Saturday, September 19, 2015

19/9/15: Irish Construction PMIs: August 2015


Irish Construction Sector PMIs for August showed moderate de-acceleration in sector growth.

Per Markit:


On a 3mo average basis:
  • Overall Construction Sector PMI stood at 60.4 in 3mo through August 2015, up on 57.8 for the 3mo average through May 2015, but down on same period a year ago (61.3).
  • Housing Activity sub-index posted deterioration m/m. However, on a 3mo basis the index through August 2015 (58.7) was up on the 3mo average through May 2015 (56.5), but down on 3mo average through August 2014 (63.5).
  • Commercial Activity sub-index posted deterioration m/m. On a 3mo basis the index through August 2015 (61.3) was up on the 3mo average through May 2015 (59.4), but down on 3mo average through August 2014 (62.4).
  • Civil Engineering activity sub-index posted deterioration m/m and a reading sub-50.0 for the second consecutive month. On a 3mo average basis, 3mo average through August 2015 was at 50.1, identical to the 3mo average through May 2015 and up on 47.6 average through August 2014.

Thus, all sub-indices have deteriorated on a m/m basis, and all, with exception of Civil Engineering, posted deterioration y/y on 3mo average basis.


As shown in the chart below, two key sub-indices of construction sector activity remain above 50 mark, but a sharp deterioration in overall growth momentum for the second month in a row. Both sub-series are signalling potential reversal in the positive momentum trend from September-November 2014 on.

In Civil Engineering, a brief recovery momentum signalled in Q4 2014 has now been erased:



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