Friday, November 15, 2013

15/11/2013: Primary Balances: Government Deficit Risks

While looking at Ireland's risk dynamics relating to our exit from the Bailout (covered here: it is useful to think about the Government deficits ex-interest payments on debt. Here are the latest projections from the IMF:

For now, Ireland is running behind Portugal. By end of 2014, we are expected to overtake Portugal, but thereafter we are expected to remain behind Italy and Greece.

Not exactly a risk-free sailing there for the so-called 'best student in class'... Still, we are heading to posting our first crisis-period primary surplus.
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