Wednesday, May 7, 2014

7/5/2014: Russia PMIs: signalling second month of recessionary pressures



Russia's HSBC-Markit PMIs are signalling contracting economy for the second month in a row.

Manufacturing PMI is down at 48.5 which is marginally better (slower rate of contraction) than in March (48.3) and on par with the rate of decline measured in February (48.5). April marks the sixth consecutive month of below 50 readings.

3mo MA now stands at 48.4 which is down marginally from 48.7 for 3mo average through January 2014 and is down significantly on 51.1 3mo average back in February-April 2013.

Current 3mo average is statistically barely at the bound of recessionary reading (48.3).



Meanwhile, services index weakened further from March 47.7 to 46.8 in April. This is the second consecutive month of below 50 readings. 

3mo MA now stands at 48.4 which is down strongly from 52.2 for 3mo average through January 2014 and is down massively on 54.5 3mo average back in February-April 2013.

Current 3mo average is statistically below the bound of recessionary reading (47.2).



Composite PMI is also in a second consecutive monthly reading below 50.0 - March 2014 was 47.8 and April 2014 came in at 47.6.

3mo MA is at 48.5 which is down on 51.5 for 3mo average through January 2014 and is down significantly on 53.6 3mo average back in February-April 2013.

Current 3mo average is statistically above the bound of recessionary reading (47.6).


It is worth noting that weaknesses in Russian Composite PMI started well ahead of the current geopolitical risks amplification and reflect structural issues with the Russian economy. However, the rate of decline as well as weakness spread across two sectors increased since the beginning of this year.
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