Wednesday, February 4, 2015

4/2/15: Russian Services & Composite PMIs: January


Russian manufacturing PMI slipped deeper into contractionary territory posting 47.6 in January compared to 48.9 in December, as covered here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/02/2215-irish-manufacturing-pmi-january.html

Today's release of the Services PMI adds to the gloom. Services PMI posted its fourth consecutive monthly reading below 50.0, coming in at abysmal 43.9 in January, down from an already disastrous 45.8 in December. 3mo MA through January is now at 44.7 - a deep contraction, deepest since 2009 recession. This compares to the already contractionary 49.4 3mo MA through October 2014. 3mo average through January 2014 was benign 52.2. So we have a full swing of 7.5 points year on year on a 3mo MA basis.

Things are bad over both sectors of the economy, implying that the Composite PMI should be performing poorly as well. No surprise there, hence, with Composite PMI falling to 45.6 the lowest monthly reading since May 2009 and the fourth consecutive monthly reading sub-50. 3mo average through January 2015 is at 46.8, marking significant contraction that accelerated from October 2014 through January 2015. This compares to 3mo average of 50.4 for the 3 months period through October 2014 and with 51.5 3mo average through January 2014. Year on year, 3mo average reading is now down 4.7 points.



In summary, January m/m decline in PMIs was second steepest over 12 months period for Manufacturing, fourth steepest for Services and third steepest for Composite PMI.

The downward trend across all series is being reinforced since Q3 2014.

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