Monday, January 4, 2016

4/1/16: Eurocoin signals flat 4Q 2015 growth in the Euro area

Euro area leading growth indicator Eurocoin, released by Banca d'Italia and CEPR, posted a reading of 0.45 in December, marking a rise from 0.37 in November and signalling some improvement in growth conditions. However, on 3mo average basis, 4Q 2015 reading came in at 0.393 against 3Q 2015 reading of 0.402. Given 3Q reading coincided with preliminary real GDP expansion of 0.3 percent, this suggests that actual growth did not tick up significantly from 3Q.

Overall, from both growth and inflation points of view, the ECB policies remain ineffective:

Overall, per Eurocoin release, the upside to the indicator in December was provided by  household consumption, labour market performance and the upturn in industrial production. In other words, we have domestic demand-driven growth, which is a net positive compared to the first half of 2015 when growth still relied predominantly on financial markets valuations and exports.

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