Saturday, August 2, 2014

2/8/2014: Irish Manufacturing PMI: July 2014


Markit and Investec released Irish Manufacturing PMI this week. The numbers are pretty good:
  • Headline PMI stood at 55.4 in July 2014, against 55.3 in June.
  • 12mo average is at 54.0 and 3mo average is at 55.2. Readings above 54.3 are strong, so that's good news. Previous 3mo period average was 54.8 and both current 3mo average and previous are strongly above same period averages for 200-2013.
  • No comment from me on the rest of the index components as Investec no longer publishes any actual readings. Press release is here: http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/28b6c4cab7b94cef8d7f0b557c894220
Couple of charts: Index deviations from 50.0 and snapshot to current period, highlighting two periods of growth gains:


Dynamically, the data is showing significant reductions in volatility in recent months, with standard deviations trending around pre-crisis averages.

Top takeaways: improved trading conditions in the sector seem to be linked to overall gains in the external outlook in key exporting markets, which means Irish manufacturing remains locked into exogenous demand (subject to possible shocks) and remains anchored to the fortunes of the MNCs (subject to longer term risks to production relocations). Good news on short-term dynamics, but Ireland still lacks over-arching strategy for the sector.
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