tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post1021148695022052044..comments2024-03-26T05:57:44.937+00:00Comments on True Economics: Economics 05/08/2009: Irish Exchequer - back into the furnace for a fresh meltdownTrueEconomicshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07350536454228478974noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-13282421600562913732009-08-06T22:33:42.032+01:002009-08-06T22:33:42.032+01:00If the tax take is x% below target, increasing tax...If the tax take is x% below target, increasing tax to compensate will cause it to fall faster. It's a bloodbath out there! No one is spending and jobs are evaporating.<br /><br />Cashflow has to be an issue. Where is the cash coming from? ECB is not going to feed this furnace for much longer. Is there any way to predict when this cash may dry up? I'd like to see someone try answer this. What are the emerging external pressures that could force the government's hand and can we put a timeline on these externals?Philipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-1699765533295387402009-08-06T17:18:26.343+01:002009-08-06T17:18:26.343+01:00The numbers are awful but this one is just mind bo...The numbers are awful but this one is just mind boggling:<br />"Total current expenditure is up 4.55% yoy in nominal terms."<br />We've had to listen to all kinds of shouting and roaring all year about "cutbacks" and current expenditure is still up?!Another John Mnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-19023798187703243122009-08-06T10:19:06.507+01:002009-08-06T10:19:06.507+01:00I'm getting worried about Brendan Keenan's...I'm getting worried about Brendan Keenan's commentary in the Indo. Normally he's quite sound but I think his analysis is the dog that's not barking. Take his reaction to today's news. The dilemma is what to do about this shortfall.<br /><br />He writes 'Should the Government try to make it up with yet more spending cuts or tax rises this year?' - Spending cuts? What spending cuts?<br /><br />'...The reason for the slippage is not government spending, which is on target, but the fact that the economy is doing even worse than feared in April.'<br /><br />- for heaven's sake. That's straight out of ICTU. 'We're not spending too much: we're just taking in too little money in taxes'.<br /><br />'Even though its targets have not been met, the fact is that the Government has applied an astonishing €9bn fiscal correction, or 6.5pc of national income (GNP) since October..<br /><br />'Of course this depresses the economy further. But opposition politicians, trade union leaders, commentators -- and, perhaps, pharmacists -- might like to note that, had it not been done, the IMF would be running the show by now.'<br /><br />- and that would be worse in what particular way?<br /><br />This is group think and it's worrying that B Keenan is falling into it.Paul MacDonnellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17707637371855622418noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8817171247555815363.post-74452638272735261672009-08-06T09:36:58.545+01:002009-08-06T09:36:58.545+01:00As ever, all we are seeing is a negative feedback ...As ever, all we are seeing is a negative feedback on growth - grow or generate business mean attracting debilitating taxes. There either seems to be a belief in government circles that people will take whatever pain is needed without protest (recent history seems to bear this out).<br /><br />The problem is that we have no recent (or not so recent) history for a full scale economic blowout -which this is becoming. Come september, as people get back to work, there will be new rash of decisions on redundancies and whether or not to stay in Ireland. Execution of any workplan to stem any further losses had in this country will be effected before the year end. I see no reason whatsoever why we will not be approaching 20% unemployment within a year.<br /><br />Something has to give or someone needs to wise up in government before it's too late.Philipnoreply@blogger.com