Wednesday, May 8, 2013

8/5/2013: Blackrock Institute Survey: N. America and W. Europe, May 2013

Just as I published April update from Blackrock Investment Institute Economic Cycle surveys, here comes May one for North America and Western Europe:

 Now, note change in Ireland's position compared to April:

May summary:
And conclusions (italics are mine):
"This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a large shift on the outlook for global growth over the next 12 months – although a net proportion of respondents remains positive, this is now a figure of 41%, compared with a net 71% last month. [In other words, things are turning gloomier for global growth outlook]

With regards to the US, the proportion of respondents expecting recession over the next 6 months remains low, with the consensus view firmly that North America as whole is in mid-cycle expansion. [In other words, current growth rates are not expected to rise much as would have been consistent with early-cycle expansion]

In Europe, the view continues to be more disparate, with a generally stronger northern Europe contrasted by continuing weakness in Eurozone as a whole. Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain in particular are described in a recessionary state, with the consensus view remaining in this phase at the 6 month horizon in each case."
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