Fitch survey of European credit investors shows that “the risk posed over the next 12 months by adverse developments in one or more emerging markets was high” at 59% up from 45% in previous survey in July. European investors continue to see EMs as the key drivers of downside fundamentals risks for 2016, with 3/4rs (80%) of all respondents saying EMs sovereign (corporate) fundamentals are likely to deteriorate in 2016 compared to 2/3rds (60%) in July survey. Some more details:
- 29% of respondents see low commodity prices as the main risk to EMs,
- 26% see the key driver as slower global growth,
- 24% are expecting a Fed rate rise to be a key trigger for EMs risks amplification, and
- 21% cite high debt levels as the main driver.
Fitch global growth forecast of 2.3% for 2015. Table below supplies IMF forecasts and historical comparatives:
Strangely enough, much of this focus on the EMs for European investors is probably down to the European economy having settled into what appears to be its 'new normal' of around 1.2-1.4% growth pattern - sluggish, predictable and non-threatening, thereby shifting focus for risk assessments elsewhere.