Friday, July 26, 2013

26/7/2013: Eurocoin signals 22nd consecutive month of recession

CEPR and Banca d'Italia leading growth indicator for the euro area, Eurocoin, is out for July, showing that growth in the euro area economy remained under water for 22nd month in a row.



Per charts above,

  • Eurocoin indicator stood at -0.09 in July, an improvement in the rate of contraction on -0.18 in June 2013 and on -0.24% in July 2012.
  • Both, 3mo MA and 6mo MA of Eurocoin through July 2013 are at -0.14.
  • Q2 2013 forecast for growth is now at -0.15 and Q3 2013 forecast (based on July and trend) is slightly more benign -0.1-0.11, though that is a very high risk forecast.  

Looking at the 'Impossible Monetary Policy Dilemma':



ECB rates are at zero bound and are not stirring growth, with HICP being in the 'safely benign' territory. We are looking at a scenario where the only reason not to drop rates to zero is that doing so will not make any serious difference to growth.
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