Friday, April 26, 2013

26/4/2013: Meanwhile, Patients Still Run the Euro Policy Asylum...

Headlines (via

  • Angela Merkel: "The European Central Bank would really have to increase the interest rates for Germany";
  • Angela Merkel also said that for other countries, the ECB would have to provide more liquidity for companies;
  • German economics minister Phillip Rosler issued a statement to confirm that the ECB was still an independent central bank;
  • ECB officials, meanwhile, played down expectations that a rate cut would have much of an effect;
  • Joerg Asmussen did not rule out an interest rate cut, but was playing down expectations. He said lower interest rates could work in ways not intended by the ECB, and added that they had virtually no effect in the periphery due to the broken transmission mechanisms;
  • Benoit Coeure as saying that the ECB had done what it can. It was now up to all the European institutions to find ways to solve the problem;
  • Wolfgang Schauble said Italy’s problems were a lack of reforms, and that it would be wrong to blame others for their own misfortune. "... in the eurozone everybody had to solve their own problems. And that is is what Italy needed to do as well. There was no point in asking Germany to take on more debt. Everybody had to run their government in a responsible way";
  • Schauble also said that it would be wrong for member states to depart from austerity path, saying the eurozone problems had nothing to do with strict budget rules, and that "somebody should tell Barroso that".

Conclusion: rest assured - the screw up known as "Euro area policy" will go on unabated no matter what JMBarosso & Co are saying.

ECB rate cut might come or it might not, but it will be minor (25bps) and one-off (with rates unchanged throughout the rest of the year) and it will do no difference whatsoever, other than fuel anti-inflationary rhetoric in pre-election Germany.

Fiscal policy will remain largely unchanged with some states (France, Italy, even Spain?) adopting an Irish-government approach to 'stimulus': find one-off non-tax, like pensions funds expropriation, to fund 'jobs creation programme', while leaving net fiscal adjustments intact. Which will, of course, amount to short-term reallocation of productive funds to unproductive GDP supports, with medium-term negative impact of tax increases and reduced confidence in economic institutions.
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