Showing posts with label Irish Live Register. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Irish Live Register. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

30/7/2014: Some Simple Maths Around Live Register Numbers

There are some positive news on Live Register front today, which you can read about here: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lr/liveregisterjuly2014/#.U9jKTIBdWEI

My friend, Marc Coleman noted in his commentary that:


Progress of sorts, I agree. However, several caveats apply:

  1. The above figures quoted by Marc omit outflows from LR due to expiration of benefits (e.g. two-earners household where one earner becomes unemployed, draws unemployment supports, but then runs out of benefits due to high income of the other earner, etc);
  2. The above reductions also reflect outflows of working age population out of Ireland;
  3. The above reductions reflect exits from LR due to entry into Activation Programmes (e.g. JobBridge) and general tightening of LR access (e.g. people made self-employed before they lost jobs etc).
Let's take a look at the numbers we do know:


  • July 2011: Live Reg total = 470,284;  Unem. rate = 14.3% (estimated at the time, not 14.5% - adjusted later); and State Training Programmes Participants = 54,287 (June - these numbers are reported with a lag of one month, so to make them comparable to currently available data, I took June numbers for 2011).
  • July 2014: Live Reg total = 404,515; Unem. rate = 11.5%; and STPs = 65,709 (June).
  • So STPs difference = 11,422
  • Net emigration 2011-2013 (25-64 years old only, so I exclude 15-24 year olds - the largest category - this gives me some comfort on relating these emigrants to unemployment or underemployment) = 28,900

And we have:

  • Net emigration 2011-2013 and net change in STPs = 40,322
  • Add 2013-2014 emigration at 1/2 rate of 2012-2013 rate for 25-64 year olds = 6,900
  • Live Reg total July 2011 relative to July 2014 change: -65,769
  • Net emigration and STPs change 2011-2013 (estimated): - 47,222
  • Not in the above: exits from LR due to expiration of benefits.

So even without exits from LR, potential improvement in LR for June-July 2014 compared to June-July 2011 is at maximum 18,547, over 3 years or roughly 6,180 per annum.

Reminder, Live Register supported numbers are at 404,515 (LR) +65,709 (STPs) = 470,224. Do the maths as to whether this rate of improvement is really significant enough…

My view is that it is great to see reductions in LR and (not in the current release) there are some good news from the QNHS side that covers new employment. But we need much, much more rapid reductions in unemployment and increases in jobs creation (especially jobs creation at domestic economy levels, not just in MNCs- dominated sectors) to even start talking about any significant 'progress' here.

Good thing, Marc agrees, somewhat:


Wednesday, August 1, 2012

1/8/2012: Some sub-trends in the irish Live Register for July 2012

So, now that you've been fed the 'great news' story by the Irish 'analysts', and having, hopefully read my first post on the subject of Live Register numbers (link here), you might wonder - what sub-trends dominate the time series relating to irish unemployment in July.

Trend 1: long-term unemployment is now at all time high. Here's an honest down the line analysis from the CSO: "The number of long term claimants on the Live Register in July 2012 was 200,086. The number of male long term claimants increased by 4,160 (+3.0%) in the year to July 2012, while the comparable increase for females was 5,864 (+11.1%) giving an overall annual increase of 10,024 (+5.3%) in the number of long term claimants." Let me add to this: July 2012 figure of long-term unemployed is up 837 m/m.


"In July 56.5% (260,237) of all claimants on the Live Register were short term claimants. The comparable figure for July 2011 was 59.6% (280,222). The annual fall of 19,985 (-7.1%) in the number of short term claimants consisted of a decrease of 14,140 (-8.8%) in the number of male short term claimants and a decrease of 5,845 (-4.9%) in female short term claimants."

Now, when you think about it, the long term unemployed numbers include (or are net of) those who lose their benefits due to duration and changes in family circumstances. They are also net of those who leave the LR deciding to emigrate. These effects are much less pronounced for the shorter-term unemployed. And yet, the long term unemployment continues to rise. Not, that is something you won't hear in the Irish media either. Never mind, the 'experts' Irish broadcast editors pick for their panels are smart & do original research, aren't they?

Youth unemployment next: Per CSO "In the year to July 2012 the number of persons aged 25 and over on the Live Register decreased by 1,340 (-0.4%), and the number of persons aged under 25 decreased by 8,621 (-9.7%). Annual decreases in persons aged under 25 have occurred in all months since July 2010. The percentage of persons aged under 25 on the Live Register now stands at 17.5% for July 2012, down from 19.0% in July 2011 and 20.3 % in July 2010." These are NOT seasonally-adjusted figures, so y/y comparatives is all that matters and the news is decent here - at a headline level. Alas, we have no idea whether the young unemployed are getting new jobs or simply emigrate, though given the reduction in LR benefits for the younger workers, most likely they have a stronger incentive to emigrate. They also have a much better ability to do so, due to visa restrictions differences by age and lack of debt chain holding them back in Ireland.


One related sub-theme is that of the quality of employment out there. No direct gauge for it in the LR, but a glimpse via the numbers of casual and part-time signees on LR. per CSO: "There were 88,041 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in July, which represents 19.1% of the total Live Register. This compares with 18.3% one year earlier when there were 85,865 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register. In the year to July 2012 the number of casual and part-time workers
increased by 2,176 (+2.5%)..." So while it is much better to have a casual or part-time job than not to have one, the trend remains the same - that of deteriorating, not improving quality of opportunities.


Nationals v Non-Nationals breakdown shows a slight decline in the proportion of LR recipients who are non-nationals. The fact that this decline has been very shallow and the fact that the numbers of national on the LR is declining at a similar percentage rate as that of non-nationals suggests that emigration is most likely fairly evenly spread between the two categories.


So much more 'speculative' analysis, if you want, but all pointing to either little change or deterioration in the underlying conditions relating to the labor market in Ireland.

1/8/2012: Live Register - Hidden Unemployment Rising

There's a boisterous chatter in the Irish media (unwilling to have any reality voices on the air anymore due to reasons unknown) about the latest headline numbers coming out of the Live Register for Ireland (July 2012 data released today).

Some of it is part-true. Some of it is part-spin. None of it is fully true. So in the next couple of posts I will be uncovering what the figures really do tell us. Stay tuned.

Let's start from the headline numbers:


  • Standardized (Live Register-implied) unemployment rate remains intact at 14.8% in July, same as in June. The SUR is now between 14.7% and 14.8% every month since January 2012 and 14.8% is the highest point reached since the beginning of the crisis (hit first in February 2012). So headline story is: Irish Unemployment Remains at Record High for the Crisis.
  • Last time we had 14.7-14.8% unemployment as measured by the Live Register was back in March-April 1994. Oh, that's right, 1994! Good news, folks, I guess is that it is still off 17.0 absolute record achieved back in December 1986-January 1987, though with a major caveat (see below).
  • Want more 'good news'? Ok: crisis period average SUR is 13.5% and STDEV is 1.33, which means that the current rate of unemployment is more than 1/2 STDEV above the crisis period average.
Chart to illustrate the good news:


Bet you your local friendly radio presenter and their guests didn't mention the above, in fear of undermining your confidence in the economic turnaround.

But, hey, let's keep looking into the data:
  • Overall numbers on Live Register (seasonally-adjusted) are currently at 437,300 (July) down 9,900 on July 2011 (-2.214%). This is good. M/m decline in July 2012 is 2,300 which contrasts with m/m rise in June of 2,500. Which is sort-of good: m/m decline is a good thing, m/m decline that doesn't fully offset previous m/m rise is not so good.
  • Y/y June 2012 LR posted a decline of 6,200 (-1.39%) and this is now bettered by July decline of 9,900 (-2.21%). Which is good.
  • 3mo average LR through July is 0.13% higher than 3mo average through April 2012. Not so good. Year on year, 3mo average LR is 1.77% lower in July. Which is good.



So the above is a mixed bag story. Yet, the story is hardly complete. You see, there are some 76,533 workers out there who are 'engaged' in State-sponsored Live Register Activation Programmes. The CSO has the following to say about them: "Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register." Ugh? That's right - they get paid LR supplements. They don't work for actual pay. They are not unemployed and are not in receipt of state unemployment benefits. Let's add them to the LR, shall we?

Taking into account the numbers engaged in the LR Activation Programmes:
  • There were 513,833 individuals in Ireland on LR as of June-July 2012 (note, Activation Programmes participation is reported with one month lag, just to make life hell for anyone trying to compile real figures).
  • The above number represents an increase m/m on June's 501,516 (some 12,300 up). Year on year, the number of those in receipt of LR benefits is now up (not down) 1,680 (+0.33%) and that is worse than June y/y figure (up 1,429, or +0.29%).
  • Recall that official Standardized Unemployment Rate is 14.8% on 437,300 LR recipients. This implies that counting those in Activation Programmes the real 'unemployment' rate is around 17% (17.4% more precisely, but there's a grey area of estimation errors around there).
  • So the main headline, really, should be - total (official + hidden) unemployment in Ireland is up m/m and up y/y. Not down. Up!



Now, do me a favour (cause I can't find time to do this myself) - check with your local friendly radio / TV station and press - see if any of the 'incisive' analysts/guests/hosts/editors/journalists give you that sort of a breakdown on the numbers? 

Now don't take me wrong - some of these programmes are good, and it is generally positive that people are drawn to them. But until they gain full paying jobs post-completion, they remain unemployed. The Government has no right to write them off as 'not unemployed' by excluding them from the LR.

Sunday, May 6, 2012

6/5/2012: Live Register for April 2012 - Sub-trends Part 2

Last post of three on the Live Register. The first post looked at the core trend in the Live Register, the second dealt with sub-trends by nationality, duration and casual/part-time employment.

In this post, I am dealing with occupational distribution of Live Register.

CSO covers occupational data as follows:

"Craft and related (24.1%) remained the largest occupational group on the Live Register in April, despite the fact that the number in the group fell over the year by 8,580 (-7.6%) to 103,626. The second largest annual percentage decrease was in the Clerical and secretarial group (-5.4%). Slight increases were seen in the Sales group (+1.8%) and the Personal and protective service group (+0.6%) over the year".

Here are some additional details:



Comparing y/y changes by category:



So several interesting things jump out of the data.

As expected, Associated Professional & Technical occupational category performed better than overall Live Register, posting stronger declines. This is consistent with the idea that exporting firms are maintaining their employment levels of mid- to lower-end staffing with some specialist knowledge. Alas, this outperformance is hardly spectacular.

Managers and administrators did relatively well until March 2012, since when their Live Register reductions have been underperforming overall Live Register - a worrying movement, but too short-lived to establish a trend. Clerical and Secretarial is posting some significant improvement relative to overall trend, but this comes on foot of average performance since November 2011 through February 2012.

Craft and related (the category including construction workers) is performing surprisingly well, suggesting that much of 'improvements' in the Live Register overall have been driven by people dropping out of LR coverage, not by jobs creation (recall, construction activity continues to tank).

An interesting feature of underperforming sub-categories is that they include manufacturing-linked Plant and Machine Operatives category (a sign that overall exports-led growth is jobless) and Sales category (showing the level of jobs destruction in domestic services, such as retail).

Changes in 2010-2012 April figures in absolute levels, shown in the first chart above show that Professional and Associate Professional & Technical categories have managed to reduce their overall Live Register counts by a combined 1,415 in two years! This is hardly consistent, overall, with a boom in profits expatriation by the MNCs and exports that we have experienced. Welcome as these numbers might appear, I wonder, how many of these LR reductions were due to emigration of skilled workers?

To summarise, I suspect that the core (practically the only) drivers of LR reductions have been drop-outs from the LR due to benefits expiration (especially for the categories with largest recorded declines), plus transition into state sponsored training schemes, plus emigration. I see basically no evidence consistent with the story that exports-led (or rather MNCs transfer pricing-led) growth has been strongly net additive when it comes to jobs in any of the occupational categories. In fact, this economy might be becoming top- and administration-heavier, rather than more skills-intensive.


6/5/2012: Live Register for April 2012 - Sub-trends Part 1

In the previous post I looked at the headline Live Register stats for April. Here, let's take a look at the sub-trends.


The number of long term claimants on the Live Register in April 2012 was 184,053, up 14,633 y/y and down 412 m/m. This is not seasonally adjusted. Per CSO: "The number of male long term claimants increased by 7,744 (+6.2%) in the year to April 2012, while the comparable increase for females was 6,889 (+15.4%) giving an overall annual increase of 14,633 (+8.6%) in the number of long term claimants.

Numbers of those in casual and part-time employment declined 274 to 88,442 in April 2012. Year on year the number is up 2,848 (+3.33%), compared to y/y change to March 2012 of +2,561 (+2.97%) - marking a slight deterioration of the trend. Overall, as chart below shows, things are running with a slightly upward trend. Again, you can opt to interpret part-time and casual employment as a good thing, or as a bad thing - glass half-full or half-empty, but generally, in my view, absent robust new jobs creation, this speaks more of a hidden unemployment, rather than of nascent entrepreneurship or a pick-up in some hiring activity.


Last 3 months average is now running at 1.89% increase on previous 3 months, and 3.33% rise y/y.

Now, for Live Register breakdown by nationality:



In April 2012, 77,015 non-Irish nationals were on the Live Register, down 1,065 from march 2012 (-1.36%) and down 508 (-0.66%) y/y. In March 2012, y/y decline was 514 (-0.65%). Since series is not adjusted for seasonal variation, it is worth looking at 3mo averages. 3mo average through April 2012 was up 1.72% on 3mo average through January 2012, but down 0.61% on same period 2011. The trend for non-nationals is therefore practically flat.

There were 352,986 nationals on the Live Register in April 2012, representing a decline of 2,988 on March (-0.84%) and a drop of 9,062 y/y (-2.50%). This compares to a y/y decline of 6,625 (-1.83%) in March 2012. 3mo through April 2012 average was down 0.41% compared to 3mo through January 2012 and declined 1.85% y/y. So the series are showing stronger downward momentum, but still a flat, albeit volatile trend. Chart above clearly shows the seasonality pattern and the flat trend.


April 2012 non-Irish nationals accounted for 17.91% of the total number of persons on the Live Register - an increase from 17.64% a year ago, but down from 17.99% in March 2012.


Stay tuned for occupational analysis of the LR in a subsequent post.

Saturday, May 5, 2012

5/5/2012: Live Register in April - trending flat at 'glass half-full'

It's been a while since I updated the Live Register figures, and given that some fresh data was released this week, I think it's time to revisit the trends.

First off, the LR-implied unemployment (or standardized unemployment rate) remained at 14.3% in April 2012, unchanged from March 2012 ad below 14.6% reading for the actual unemployment rate for Q4 2011 (based on QNHS).


So far, crisis-period average LR-implied unemployment rate is 13.8% - still below that for April 2012, although with STDEV of 1.3 we are getting closer and closer to the statistically average rate. Crisis-period average monthly movement in the LR-implied unemployment is 0.14 percentage points, so with zero movement in April 2012, things are better than average. April 2012 marks 6th consecutive month during which the implied unemployment did not rise, of which exactly 3 months have seen zero change in unemployment and 3 months say declines of 0.1 percentage point. So as can be seen pretty clearly, January-April 2012 trend is not exactly encouraging, but on the 'glass half-full' side, it is also not exactly severely disappointing either.



In terms of absolute numbers, seasonally adjusted LR rose by 100 entrants in April 2012 to the seasonally-adjusted 436,000, so year on year LR dropped 6,400 in April 2012 (-1.45%) against a y/y decline of 8,000 (-1.80%) in March 2012. 3-mo average for the period through April 2012 is 1.35% below same period in 2011. This marks a moderate, but positive trend for the series and is a good news.


Alas, as the above figure illustrates, the good news on LR are clearly offset / accounted for by aggressive reclassification of assistance recipients into training programmes. Before you start biting off my head, let me clarify - training and re-training is good, but until the person exits the programme and gains a job, in my opinion, it is dishonest to claim that this person is not unemployed. So, per chart above, if we add March 2012 (latest) data for state training programmes participation numbers, we get 517,440 persons on the live register and in state run training programmes in April (against 517,340 in March). That is a rise of 12,694 y/y (+2.51%).

Chart below shows the LR struggle to break out of the flat trend since Q4 2010 that continues to-date.


The following post will look into some sub-trends in the LR composition.


Thursday, April 5, 2012

Live Register for March 2012 - additional trends

In the previous post on live Register headline figures, I suggested that March 2012 data paints a mixed picture of some changes that might be consistent with early improvements in the trends (although it is too early to tell) and the continuation of the overall high level of unemployment and Live Register supports demands.

In this post, let's take a look at couple sub-trends.

First, consider LR by age - all seasonally adjusted figures:

  • At the end of Q1 2012 there were 360,400 individuals 25 years and older on the Live Register, down from 361,900 (-1,500 or -0.4%) mom and up marginally on 360,200 at the end of Q1 2011. This represents an improvement on February 2012 when yoy there were 3,300 more LR signees age 25+. Q1 2012 average is now 1.07% below Q4 2011 average, however, Q1 2012 average is 0.74% ahead of Q1 2011 average.
  •  At the end of Q1 2012 there were 74,400 individuals age less than 25 on LR, representing a decline of 1,500 (-2.0%) on February 2012 and a drop of 8,400 on March 2011 (-10.1%). This too represents an acceleration in annual decline rate in march, compared to February when yoy decline was 8.4%. Quarter on quarter, average LR participation by under-25 year olds has fallen 4.6% and year on year it is down 9%. Much of this is, most  likely, accounted for by the younger workers' participation in various State training programmes and emigration.

Next trend to consider is for Casual and Part-time workers LR participation:
  • In March 2012, there were 87,716 part-time and casual workers on LR, up 502 (+0.6%) mom and 2,561 (+3%) yoy. This is down from the February 2012 annual growth rate of 3.7%. Quarter on quarter, March 2012 numbers are up 2.1% and year on year average Q1 2012 LR participation by this group is up 3.7%.


Live Register breakdown by nationality:

  • Number of non-Irish nationals on the Live Register fell 675 mom in March 2012 (-0.9%) and it is now down 514 (-0.7%) yoy. However, monthly results conceal the reality of return of the upward (albeit relatively weak) trend in LR participation by non-nationals since September 2011 local trough.
  • Number of Irish nationals on the Live Register is down 4,693 in March 2012 (to 355,974) relative to February and it is down 6,625 year on year (-1.8%)


As the result of the above changes, relative share of non-Irish nationals on the LR has risen for the third moth in a row, reaching 18% in march 2012. This is the highest reading since April 2009.



5/4/2012: Live Register for March 2012 - headline figures

Live Register figures released yesterday provide the evidence for continued flat trend in unemployment with mild volatility to the downside. There are some mixed news coming out of data, worth highlighting - both positives and negatives.

On the neutral side: Live Register implied unemployment rate slipped to 14.3% in March from 14.4% in January and February. This marks a decline from the peak of 14.6% in November 2011. There has been little volatility in the series along the trend since the beginning of the crisis (in part due to subsequent revisions of LR to closer align with QNHS) and this means that 0.1 percentage point move mom is statistically significant. However, given future revision of the data, there is little economic significance to the change. Overall level of unemployment remains elevated. Adding to the Liver Register those who are excluded because they participate in State-sponsored training programmes (see more on this below) would have seen implied unemployment rate closer to 16.6%, instead of 14.3%.


Total number of Live Register signees, seasonally adjusted, stood at 434,800 in March 2012 against 437,800 in February 2012 and 443,100 in March 2011. As I noted before, seasonal adjustment is starting to look slightly off to me - perhaps due to changes in methodology and partially, most likely, due to change in the longer-term trend - the establishment of the relatively flat trend within a narrow band at around 430K-450K since H2 2010 that replaced robust upward trend late 2007 through H1 2009. Nonetheless, if we are to have some goods, here it is:

  • Year on year March 2012 decline in LR is now at 8,300 or -1.87% and this is an improvement on February year on year decline of 3,700 or -0.84%
  • Month on month March Live Register numbers declined 3,000 - the fastest pace of declines since 3,700 drop in December 2011.
  • Q1 2012 average LR is 1.08% below that for Q1 2011.
The CSO also published numbers for February 2012 participation in the Government-run training programmes. Participants in these are not included in Live Register, despite the fact they clearly are in receipt of state benefits. Here, the story is not great - in terms of what I would call 'hidden' unemployment, or perhaps the things are wonderful, given at least some of those in training are getting marketable skills and might be able to transition into jobs. Let's be neutral. 


In February 2012 there were 71,393 individuals engaged in Live Register Activation Programmes of various types. This represents an increase on 62,346 in same programmes in February 2011. The CSO supplied data for similar participants from February 2008. Using rather crude means of taking average increases in 2008-2010 and reversing the data from 2008 back into 2006, chart above plots the 'estimated' (inverted commas are to highlight the fact that for 2006-2007 this data is just purely illustrative, although from 2008 it is reflective of CSO actual figures) Live Register inclusive of those in Activation Programmes.

Here's the unpleasant bit:
  • While seasonally adjusted Live Register fell 8,300 in a year through March 2012, the Live Register with Activation Programme Participants rose over the same period of time by 747. In other words, more people went off the Live Register into Activation Programmes (+9,047) than went off the Live Register (-8,300) in the twelve months to March 2012.
  • The above dynamic, however, is an improvement on February 2012 when Live Register declined 3,700 year on year, while Live Register with Activation Programme Participants rose 5,347.
  • Same is evident in rates of change. Q1 2012 Live Register fell 1.08% yoy, while Live Register with Activation Programme Participants rose 0.85% yoy.
  • Overall, Live Register with Activation Programmes Participants stood at 506,193 in March 2012 against Live Register of 434,800.

On a positive note, monthly decline in the Live Register in march was 6th largest since the beginning of the crisis:




So, as I usually say, some things to cheer about, but let's keep it real - unemployment problem is not going away. One has to keep in mind that LR benefits do run out and people drop off the LR. In addition, rampant emigration is clearly playing a factor here. Unfortunately, CSO does not provide reliable and timely data on jobs creation and destruction to make any determination as to whether the small changes in the Live Register are signifying improved labour markets trends or not.

Next post - some details on nationalities on the LR, part-time employment and other sub-trends.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

30/11/2011: Live Register for November: Monthly Rates of Change

In a follow-up on the previous post, here are monthly changes in Live Register for the duration of the crisis. It is worth noting that Live Register volatility has markedly improved during the last 23 months. Standard deviation in monthly changes in LR for the entire pre-crisis history is 6,935, for the period of the crisis (January 2008-present) it stands at 7,511 (statistically significantly above the pre-crisis levels), but since January 2010 it stands at 2,587 (estimate is small-sample adjusted). Historical STDEV is 7,723, indistinct from the crisis period volatility.

So that chart:

20/11/2011: Live Register - November

Live Register continued a parade of weaker Irish economy performance indicators for Q4 2011. Here are the headlines and updates.

November LR-implied unemployment rate edged up by another 10bps to 14.5% getting closer to 12mo high of 14.6% back in December 2010.

In absolute seasonally-adjusted terms, there are now 448,600 people on LR, up 1,700 month on month from October 2011. Year on year, LR rose 3,700 or +0.83%, back in October, year on year LR stood at 300 down on October 2010 (-0.07%). 3mo MA through November 2011 is 0.13% below 3mo MA through November 2010. In 3 months through November 2011, LR posted zero cumulative change, which contrasts with a decline of 2,200 over 3 months through November 2010 and 4,500 increase in LR for 3 months through August 2011. In 6 months through November 2011 LR rose 4,500, while in January-November LR rose 2,500.


Overall, seasonally adjusted LR number currently stands at the second highest level in history (same level was also attained in August this year and the highest level of 449,400 was attained in September 2010.

Numbers of casual and part-time workers rose once again from 85,029 in October to 86,612 in November or 1,583 mom (+1.86%). Year on year the number of part-time workers rose 6,404 (+7.98%). 3mo MA through November 2011 is up 8.79% year on year.


percentage of non-Irish nationals on LR rose from 17.43% in october to 17.58% in November as decline of 1,347 Irish nationals on LR mom was offset by an increase of 482 non-Irish nationals over the same period. Year on year, numbers of non-nationals on LR is up 737 or 0.99% while number of Irish nationals is up 3,828 or +1.09%. However, last 3mo saw an increase of 0.051% in non-Irish nationals on LR and an increase of 0.033% for Irish nationals.



Per CSO: "The number of long term claimants on the Live Register in November 2011 was 179,890. The number of male long term claimants increased by 19,939 (+18.1%) in the year to November 2011, while the comparable increase for females was 9,624 (+24.1%) giving an overall annual increase of 29,563 (+19.7%) in the number of long term claimants. This rate of increase in long term claimants has been slowing through the year with an annual increase of 57,597 (55.9%) having been recorded in January 2011." I am quite puzzled by CSO's apparent selective interpretation of this data, which appears to present the "positive" side of statistics. The slowdown in the rate of increases in long term claimants appears to be in line with overall slowdown in the rate of increase in the series for unemployment. January 2011 transition rates referenced Q3 2009-Q4 2009 net signees - of which there were, you guessed it, 25,400. But November 2011 transition rates are referencing net signees for Q2 2010-Q3 2010 - of which there were 10,200. So some better analysis would have done here for CSO.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

03/11/2011: Another shallow rise in unemployment

The Live Register figures are out for October with standardized (LR-implied) rate of unemployment inching up to 14.4%. Here are the details.

Live Register-implied Standardized Unemployment Rate (SUR) rose from 14.3% in September to 14.4% in October, matching the levels in July and August. 14.4% is the highest level SUR reached in 10 months through October 2011 and the third highest since the crisis began (note that 14.4% SUR was recorded in 4 months since the crisis began). October 2011 SUR is now identical to that recored in October 2010Chart below illustrates.


Overall, seasonally-adjusted LR rose to 447,100 in October 2011, up 2,700 on September 2011. year on year, LR fell 300 (-0.07%). In September 2011, LR declined 4,300 mom and fell 5,400 yoy (-1.2% yoy). 3mo average through October 2011 is down 0.31% yoy. As shown below, we have a virtually flat trend.

Seasonally-adjusted LR numbers for those 25 years of age and older rose 2,100, from 364,000 in September to 366,100 in October. Year on year the number of 25 years and older workers on LR is up 2,600 (+0.72%) and 3mo average through October is 1.4% above the same period yoy. The numbers of under 25-yo workers on LR increased 500 (+0.62%) from 80,400 in September to 80,900 in October 2011. However, year on year, the number of young workers on LR fell 5,700 (-6.6%) - a shallower fall than in September 2011, but a significant decline. Overall, this suggests that younger workers exits into education, emigration and general falling out of the benefits net can be a significant source for moderating trends in LR figures overall in recent months.

Casual and part-time workers counts on LR rose 1,012 (+1.2%) from 84,017 in September to 85,029 in October 2011. 3mo average through October is now 9.1% above the same period in 2010 and year on year October reading is 7,105 (+9.1%) ahead of October 2010 level. Chart below illustrates.


Numbers of non-nationals on LR fell 384 in October to 75,037 - a decline of 0.51% and are up year on year by 402 (+0.54%). Numbers of Irish nationals on LR declined 6,625 mom (-1.83%) and are up 477 yoy (+0.13%). For both series there were small (less than 0.22%) declines in 3mo average through october, yoy. Please remember - these are not seasonally adjusted.

Per CSO release, "in October 58.2% (250,659) of all claimants on the Live Register were short term claimants. The comparable figure for October 2010 was 65.6% (281,945)." The annual fall of 31,286 (-11.1%) was recorded in the number of short term claimants. "The number of long term claimants on the Live Register in October 2011 was 179,773", up  32,165 (+21.8%) yoy. "This rate of increase in long term claimants has been slowing through the year with an annual increase of 57,597 (55.9%) having been recorded in January 2011."

The rate of increase, however, can be slowing due to several factors not mentioned by the CSO, such as draw down in LR numbers due to training programmes participation, emigration and dropping out of unemployed second earners from the labour force and LR benefits.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

05/11/2011: Live Register surprises on improvement side


According to the latest Live Register data, standardised unemployment rate in September 2011 was 14.3%, down slightly from a rate of 14.4% in August and in line with the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from QNHS (14.2%) for Q2 2011. The average unemployment rate during 2010 was 13.6% while the average rate for 9mos of 2011 to-date is 14.2%.



On a seasonally adjusted basis there was a decrease of 5,400 (-1.2%) on the Live Register in the month to September 2011 bringing the seasonally adjusted total to 442,200. Per CSO: "This decrease follows four consecutive months of relatively low increases in the seasonally adjusted series. Over the last twelve months the seasonally adjusted Live Register has remained in the relatively narrow range of
441,600 to 447,900". Importantly:
  • We now have the largest decrease in seasonally adjusted LR since September 2007.
  • Year on year LR declined 5,700 or 1.28% against previous month year-on-year increase of 1,200 (+0.27%)
  • Q3 2011 average LR is now up 0.39% on Q2 2011 and 0.15% down on Q3 2010.
The above suggest significant decreases in LR, although the source of these decrease is unclear, as exits from benefits and/or emigration would reflect positively on LR figures, while having an adverse impact on overall economy.



Charts above illustrate the two trends - one of moderating decrease in LR and the other chart showing just how significant the drop of 5,700 is compared to historical monthly changes.

On a seasonally adjusted basis there were monthly decreases of 3,000 males and 2,400 females on the Live Register in September 2011 which implies that female unemployment (of lesser vintage than average male unemployment) is somewhat sticker for now. The same is confirmed by the annual data, with the number of female claimants increasing by 2,834 (+1.9%) to 155,453 over the year, while the number of male claimants decreasing by 7,810 (-2.7%) to 281,988.

The number of long term claimants on the Live Register continued to increase over the year with 41.9% of claimants in September 2011 on the Live Register for one year or more, up on 33.4% in September 2010.

Trends for national v foreign workers on LR and for casual and part-time LR signees are illustrated below:

So on the net - the new data is encouragingly strong on monthly decline side, but requires further confirmations in October-December to raise confidence that we are witnessing a sustained trend. It also requires cross-referencing to changes in the labour force that can only be performed using QNHS results for Q3.

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

31/08/2011: Irish Live Register - unemployment's up in August

Live Register data for August shows that the seasonally-adjusted number of signees increased from 448,000 in July to 449,600 in August - a rise of 1,600 mom. The same rate of increase was recorded in June.

In 3 months through August, Live Register rose by 5,700, while in preceding 3mo period (through May) it was up 3,300. Year on year LR rose 4,600 in July or 1.04%, in August, yoy increase was 2,500 or 0.56%.

Live Register-implied unemployment rate rose from 14.3% in July to 14.4% in August.

Charts to illustrate:

Some more details on the latest figures:
  • In August, the numbers of those 25 years and older on the LR has increased by 2,000 (+0.55%) mom from 366,100 in July to 368,100. Year on year, this category of LR is now up 7,100 or +1.97%. For the 3 months through August, the number of LR signees rose 2.24% compared to the 3 months through August 2010.
  • Number of persons under 25 years of age on LR has fallen 400 in August, compared to July and now stands at 81,500. The number is down 6.54% yoy (-5,700).
  • Numbers of casual and part-time workers on LR in August stood at 85,296 (down 569 on July) - first monthly drop in the series since May 2011. Part-time and casual workers numbers are now up 7,014 yoy (+8.96%).
  • Numbers of non-Irish nationals on LR has declined 290 in August, compared to July, from 79,285 in July to 78,995 in August. Year on year, August numbers are up 138 (+0.18%)
  • Numbers of Irish nationals on LR have also fallen in August from 390,999 in July to 390,719 in August. This follows 11,972 increase in June-July and 15,058 increase in May-June. Number of Irish nationals on the LR are now up 2,653 in August 2011 compared to August 2010 (+0.68%).
In unadjusted terms there were 469,713 on the LR in August 2011, up 2,790 (+0.6%) over the year. This increase was, per CSO, "slightly less than that recorded in July 2011 (+3,460 or +0.7%) and is far less than the increase of 30,198 (+6.9%) seen in the year to August 2010."

Per CSO: "The number of female claimants increased by 5,888 (+3.5%), to 172,860 over the year while the number of male claimants decreased by 3,098 (-1.0%) to 296,853. This compares with increases of 14,419 (+9.5%) and 15,779 (+5.6%) for females and males respectively in the year to August 2010." Which suggests that we are still in the second stage of jobs destruction, with services jobs going at a faster pace and with women (traditionally last to be laid off) continuing to suffer from jobs destruction.

Perhaps the most worrisome sign of the labour markets flat on the ground is that the number of long term claimants continued to increase with 40.8% of claimants in August 2011 on the Live Register for one year or more. In August 2010 long term claimants made up 31.8% of the total Live Register. Further, per CSO: "The number of male long term claimants increased by 30,488 (+28.3%) in the year to August 2011, while the comparable increase for females was 12,688 (+31.3%) giving an overall annual increase of 43,176 (+29.1%) in the number of long term claimants".

Thursday, August 4, 2011

04/08/2011: Live Register for July 2011

Live Register data is out today for July.

Per CSO: "The standardised unemployment rate in July 2011 was 14.3%, up slightly from a rate of 14.2% in June. The monthly increase in the standardised unemployment rate was caused by an increase of 1,500 (+0.3%) in the seasonally adjusted number of persons signing on the Live Register. The latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the QNHS was 14.0% in the first quarter of 2011."

Mapping this:
Again, quoting CSO: "Since May 2010 the seasonally adjusted Live Register total has remained within the range of 440,700 and 448,200, indicating that while there have been fluctuations, the overall trend in the Live Register has remained relatively flat over this period."
Of course, the statement above can be checked against a shorter-term horizon trend: year on year there has been an increase of 2,400 in seasonally adjusted LR or 0.54%. In June 2011 the same figure was 4,600 or +1.04%, suggesting that the July bounce up is rather shallow. 3mo moving average for current period is up 1.13% on previous period. This confirms CSO statement.

In July 2011 there were 470,284 people signing on the Live Register representing an increase of 3,460 (+0.7%) over the year. Adjusting for seasonality, total number of signees was 447,900 in July against 446,400 in June - a rise of 1,500 down from a previous monthly increase of 2,500.
Similarly in unadjusted terms, July increase was less than that recorded in June 2011 (+5,066 or +1.1%) and far less than the increase of 34,403 (+8.0%) seen in the year to July 2010.

CSO highlights that "On a seasonally adjusted basis there were monthly increases of 1,300 females and 300 males on the Live Register in July 2011. The number of female claimants increased by 6,150 (+3.7%), to 172,514 over the year while the number of male claimants decreased by 2,690 (-0.9%) to 297,770. This compares with increases of 15,280 (+10.1%) and 19,123 (+6.8%) for females and males respectively in the year to July 2010." Again, the trend is relatively clear here with later stages of unemployment driving up female signings to LR, while emigration is most likely driving male exists in the early stages of the process.

Another structural problem we face is that of long-term unemployment: "The number of long term claimants increased by 45,508 in the year to July 2011, bringing to 40.4% the proportion of claimants that have now been on the Live Register for one year or more. In July 2010 long term claimants made up 31.0% of the total Live Register."

The quality of employment is not improving either. "There were 85,865 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in July, which represents 18.3% of the total Live Register. This compares with 16.9% one year earlier when there were 79,072 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register. In the year to July 2011 the number of casual and part-time workers increased by 6,793 (+8.6%), with the number of males increasing by 4,015 (+9.6%) and the
number of females increasing by 2,778 (+7.4%)."

  • There were no notable changes in July patterns in terms of LR signees under- and over-25 years of age. Year on year, numbers of LR signees 25 years and older increased by 7,500 or 2.09%, while number of signees under 25 years of age has declined 5,100 or -5.86%.
  • Numbers of casual and part-time workers rose seasonally adjusted 6,793 year on year in July (up 8.59%)
Per CSO analysis: "In July Irish nationals accounted for 83.1% (390,999) of the number of persons on the Live Register. Of the 79,285 non-Irish nationals, the largest constituent group
on the Live Register continued to be nationals from the EU15 to EU27 States (41,732), followed by the UK (19,006). In the year to July 2011 the number of Irish nationals on the Live Register increased by 3,387 (+0.9%), while the number of non-Irish nationals increased by 73 (+0.1%)."