Friday, July 5, 2013

5/7/2012: Epically scary chart

Via Calculated Risk:

Basically, since 1981 recession, duration of the subsequent jobs losses has been longer and longer and longer. The duration spread has risen from 3 months between  1981 and 1990 recessions, to 14 months between 1990 and 2001 episodes to now 19 months and still counting. At current run rate, we are looking at 77-78 months duration and this will bring the spread to ca 33 months.

Thus spreads: 3-->14-->33.
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