Thursday, January 22, 2015

22/1/2015: Some recent stats on Russian economy


Couple of recent stats for Russian economy:
  • Federal Budget Deficit for 2014 full year was 0.5% of GDP or RUB328 billion (ca USD 5 billion). Meanwhile, the Cabinet prepared a new Budgetary plan for dealing with the crisis which includes RUB 1.375 trillion (USD21 billion) worth of new measures. Amongst reported changes: RUB 250 billion worth of state banks recaps funds via the National Wealth Fund; RUB 86 billion of new subsidies for agriculture, industry and health, plus some regional tax breaks for SMEs.
  • As reported by the Russia Insider (http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/01/22/2624) Russian banks dramatically increased bad loans provisions in 2014, up 42.2% y/y compared to 16.8% growth in 2013. Based on Sberbank estimates, if oil averaged USD40/pbl over 2015, Russian banks provisions will have to rise some USD46 billion. Meanwhile, banks profits run some 40% below 2013 levels. In 2012, Russian banks profits stood at RUB 1 trillion (USD15.3 billion), and in 2013 profits were RUB 994 billion (USD15.2 billion). In 2014 banks profits fell to RUB 589 billion (USD9 billion). Ugly numbers.
  • Rental values for Moscow apartments were all over the shop in Q4 2014: Economy Class average rental rate in Rubles rose 1.1% q/q despite reports of falling demand from the migrants, while Comfort Class average rentals were down 1% q/q. Business Class rental values were up 0.71% q/q, but Elite Class rentals were down massive 11.5% q/q. So mixed signals from the rental markets overall. 

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