tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post7318413844385177764..comments2024-03-26T05:57:44.937+00:00Comments on True Economics: Economics 6/9/10: Summer of missed opportunitiesTrueEconomicshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07350536454228478974noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-50060093516580989732010-09-15T00:34:00.972+01:002010-09-15T00:34:00.972+01:00"If you haircut bonds/depositors we might low..."If you haircut bonds/depositors we might lower your costs in the immediate, however Ireland would implicitly have defaulted and therefore would become unfundable"<br /><br />In country's where there has been a default, has that country been excluded from borrowing money from the international investors subsequently?<br />if so, could you name the country in that instance?<br /><br />Thanksottogunschehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02121421997468062531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-24813990062571312162010-09-12T17:05:38.041+01:002010-09-12T17:05:38.041+01:00Robert,
I was including all who are paid by the St...Robert,<br />I was including all who are paid by the State in one capacity or another(not scientifically I might add) as opposed to those who solely work for private enterprise.<br />By self servants I mean those State employees who have metamorphosed into a mindset of nepotistic self preservation to the detriment the public role they fulfil. To be fair, not all TD's fall into that category, FF or otherwise, though I realise that is hard to believe.Furrylugsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-85399444305420894262010-09-11T20:00:54.463+01:002010-09-11T20:00:54.463+01:00Furrylugs
There are roughly 300,000 public serva...Furrylugs <br /><br />There are roughly 300,000 public servants.<br /><br />I'm not sure what you mean by a self servant. Presumably you are talking about FF TDs - in which case there are 77 of them.Robertnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-26687448192245319752010-09-11T15:10:38.688+01:002010-09-11T15:10:38.688+01:00your 1st point in the banking proposal regarding d...your 1st point in the banking proposal regarding debt haircuts. Firstly this has already happened to subordinated holders of pre-crises issues. However haircutting senior bonds is an entirely different proposal and one you seem to misunderstand. Firstly senior ranks pari passu with deposits, this is enshrined in contract and would be nigh on impossible to change. And I don't see anyone advocating a haircut for depositors, so frankly it's unworkable. Secondly and a more subtle point, this proposal might make sense in acedemia but holds no water in the real world. If you haircut bonds/depositors we might lower your costs in the immediate, however Ireland would implicitly have defaulted and therefore would become unfundable. There would be a flight of capital from the banks/country and we would bankrupt overnight. Not a good solution.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-86095076505508840512010-09-11T01:51:10.205+01:002010-09-11T01:51:10.205+01:00Using the complex DoF mathemathical model, Two and...Using the complex DoF mathemathical model, Two and Two are Four until Tomorrow, we can easily calculate what happens next, given some known factors.<br /><br />1. There are roughly 1 million students<br />2. There are roughly 1.5 million Civil, Public & Self Servants<br />3. There are roughly half a million genuinely unemployed<br />4. There are roughly quarter of a million Hopeless & Useless<br />5. There are roughly quarter of a million emigrated<br />5. From a population of roughly 4.5 million that leaves roughly one million left working in private sector wealth generation.<br />6. A large chunk of those, say another quarter of a million are in the FDI wing of the economy, directly or indirectly.<br />7. This leaves something like three quarters of a million folks now tasked with the smart,new,knowledge,debt servicing economy.<br /><br />Given that;<br />a. Everything is now “manageable”<br />b. Peter Matthews / Constantin Gurgiev are more or less on the button<br />c. Everyone on here are alarmist extremists prone to negativity<br />d. We only owe our GNP annually in repayments<br /><br />Then in dividing d. by 7. we see that the tooth fairy, patriotically, will have to contribute his fair share as will Lúidín MacLú and his pot of gold.<br /><br />All this I have derived from True Economics. Good man Constantin.Furrylugsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-31155944962772773002010-09-10T01:44:20.086+01:002010-09-10T01:44:20.086+01:00Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere an...Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;<br />Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,<br />The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere<br />The ceremony of innocence is drowned;<br />The best lack all conviction, while the worst<br />Are full of passionate intensity. Surely some<br />revelation is at hand;<br />Surely the Second Coming is at hand.<br />The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out<br />When a vast image out of Spritus Mundi<br />Troubles my sight: somewhere in the sands of the desert<br />A shape with lion body and the head of a man,<br />A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,<br />Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it<br />Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.<br />The darkness drops again; but now I know<br />That twenty centuries of stony sleep were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,<br />And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,<br />Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?<br />.<br />— WB Yeats's "Second Coming"CELTIC MELTDOWNhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04230571607023775875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-79960790013244938332010-09-09T11:16:28.538+01:002010-09-09T11:16:28.538+01:00Thanks for your ongoing clarity about the situatio...Thanks for your ongoing clarity about the situation. I am far from being a right libertarian but have the utmost appreciation for your watchdogging.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-15800204592296196612010-09-08T12:49:02.669+01:002010-09-08T12:49:02.669+01:00Constantin, I take issue with the title "summ...Constantin, I take issue with the title "summer of missed opportunities"!<br />It should read "23 months of missed opportunities" becaus since September 2008 there has been little or no real reform of the banking sector in particular.<br /><br />The banks who got themselves in to this mess remain largely unchanged (apart from Anglo Irish Bank), yet they still call on this State to bail them out!<br />The board of directors of these six guaranteed institutions are virtually the same as they were pre-September 2008.<br /><br />Your points about the tax yield are 100% correct.<br />We had two budgets during 2009 which were supposed to be "drastic and final measures" to stabalise the tax shortfall and yet we see that tax yields continue to fall as the wider economy deteriorates in 2010.<br />In 2009, income tax rates iincreased and tax bands widened - yet neither change has managed to offset the downturn in tax yields in 2010.<br /><br />The CP deal which is binding to 2014 needs to be scrapped.<br /><br />With every single policy change/amendment this goverment aoppears to have got it wrong to a great degree.<br /><br />The steps taken to stabalise the fiscal situation have not delivered.<br />The steps taken to free up bank credit have not increased credit to the economy.<br />The steps taken to repay the debts<br />transferred from a private bank to the States balance sheet, have resulted in this country having to pay more in interest for our country's borrowings.<br /><br />This goverment appears clueless.<br /><br />Please do keep up the good work because without analysis of the numbers which you and others are providing, the great unwashed like me would be none the wiser!ottogunschehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02121421997468062531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-16398303259489130562010-09-07T04:45:59.454+01:002010-09-07T04:45:59.454+01:00Agreed!
Tax revenues will fall in the self employ...Agreed!<br /><br />Tax revenues will fall in the self employed sector as the proprietors prepare to parachute into the UK, Indonesia Panama or wherever. There are numerous sites offering advice on incentives to retire. What most commentators fail to appreciate is that the self employed are crucial tax collectors! VAT, PAYE all fall due even if the enterprise is falling over. We expect the owner to acquiesce in the rape of his once fine business! They are meant to meekly accept poverty, while signing cheques to the exchequer for hundreds of thousands? No!<br /><br />There is no way the Revenue Commissioners can stop it either. Many of my colleagues were aghast at what transpired in better times.<br /><br />You ain't seen nothin' yet! As Al Jolson said!Fungus the Photo!https://www.blogger.com/profile/14879977479841544025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-87261364022936532322010-09-07T00:51:18.428+01:002010-09-07T00:51:18.428+01:00Re the 9 points....
Vividly remembered are the no...Re the 9 points....<br /><br />Vividly remembered are the none somnambulistic but wide open eyes of Brian Lenihan staring into cameras on countless occasions stating: "THERE IS NO OTHER WAY!"<br /><br />Let us not forget, he operates Anglo at 'arms length' and with Alan Dukes on board, what are you afraid of Constantin? Since Brian Cowen became Finance Minister in 2004, they all acted clearly in the best interest of the Taxpayer, ahem.... cough cough. <br /><br />To Constantin's readers, if you have young children, scratch that idea of learning irish you might have on your agenda for them, substitute it with learning mandarin as soon as possible instead, you will do them a great service! Best, Georglaughingbearnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-82006008304306881672010-09-06T19:37:46.847+01:002010-09-06T19:37:46.847+01:00Constantin.
A disturbing view of our future.
Tough...Constantin.<br />A disturbing view of our future.<br />Tough times ahead for the hard pressed taxpayer.<br />But still so much talk of public debt which in comparison to our private debt is realtivley small.<br /><br />What are the consequences for further impairments to bank balance sheets as private debt becomes unmanageable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-61810636843392021212010-09-06T18:53:35.727+01:002010-09-06T18:53:35.727+01:00Excellent article and analysis. Will the last to l...Excellent article and analysis. Will the last to leave, please turn out the lights!ALnoreply@blogger.com