Sunday, December 28, 2014

28/12/2014: Oil Prices: USD70bbl in 2015?.. May be so...

Forecasting oil prices is a rather tough job, especially if we are witnessing a regime change, rather than a temporary glitch in the markets. Nonetheless, here is the set of forecasts from the markets (options), forecasters (consensus) and Goldman Sachs:

Noticeable features: all, but futures markets bets are starting to converge in H2 2015. End-of-2015 forecasts are pretty close for Goldman and Bloomberg survey.

A bit more detailed reporting on forecasts here:

All in, it does appear that USD70 bbl average price for 2015 is not out of line with market consensus, albeit it is not consistent with futures markets contracts.
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