Saturday, May 17, 2014

17/5/2014: Long-term unemployment: Sticky & Alarming


Things are pretty bad on the long-term unemployment front in Ireland. I covered this earlier here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/05/1552014-innovation-employment-growth.html and here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/05/1552014-jobs-employment-lot-done-more.html

But another look shows some truly dire comparatives.


Take long-term unemployed as proportion of all unemployed - you get two insights:

  1. The proportion is rising. In Q3 2013 it was 58.4% and in Q4 2013 it rose to 61.4%. That's right, more than 6 out of 10 unemployed have been jobless more than a year, continuously. We do not know those who have been jobless more than 6 months (the cut-off point beyond which some research starts showing long-term deterioration in skills and aptitude).
  2. The proportion is sticky in the long run - it has been above 50% since Q3 2010 and above 56% since Q4 2010. Un-yielding. 


The second bit relates to the proportion of long-term recipients of LR supports - this too yields two conclusions:

  1. It is rising as well: up from 45.4% in Q4 2013 to 45.8% in Q1 2014.
  2. And it is on a rising trend over time.


But here's a damning thingy: all this long-term unemployment sustains our 'productivity' gains and competitiveness 'improvements': http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/05/1652014-competitive-sports-of.html
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