Tuesday, December 1, 2015

1/12/15: Euro area Manufacturing PMI and Forward Growth Indicators


Eurocoin for November - euro area's leading growth indicator - remained basically flat at 0.37, rising only marginally from 0.36 in October. Both months are posting readings below 3mo and 6mo averaged (0.373 and 0.392), signalling growth at around Q2-Q3 2015 average.



In summary: little evidence in growth acceleration from 3Q 2015 levels. It is worth noting that preliminary growth estimate for 3Q 2015 came in at 0.3%, joint-lowest since 2Q 2014 (3Q 2014 growth was identical to 3Q 2015). This stands contrasted to today's Markit Manufacturing PMI for Eurozone which posted a reading of 52.8 for November (moderately strong expansion) up on 52.3 in October.


It is worth noting that both PMIs and Eurocoin have posted over-estimates of actual growth conditions in recent months.

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