Wednesday, November 26, 2014

26/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: Employment by Broader Sectors

In the previous post I covered the issue of unemployment duration and distribution of long-term unemployment by age cohorts (see http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ru/2014/11/26112014-qnhs-q3-2014-long-term.html).


So now, lets take a look at the sectoral distribution of jobs in the economy.

Across all economic sectors, employment numbers rose in Q3 2014 to 1,926,900 - a rise of 1.45% y/y (+27,600) which represents a slowdown in the rate of growth compared to Q2 2014 when employment expanded by 1.7%.

On a 4 quarters average, current employment levels are at 1,906,630 and this is 2.18% ahead of the 4 quarters average for the period through Q3 2013.

All good. Catch is: we are still only at slightly above Q4 2009 levels in terms of overall employment and are down 3.48% on the highest level recorded during the current crisis period. Overall levels of employment are still 9.47% below the 2008 average levels.

As I noted in previous post, there are good reasons to look at the non-agricultural private sector employment as core indicator for economic activity. Here, Q3 2014 level of employment is at 1,325,500 which is 1.32% (or 17,300) ahead of Q3 2013. The rate of employment growth in Q3 was also slower than in Q2 (1.68% y/y). Q4 2013-Q3 2014 average is at 1,302,900 which is 1.87% ahead of Q4 2012-Q3 2013 average.

Our jobs markets performance was fairly positive compared to 2010-present average as shown in the chart below, but much of this positive performance disappears once we take out public sector and agricultural jobs from the equation.

So in the nutshell, Irish economy added 27,600 jobs in a year though Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013. but only 17,300 of these jobs were private sector non-agricultural jobs.



Agricultural employment grew by 6.19% y/y in Q2 2014 and it shrunk by 0.81% (-900) in Q3 2014. Nonetheless, 4 quarters average currently stands at 111,700 which well ahead of the 4 quarters average through Q3 2013 which stood at 100,050.

Public and State-controlled sectors employment (basically state services, health and education) stood at 491,700 in Q3 2014, representing a rise of 2.33% y/y. In Q2 2014 sector employment rose 0.8% y/y. This is one of the few sectors (and the only one of the key three super-sectors identified here) that posted accelerated growth in employment in Q3 compared to Q2. Average for the four quarters through Q3 2014 stands at 492,030 which is 1.05% higher than the average for the four quarters through Q3 2013.



Let's take a different look at the numbers. Non-agricultural private sector employment in Q3 2014 was 13.83 lower than 2008 average. All employment was 9.47% lower and Agricultural employment was 4.9% lower. In contrast, public and state-controlled sectors employment in Q3 2014 was 3.56% higher than 2008 average.

Table below summarises changes for broader set of sectors.


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