Thursday, October 31, 2013

31/10/2013: NAIRU or NDRU? Euro Area Inflation Hits 0.7% in October

So Euro area unemployment rate remained stuck at 12.2% in September, same as in August 2013 and up on 11.6% in September 2012. 18,451,000 Euro area residents were unemployed back in September 2012 and this rose to 19,447,000 a year later. Meanwhile, in the US, unemployment rolls fell from 12,093,000 to 11,254,000 and the rate dipped from 7.8% to 7.2%.

With inflation (HICP) coming at 0.7% in October, so we are now no longer in the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) environment, but rather closing on what I would call a Near-Deflationary Rate of Unemployment (NDRU)... welcome to the madness of European econo-politics, where the Central Bank is powerless to do much to re-inflate the economy and fiscal authorities are powerless to restart growth, while households and companies struggle under the weights of debts.

Two charts:

Leading growth indicator Eurocoin (see more detailed analysis in the next blogpost) has improved somewhat in October, but monetary policy remains stuck in zero-bound, zero-power corner. And ditto for inflationary signals:

We are now at the lowest rate since November 2009 when it comes to HICP.

Good news, ECB can now easily move to 0.25% rate... but will it? Ask Angela...
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