Thursday, April 10, 2014

10/4/2014: Irish Composite Activity Indicator (CAI) based on PMIs: Q1 2014


Based on monthly PMI data, here is the blog-exclusive quarterly Composite PMI series. These take quarterly averages for Manufacturing and Services PMIs for Ireland (compiled by Markit and published by Investec Ireland) and weighting them up on the basis of quarterly weights of each sector in the Private Sector contributions to GDP (based on CSO National Accounts Data).

Here is the chart showing both PMIs and the composite index compiled by myself. 



So on a quarterly averages basis:
  • Manufacturing PMI rose 0.25% q/q having previously been up 1.70% in Q4 2013. Year on year, Q1 2014 PMI came at 10.45% above Q1 2013 and this marks an improvement on 6.55% growth y/y recorded in Q4 2013. We are now into 3rd consecutive quarter of above 50.0 average performance.
  • Services PMI rose 0.39% q/q having previously been up 3.28% in Q4 2013. Year on year, Q1 2014 PMI came at 7.18% above Q1 2013 and this marks an improvement on 3.14% growth y/y recorded in Q4 2013. We are now into 3rd consecutive quarter of above 50.0 average performance.
  • Composite PMI reading is at 58.4 in Q1 2014 and this is 0.36% higher than in Q4 2013 and 10.16% higher than in Q1 2013. Q1 2014 marked 16th consecutive quarter of composite index reading above 50.0.

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