Friday, June 6, 2014

6/6/2014: The King of Scariest Charts is Dead... Long Live the King...


Over recent years, I occasionally returned to the famous CalculatedRisk chart plotting jobs recovery in the Great Recession against the record of post-war US recessions. At last, today, the US economy has completed the arduous task of getting back to the pre-crisis level of employment.

The chart is completed:


The job is done. 76 months - longer than 46 months in the previous record-busting recession of 2001 - it took for the US economy to regain the pre-crisis milestone.

But the lessons are yet to be learned. Since 1981 recession, every recession has been worse and worse in terms of speed of jobs recovery. Why?

Since 1981 recession, the US deployed ever increasing firepower to fight off adverse effects of recession on jobs markets. And the task is not getting easier. Why?

And finally - a scary chart to replace the above scary chart: duration of unemployment in the US has been on a massive upswing during the current Great Recession and it is yet to yield its highs:




Scary charts do go away... but this one is likely to stay with us for some time... most likely - till the next recession hits...
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