Tuesday, May 6, 2014

6/5/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, April

BlackRock Institute published their April 2014 survey of economic conditions in EMEA region. Here are some takeaways:
  1. "The consensus of respondents describe Russia, Slovenia, Croatia, Turkey and Turkey to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Kazakhstan and Egypt to be a in a recessionary or contraction."
  2. "Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for only Egypt."
  3. "At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Slovenia, Turkey, Russia and the Ukraine."

Russian economy specifics:
  • "How do you think Russia's economy will develop over the next 12 months?" 72% of respondents expect economy to become weaker or a lot weaker
  • "At this time, in which phase of the economic cycle would you say Russia's economy is?" 100% of respondents estimate that the Russian economy is currently in a recession.
  • "Over the next 6 months, in which phase of the economic cycle would you say Russia's economy will be?" 86% of respondents expect Russian economy to remain in a recession.
  • 57% of respondents estimate that currently Russian economy is operating with a positive or zero output gap.
  • 71% of respondents estimate that currently Russian economy operates at above trend inflation that is increasing.

"Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 78% of 40 respondents expecting a  strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 9% decrease from the net 87% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

Note: Red dot represents South Africa, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Israel, Poland and Slovakia.

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts

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