hungary and an even split between expansion or recession for Turkey."

12 month out: "At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Russia, Hungary, Turkey and the Ukraine."

Global: "Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 59% of 32 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 26% decrease from the net 85% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

Two charts to illustrate:


Note: Red dot represents Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Romania, Israel, Egypt, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia.



Previous month results are here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/07/1172014-blackrock-institute-survey-emea.html

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

16/7/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: N. America & W. Europe, July 2014


In an earlier post I covered EMEA results from the BlackRock Investment Institute latest Economic Cycle Survey. Here, a quick snapshot of results for North America and Western Europe.

"This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a positive outlook on global growth, with a net of 81% of 97 economists expecting the world economy will get stronger over the next year, compared to net 67% figure in last month’s report."

"The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

"Eurozone is described to be in an expansionary phase of the cycle and expected to remain so over the next 2 quarters. Within the bloc, most respondents described Greece and France to be in a recessionary state, with the even split between contraction or recession for Belgium. Over the next 6 months, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Greece and France. Over the Atlantic, the consensus view is firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and is to remain so over the next 6 months."


"At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continued with the consensus expecting all economies spanned by the survey to strengthen or stay the same with the exception of Finland which is expected to stay the same."


See June data for comparatives here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/06/1462014-blackrock-institute-survey-n.html - very interesting changes in the first chart above can be traced.

Ireland top question analysis:



Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Friday, July 11, 2014

11/7/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, July 2014


BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.

Per BII: "With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a mixed outlook for the region.

The consensus of respondents describe Russia, the Ukraine and Croatia be in a recessionary state, with an even  split of economists gauging Kazakhstan and South Africa to be a in a recessionary or contraction. Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Kazakhstan and South Africa.


Note: Red dot represents Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Israel, Slovenia, Poland and Slovakia

At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Hungary and the Ukraine.


Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 85% of 34 respondents expecting a  strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 14% increase from the net 71% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Saturday, June 14, 2014

14/6/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, June 2014


BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.

Per BI: "With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a mixed outlook for the region.

The consensus of respondents describe Russia, South Africa, Slovenia, Croatia, and the Ukraine to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Kazakhstan to be a in a recessionary or contraction.
Note: Red dot represents Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Israel, Egypt, Poland and Slovakia

Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for only Kazakhstan.

At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Israel, Kazakhstan, Slovenia, South Africa and the Ukraine.


Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 71% of 41 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 7% decrease from the net 78% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."


Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.


Tuesday, May 6, 2014

6/5/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, April


BlackRock Institute published their April 2014 survey of economic conditions in EMEA region. Here are some takeaways:
  1. "The consensus of respondents describe Russia, Slovenia, Croatia, Turkey and Turkey to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Kazakhstan and Egypt to be a in a recessionary or contraction."
  2. "Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for only Egypt."
  3. "At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Slovenia, Turkey, Russia and the Ukraine."


Russian economy specifics:
  • "How do you think Russia's economy will develop over the next 12 months?" 72% of respondents expect economy to become weaker or a lot weaker
  • "At this time, in which phase of the economic cycle would you say Russia's economy is?" 100% of respondents estimate that the Russian economy is currently in a recession.
  • "Over the next 6 months, in which phase of the economic cycle would you say Russia's economy will be?" 86% of respondents expect Russian economy to remain in a recession.
  • 57% of respondents estimate that currently Russian economy is operating with a positive or zero output gap.
  • 71% of respondents estimate that currently Russian economy operates at above trend inflation that is increasing.


"Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 78% of 40 respondents expecting a  strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 9% decrease from the net 87% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

Note: Red dot represents South Africa, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Israel, Poland and Slovakia.



Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts

Saturday, February 8, 2014

8/2/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, February



BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region. Emphasis is mine.

"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a bullish outlook for the region.

"The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, Croatia, Turkey and, the Ukraine to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging South Africa to be in expansion or contraction. Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for South Africa and the Ukraine."


Note: Red dot represents Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Hungary, Romania, Poland, Slovakia

And out 12 months: "At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Turkey."


"Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 88% of 43 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 6% increase from the net 82% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Friday, January 24, 2014

24/1/2014: The Fragile Five: Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, India and Indonesia


ECR wades in with a weekly analysis of the declining ratings across the Tier 3 countries: the Fragile Five: Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, India and Indonesia: here.

A chart and a table to summarise:



Friday, January 17, 2014

17/1/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, January


BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region. Emphasis is mine.

"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a bullish outlook for the region."

The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, Croatia, Egypt and, the Ukraine to be in a recessionary state and expected to remain so over the next 6 months except for Croatia, where there is an even split between expansion and contraction.

Note: Red dot represents Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Hungary, Romania, Israel, Poland and Slovakia

At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen with the exception of Turkey. So Russia is improving 6mo forward improvement in outlook on current phase (see above chart), but Ukraine is expected to remain in a late cycle recession. Out at 12mo horizon, Ukraine is still expected to underperform Russia.


Note Slovenia's performance expectations. It is worth noting that the IMF is releasing Slovenia's economy's assessment, so it would be interesting to take a comparative look at the Fund expectations.


Globally, respondents to the EMEA survey "remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 82% of 61 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 8% increase from the net 75% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Thursday, December 12, 2013

12/12/2013: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, December 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.


"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a bullish outlook for the region. The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, the Ukraine, Croatia, Egypt and Russia currently to be in a recessionary state.

Forward expectations:

  • Over the next 6 months, "the consensus shifts toward expansion for Russia and Egypt and an even split between expansion and contraction for Croatia."
  • "At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same, with the exception of Slovenia and Ukraine."

Global economy view from the region: "Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle, with a net 74% of 58 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months, unchanged from last month’s report. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy"


Note: Red dot represents Slovakia, Poland, Romania, Israel, Kazakhstan, and South Africa



Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

5/11/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: EMEA October 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.
 A note on latest survey results for North America & Western Europe is available here.

"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a bullish outlook for the region."

"The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, the Ukraine, Croatia and Russia currently to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Egypt to be in expansion or contraction. Over the next 2 quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Russia, Croatia and Egypt and an even split between expansion and contraction for the Ukraine."

"At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same, with the exception of Russia." Russian sentiment has deteriorated significantly in recent months.

"Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle, with a net 73% of 57 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – a 13% decrease from the net of 86% figure in last month. The consensus of economists project a shift from early cycle to mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Here are two summary charts:

Note: Red dot represents Slovakia, Poland, Israel, Kazakhstan, and South Africa. 


Friday, September 6, 2013

6/9/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: EMEA: August 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.
 Note: my note on survey results for North America & Western Europe is available here.

Per summary: "... this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a generally bullish outlook for the region. 

The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, the Ukraine, Croatia, Egypt and Russia currently to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Slovakia to be in expansion or contraction. Over the next 2 quarters, all these countries are expected to stay in a recessionary state except Russia, Slovakia and Croatia. 

At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same, with the exception of the Ukraine and Turkey."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Here are two summary charts: