CEPR and Banca d'Italia released their latest Eurocoin forecast for the euro area economy today. Here are the details:
- In May 2014, Eurocoin posted its first decline in 11 months, falling from 0.39 in April to 0.31. Still April-May 2014 forecast for GDP growth based on Eurocoin stood at 0.35% q/q, faster than any quarter since Q1 2011.
- The Eurocoin remained unchanged in June 2014, implying the overall average rate of growth of around 0.34%, a moderation on April-May forecast.
- Error-adjusted forecast range for growth is between 0.17% and 0.5%.
Per Banca d'Italia: "The deterioration in business confidence was counterbalanced by the positive contribution from the improved conditions in the financial markets and the pick-up in industrial activity."
Couple of charts to illustrate: