Thursday, May 8, 2014

8/5/2014: Irish Manufacturing & Services PMIs: April 2014

Irish Manufacturing and Services PMIs were out for April both showing aggregate gains, both not reported sufficiently in terms of data coverage to make any verifiable statements about composition of these gains.

Let's start from Manufacturing figures first:
  • April 2014 PMI reading was at 56.1 - which is well above statistically significant bound of expansion. 
  • 3mo MA through April is now at 54.8, some 1.9 points above 3mo MA reading though January 2014 and 5.5 points ahead y/y. Both good indicators of improving growth in the sector.


On Services side:
  • April 2014 PMI reading was at blistering 61.9 - which is strongly above statistically significant bound of expansion. 
  • 3mo MA through April is now at 60.0, basically flat on 3mo MA reading though January 2014 (60.13) and 2.8 points ahead y/y. Both good indicators of continued strong growth in the sector.




However, 3mo MA on 3mo MA changes are not spectacular in Services sector, as the chart below shows. This might simply be due to already sky-high readings attained in recent months.



Both indices show expansion in the economy (a changed from same period 2013) and as the chart below shows, correlation between the two indices is running strong (both co-move currently).



So based on top-level data, things are improving. The caveats are as usual:
  1. We have no idea what is happening on the underlying side of the above stats as Investec & Markit no longer make available sub-indices information
  2. Much of the PMIs-signalled activity is not coinciding with actual activity on the ground over the medium term (although some indications are that once we are firmly on growth trend path, the two sets of data - CSO and PMIs - will start comoving again).
In short, just as sell-side stockbrokers reports and Consumer Confidence Indicator, PMIs are least useful in telling the real story just when the demand for such story is most acute. 
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